ruebennase

NIFTY200/SENSEX...Pullback in a wave ((iv))!

NSE:CNX200   NIFTY 200
Hello Traders,
thank you all for your comments and feedback to the video issue. I decided to turn back to the one with written words. As we all see now, it is very helpful to comment and/or give feedback at anytime. Again, thank you for your support.
Lets analyse today NIFTY200, which in my view shows the clearest pattern at moment for Indian Markets, as did SENSEX too.
By following the DOW Theory it is not really important from a traders perspective to analyse the same marketd in any timeframe, because at DOW Theory the broader market rise or decline in unison. So I always look and check the markets for the clearest wave structure and this one will be the favorit for today. Tomorrow is another day and maybe another market is the one I analyse.
On a Weekly timeframe NIFTY200 shows a „bearish Engulfing“ by ending last week. Normaly a 2-3 week decline is the consequence of that reversal pattern. So for now, the second red candle is painted at chart, and a kind of a „Doji“ candle has occur. This implies a „uncertain“ behavior of traders.
By observing RSI (14) you will notice that the indicaror is trading above 50 area, which indicate for now an intact Bull market is in place and just a pullback is on the move. This is the message as long RSI is trading above that level by weekly close.
The top at NIFTY200 @ 6078.75 reached to nearly the 1.618 FibRT at 6122.40 and fullfil in acceptable manner the guideline for an extending wave (( iii             ))! A pullback to the zone @ 52xx is the 0.382 FibRT of the distance at the complete lenght of wave (( iii             )) and a common target zone for a wave ((iv)) pullback.
More bearish potenciall exist and the „MoB“ (Make or break) for the impulsive count is the high of wave (i) at 4774.0! If this level will be touched just by one tick onother pattern is on the move and we have to anaylse new.
By observing SENSEX (not shown) you will see the same pattern as there is a „bearish Engulfing“ and the end of an advance within a wave (( iii             )). Here the „MoB“ for the impulsiv pattern is placed at 30024. RSI is also trading at 54 and the message is the same as it is for NIFTY200.
If there is the possibility for traders to view the ADL             (Advance-decline-line) to chart, observe this helpful tool to analyse, because the ADL             often top out befor markets did at the end of a long advance.
So thats it for a quick note ( :-)).
Have a great weekend...
ruebennase

Questions and Comments are welcome!  
Note!---> This analysis can be wrong. It is just in my view the one with the most probabiltity with the Data which are available to me and by my interpretation of the EW Theory. If you trade this it is done by your own risk and decision! Keep that in Mind!!!!  

Data by NSEIndia.com and moneycontrol.com!
Thanks
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