This monthly chart shows the Dow DJI index and the Average True Range indicator ATR which measures volatility. Note the textbook triangle in ATR in which has now reached the end of wave 'e' at the same time that the DJI has just thrown over the long term parallel trendlines drawn from waves 2 to 4 and wave 3.Good Luck
Thanks Geoff for your big picture view, it seems like Novembers candle 'could' be the last upwards candle for this Bull Market unless price decides to create a throw over.
It does look like upwards movement is very limited now.
Interesting to me is the marked weakness seen in our FTSE 100 as of late, could it be leading the U.S. markets I wonder (The European markets rolled over before the U.S. in 1929 I believe).
Paul
Geofftv1
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@Chiefstorm, Paul, you are correct, the FTSE often leads the US markets when a downturn starts. This is aided by the lack of tech companies. I think FTSE us in wave 3 now and if correct the drop should gather speed soon.
@Geofftv1: are you short DJI? I covered my entire ES short at 260x yesterday (PM'ed @pittpitt123 in real time) and re-shorted 100% towards the cash close. For SPX, I think the 2658 high should not be exceeded in a closing basis for the next 4 weeks; partial stops in place in case I'm wrong.
Geofftv1
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@Teich50, Yes, I am now short DJI and FTSE , I have made 250pips on FTSE so far. For DHI I am short with a tight SL as I think there may be one last push next week.
Teich50
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@Geofftv1, not sure why you chose to stop DJI, as I think it is stronger than SPX, NDX, and RUT. I'm watch XLF -- if the banks top out, SPX and DJI should top out too.
Geofftv1
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@Teich50, Below is a close up of the inflexion point of 2 major trend lines, when DJI closes below the bottom line I think we can safely say that the bull tide has turned.
Until then I have a small short on DJI as I expect a few oscillations around these lines!
Teich50
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@Geofftv1, Good call on one last push. DJI futures went up to 24463 on Sunday so far.
ibb.co/dNge9b