A sick market - China 10 year bonds future market
Today let's look at the China 10 year bonds future market.
As the most important market of controlling the inflation , those "jigou" ( securities company hedging manager in Chinese) are buying this market into Renminbi interests lower which is canceling the 13th. March hike. This has caused 3 months inflation lower in China till the June. ( maybe they're saving their ass from the buying failure in 2016)
There's a system bug between "zhengjianhui" ( China Securities Regulatory Commission in Chinese) and the PBOC as an administration absence in China 10 year bonds future market.
This market has no administration, crazy...
I here urge the China authorities assembling a super administration bank like the U.K or the USA as soon as possible. With a new rising cycle beginning those bugs could damage the safety of financial system in the future
As the most important market of controlling the inflation , those "jigou" ( securities company hedging manager in Chinese) are buying this market into Renminbi interests lower which is canceling the 13th. March hike. This has caused 3 months inflation lower in China till the June. ( maybe they're saving their ass from the buying failure in 2016)
There's a system bug between "zhengjianhui" ( China Securities Regulatory Commission in Chinese) and the PBOC as an administration absence in China 10 year bonds future market.
This market has no administration, crazy...
I here urge the China authorities assembling a super administration bank like the U.K or the USA as soon as possible. With a new rising cycle beginning those bugs could damage the safety of financial system in the future
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Please look at the US 10Y bonds market it's good, regular. I simulate it's moving before the BOE and May's set up.
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Just a guess...
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In a condition of negative interests in Euro dollar, if you bought something with an huge capital, the price will go down. Because the "Axis" isn't inverted, central banks don't care about it because of they don't know the mechanism of the negative thing and they used it.
Let's look at some mathematics here...
Let's look at some mathematics here...
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More and more evidences are proving the FRB and the ECB may not know the negative interests mechanism or they're cheating by hurting themselves.
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This chart published on the 3rd. Jan 2017 is still working...
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The U.K bonds 2Y yield
previously,
now,
previously,
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Only if the BOE decides to negative Sterling interests will lead to Pound heading south. There're 3 members voted for hike during last meeting.
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Be careful with EURO BOND...
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German BONDS 2Y yield... (published on the 6th. Jan 2017, sorry for the rough but the picture is over there)
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USDCNY Vs. US 2Y BONDS yield/RENMINBI 2Y BONDS yield Vs. DXY ( Renminbi's loan interests going higher for suppress house price to let capital flow into stock market, the A shares)
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This's not a trading signal. The red arrow is an previous hook of DXY, the pink arrow is an forming hook now.
The fall could be abysmal.
The fall could be abysmal.
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Source: ( News in Chinese, a supply interesting...)
news.10jqka.com.cn/2...619/c598911208.shtml
news.10jqka.com.cn/2...619/c598911208.shtml
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Aren't they beautiful? than partial animal being? target 0.4 as a crab...
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Thank you for your likes! I adjusted some patterns and labeled cypher on chart.
To be clear, this is not a trading signal service and the time is often long ahead of the moving, if you trades technics then I suggest keeping trading it, long term perspective and correlations are analysts specialties, where you should avoid those big risks you can't afford.
To be clear, this is not a trading signal service and the time is often long ahead of the moving, if you trades technics then I suggest keeping trading it, long term perspective and correlations are analysts specialties, where you should avoid those big risks you can't afford.
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Please check out those 10 month SMA on monthly chart after June's close, DXY, EU, UJ, XAU, TLT, commodities, stocks, A shares, SPX500, DAX30, etc...
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Nomura Securities predicted the BOE hike on 3rd. August.
The PBOC may softly raise deposits interests once for 2017 in August where western central banks in summer holidays.
The PBOC may softly raise deposits interests once for 2017 in August where western central banks in summer holidays.
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TNX is very scary in monthly chart also it's above 10 months SMA, in weekly view the grande cycle trend line and the smaller cycle trend line may be tested soon. Don't be panic here, those US dollar hikes have only one final destiny: after some climbs they must purchase again. The down side space now is ok for the markets have some years to go up.
The inflation is crashing now, be careful, it's the final squeezing and may consolidate for many moths for waiting A shares topping cycle.
The inflation is crashing now, be careful, it's the final squeezing and may consolidate for many moths for waiting A shares topping cycle.
