Past days more and more information are available about the Bridegwater Shortpositions in Europe. This are the facts:
Known Shortpositions:
6,3 Mrd. Euro: DAX 3,0 Mrd. Euro: Italien 1,2 Mrd. Euro: IBEX35 Werte 1,1 Mrd. Euro: Total 0,7 Mrd. Euro: Sanofi 0,6 Mrd. Euro: BNP 0,5 Mrd. Euro: ING 0,5 Mrd. Euro: ASML Holding 0,5 Mrd. Euro: AXA ------------------ 13,30 Mrd. Euro or 16,5 Bn. Dollar (sources below)
According to bloomberg.com & Zerohedge this is the largest Shortposition in Bridgewaters History. But: Bridgewater can not sell at least stocks worth 16,5 Stocks naked according new European regualtions:
Quote: "EU Regulation on Short Selling and certain aspects of credit default swaps N 236/2012 came into force on 1 November 2012 with the aim of achieving the following: Quote: The Regulation means that in relation to the short selling of shares and of sovereign debt instruments and the taking of sovereign credit default swaps positions the following requirements apply: All short sales of shares must be covered by either having borrowed them, having arranged to borrow them; or have an arrangement with a third party confirming their location (i.e. naked short selling in shares is now banned);" Source: esma.europa.eu/regulation/trading/short-selling
To sell stocks short for 16,5 Billion US Dollar there are just 3 ways to do it:
1. Bridgewater ownes this stocks. 2. Bridgewater borrowed this stocks. 3. Both of each.
This are my questions:
- If a hedgefonds borrows stocks about up to 16,5 Billions - how does this works? - Who is giving this stocks to Bridegwater? - How many Traders know about or are involved in this transactions?
For European Stockmarkets at least 16,5 Billion US Dollar short sold stocks in this short period of times are not "small potatoes".
a) Allianz keeps absolutely quite trusting that stockmarkets are a functional system b) Allianz is going to defend itself agains an aggressive shortseller c) Shareholders from Allianz of other company adding pressure to the boards to defend against bridgewater d) More traders getting involved in this stocks and long or short them on what will happen now.
so what is my risk now if:
a) shorting the market b) or long the market
Bridgewater could not short stocks maybe for 1 or 2 Billion only? No. They want to make something like "the big short". And expecting that all those companies keeps absolutely quite. Banca Intesa Sanpaolo is showing us absolutely clearly, that some CEO aren´t quite and just let Bridgewater do whatever they want to do. This is my risk - and i have no idea to calculate this risk.
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BRIDGEWATER net short TOTAL SA 1,1 Bn Euro on February 8 2018. TOTAL vows 5 bn stock buy back program - on February 8 2018 as well.
Read more (please click on the chart):
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Bridgewater: Total Volume short Europe 18,57 bn.
6,3 Mrd. Euro: Italien 3,0 Mrd. Euro: Italien 1,2 Mrd. Euro: IBEX35 Werte 1,4 Mrd. Euro: AEX: ING/ASML/Philips/Unilever 1,1 Mrd. Euro: Total 0,7 Mrd. Euro: Sanofi -1.32% 0,6 Mrd. Euro: BNP 0,3 Mrd. Euro: Airbus 0,5 Mrd. Euro: AXA -1.64% ------------------ 15,1 Mrd. Euro 0.21% or 18.57 Bn Dollar
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio says in a LinkedIn blog post that the Federal Reserve's response to better-than-expected economic data and more fiscal spending may lead to an economic slowdown. "What we do know is that we are in the part of the cycle in which the central banks' getting monetary policy right is difficult and that this time around the balancing act will be especially difficult," he writes. The firm manages about $160 billion, according to its website.