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TNX monthly target 0.4% as a crab pattern, the topping cycle may last months from 2017 or longer, it depends on how high the A shares can go. China stock market new highs should be seen in the future, if Chinese have an art of control, we may last as long as we can do.
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Now we must watch out the China Government 10Y bonds future market for buying it into a negative again.
Looking back the China bonds market, it's crazy, it's no administration in there...
Looking back the China bonds market, it's crazy, it's no administration in there...
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I told you guys "China bonds market is a no administration market..."
Be careful, Renminbi middle term interests is going into negative area.
Be careful, Renminbi middle term interests is going into negative area.
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I suggest western investors avoiding of participating this sick market.
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In a condition of negative interests if you buy assets like stocks, commodities, any Renminbi measuring investment, it'll cause the price failure. Only if the Renminbi huge hike can inverse it.
My point is clear. Before the hike western investors should avoid buying any of China assets in case your investment shrinks in the future.
My point is clear. Before the hike western investors should avoid buying any of China assets in case your investment shrinks in the future.
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Because China doesn't have the Forex market which is a key to money policy working if Renminbi is doing something like ECB in 2013, it'll be a disaster again. That's why Renminbi lost currency war in 2015. The bonds market is sick, the price and the interests isn't match. Many currencies have taken advantages from it.
China has developed nuclear weapon on the hardware side but on the software side the market hasn't been developed well. There're still many things have to learn from western culture.
"Too much arrogant makes it stupid."
"zi da yi dian nian ge chou." in Chinese.
China has developed nuclear weapon on the hardware side but on the software side the market hasn't been developed well. There're still many things have to learn from western culture.
"Too much arrogant makes it stupid."
"zi da yi dian nian ge chou." in Chinese.
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Source: FXCM.
Looks like FRB will cut sheet by in stead of purchasing more government-guaranteed enterprises real estate mortgage bonds. The China PBOC is holding 10Y US government Bonds. They will be stupid enough to hold it. I don't think the PBOC could buy government-guaranteed enterprises real estate mortgage bonds.
08/17 the fed buys $420 million of government-guaranteed enterprises real estate mortgage bonds.
08/18 the fed buys $1.19 billion in government-guaranteed enterprises real estate mortgage bonds.
08/22 the fed buys $1.65 billion in government-guaranteed enterprises real estate mortgage bonds.
Looks like FRB will cut sheet by in stead of purchasing more government-guaranteed enterprises real estate mortgage bonds. The China PBOC is holding 10Y US government Bonds. They will be stupid enough to hold it. I don't think the PBOC could buy government-guaranteed enterprises real estate mortgage bonds.
08/17 the fed buys $420 million of government-guaranteed enterprises real estate mortgage bonds.
08/18 the fed buys $1.19 billion in government-guaranteed enterprises real estate mortgage bonds.
08/22 the fed buys $1.65 billion in government-guaranteed enterprises real estate mortgage bonds.
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Today we bring good news for traders in stock market, the A shares market is starting the first impulse which we're looking for 4 months rising till the end of 2017. Because of global stock market is sharing the same risk appetite, this will support SPX500 and DAX30 and will help the US dollar stable too.
Source: ( News in Chinese. We have 1,550 Billion Chinese Yuan 2007-2017 China 10 year bonds matured in the August and later months where's a very sensitive window to the market)
money.163.com/17/081...S3MDPUA002580S6.html
"The deposite reserve requirement at commercial Banks in a low of 1.3%, the central bank's liquidity of hedge operation is necessary."
The PBOC starts to purchase China 10 year bonds future market again or saying they're flushing the bonds market, of course there will be a stream flowing into the stock market.
Source: ( News in Chinese. We have 1,550 Billion Chinese Yuan 2007-2017 China 10 year bonds matured in the August and later months where's a very sensitive window to the market)
money.163.com/17/081...S3MDPUA002580S6.html
"The deposite reserve requirement at commercial Banks in a low of 1.3%, the central bank's liquidity of hedge operation is necessary."
The PBOC starts to purchase China 10 year bonds future market again or saying they're flushing the bonds market, of course there will be a stream flowing into the stock market.