European stocks bounce back, as investors shake off US inflation data
The euro area economy maintained a healthy growth pace at the end of last year, paving the way for another robust performance in 2018. U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected, sparking fears over inflation. The Consumer Price Index increased 0.5 percent in January. Volatility in the region followed the much-anticipated U.S. inflation data, which came in above expectations. cnbc.com/2018/02/14/europe-markets-seen-higher-amid-earnings-and-economic-data.html
Latest news & developments: Please click on the chart to load new facts & figures. Please try to use translator. This source is available in German language only.
update: Follow the history of headlines - it´s self explaining. The headlines are showing, how long even Zerohedge needs to understand, what´s going on and how huge the short is (fo a single hedgefonds - and for European Stockmarkets). There are also now traders starting to buy what Dalio sold. And they are right in stocks like Airbus wich made a new all time high on Friday, January 16th.
It's Dalio Versus Everyone Else as Money Flows to Europe
I’m surprised. That’s a big bet. Dalio and his team are very confident,” said Rick Herman, managing director of asset allocation who helps oversee about $30 billion at BB&T Institutional Investment Advisors Inc. “That’s definitely out of consensus. European stocks are cheaper, and they also have stronger earnings growth.” bloombergquint.com/markets/2018/02/26/it-s-dalio-versus-everyone-else-as-money-flows-to-europe-stocks
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Just to compare: US-Investors sold assets for 41 Bn USD in a full month. BRIDGEWATER sold stocks for at least 22 Bn USD just within a few days only. Same time Europe’s Stockmarket is much smaller than the US Stockmarket.
„Investors staged a near-record exodus from US stocks in February
The borrowers must be aware of what is happening. Maybe they speculate on rising markets and use the premiums in order to buy further stock at the bottom? There is definitely something "fishy". Have a look at this article, especially the connection to KPMG looks strange to me...
@NonOlet, issue is, that maybe allmost 20 billion Euro short sold stock by just one hedgefunds is to much not having an effect on stockmarkets. The Banca Intesa Sanpaolo chart is showing what can happen even a stock is shorted so massively. If just one trader holds close to 1% of available stocks wich means the full turnover to cover for 2,2 days based on avarage volume than retail traders needs to deal with this. Hedefunds are acting more aggressively than other Institutional Investors - probalby - and they dont needt to care about markets reaction. So - how can i calculate my risk?
NonOlet
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@SwissView, you probably can't. I am so looking forward to the Italy election, and to be honest, I assume it will be the start of Europe's gap close to US indices. We'll see...
a) Allianz keeps absolutely quite trusting that stockmarkets are a functional system
b) Allianz is going to defend itself agains an aggressive shortseller
c) Shareholders from Allianz of other company adding pressure to the boards to defend against bridgewater
d) More traders getting involved in this stocks and long or short them on what will happen now.
so what is my risk now if:
a) shorting the market
b) or long the market
Bridgewater could not short stocks maybe for 1 or 2 Billion only? No. They want to make something like "the big short". And expecting that all those companies keeps absolutely quite. Banca Intesa Sanpaolo is showing us absolutely clearly, that some CEO aren´t quite and just let Bridgewater do whatever they want to do. This is my risk - and i have no idea to calculate this risk.
NonOlet
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@SwissView, I understand that, especially taking in mind what Ray said in Davos 2 weeks ago...
Globally: I guess the moment of truth in the upcoming weeks will be earnings and if additional companies announce buy-back programs (and show trust in themselves). For example, I expect SAP to do so when announcing Q1/18 earnings. Additional risk when shorting European equities - and I dont think Ray has taken this in consideration - is Trump and Mnunchins new plan to aim for a Strong USD.
I expect many companies to react to the huge net short positions - they owe it to shareholders, in order to keep their trust...
NonOlet
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@NonOlet, But to be completely honest with you, both sides look promising right now, and you can argue in both directions. I dont know how to answer your question...
SwissView
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@NonOlet, "I expect many companies to react to the huge net short positions - they owe it to shareholders, in order to keep their trust... "
This is what we might need to calculate - but how can we know about?
NonOlet
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@SwissView, You simply cant. But Ray cant either - and this might break his neck and lead to a short squeeze in European equities. European CEOs and their boards are very powerful right now... :-)
SwissView
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@NonOlet, Latest news & developments: Please click on the chart to load new facts & figures. Please try to use translator. This source is available in German language only.
dealbreaker.com/2017/10/report-when-it-comes-to-regulatory-disclosures-bridgewater-is-radically-opaque/