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Source: ( If the Debt-Ceiling isn't extended on Oct. the US bonds AAA class will be down graded. I still remember the Oct. 2013 where Obama's too responsible to default but now we have Trump... The market is showing us the impact will be bigger than last time in 2013)
www.barrons.com/arti...e-markets-1504646270
www.barrons.com/arti...e-markets-1504646270
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U.K BONDS 2Y yield is working as predicted.
U.K BONDS 10Y yield is crossing the trend line.
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Interests, inflation, stocks, GDP data, a global positive cycle shall begin after an inflation reset to zero.
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New prediction is suggesting that the Bonds market bull run has been done. If interests, inflations, stocks, Yen, are all rising. Bonds price should be the compensation and the DXY, the Renminbi are both compensation...
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Traders, some market behaviors in the China stock market are showing us an Yuan's deposit hike in Oct. may happen. The "Shibor" interests has already recovered 2014 level. It may cut too but no likely in a condition where the FRB cuts sheet.
We've known the Bonds bulls are done, with the FRB cutting sheet, Renminbi's deposit hike looks like underway after the important 19th. meeting.
It's delayed by 2 years from the US dollar's hike, unbelievable late... 2 years has been wasted...
We've known the Bonds bulls are done, with the FRB cutting sheet, Renminbi's deposit hike looks like underway after the important 19th. meeting.
It's delayed by 2 years from the US dollar's hike, unbelievable late... 2 years has been wasted...
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Source: The China government bonds 10Y yield is breaking 3.7%, please play our title chart too look for a horizon breaking. (News in Chinese)
finance.qq.com/a/20171016/015974.htm
In a condition where the US dollar will do a QT (quantitative tightening) and hikes more with keeping the USDCNY stable, the Renminbi's tightening and hikes will continue.
finance.qq.com/a/20171016/015974.htm
In a condition where the US dollar will do a QT (quantitative tightening) and hikes more with keeping the USDCNY stable, the Renminbi's tightening and hikes will continue.
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We suggest western investors avoiding trading China bonds market in case of the price and the yields isn't match because of the interests is controlled by banks but not trough the trading in the market.
This chart is not a signal.
This chart is not a signal.
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The bonds markets are now needing a Yuan's hike which is making China bonds 10Y yields falling and the Renminbi making devaluation with the US dollar. We've seen the same behavior in 2015 the US dollar first hike (huge one) and in 2016-2017 the second hike (following smaller hikes).
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A Renminbi's small rates cut on Nov. 2017 is predicted today, there might be a second cut on Dec. 2017, then a flat and a pegging with US dollar. Bullish signal for China stocks market in 20 months but chose your sectors wisely ( chuangye sector may be the best one).
This's the newest prediction which will meet the 6.83 plat form and an USDCNY pegging for 20 months for sharing the same inflation with USA (will be lower after 20 months pegging).
President Trump prefers regularity and force, this is what he wants and also fulfills the China new dictator's growing appetites... ugly than Trump.
Bullish now.
This's the newest prediction which will meet the 6.83 plat form and an USDCNY pegging for 20 months for sharing the same inflation with USA (will be lower after 20 months pegging).
President Trump prefers regularity and force, this is what he wants and also fulfills the China new dictator's growing appetites... ugly than Trump.
Bullish now.
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Bullish for price, yield lower.
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With Chinese Yuan’s last 2 cutting ( USDCNY rises by +0.2 like Aug. 2015 from 6.63 to 6.83 plat form) will ideally push US Government 10Y bonds yields down quickly by -0.6% to 1.8% in 2 months, then an huge hike from new FRB members. After the huge hike the US Government 10Y bonds yields should be pushed down by -1.0% to 0.8% in 2018.
My chart published on 24th. June 2017 showed a final target at 0.4% with a crab pattern.
My chart published on 24th. June 2017 showed a final target at 0.4% with a crab pattern.
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The UJ is fully covered by the yields, watch out the abyss.
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The wave count and the patterns ( harmonics patterns and commodity/stock patterns) are the languages you understand the market. The way you see it or say it or draw it should be very simple and clear, no mistakes. Also those charts should show you trading way.
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China Government 10Y bonds yield may reverse the high from 3.8% ( wrong direction before, if 3.7% will be confirmed broken) It should have followed US 10 years bonds. The China 2 years bonds has been corrected already which has been pointed it out wrong by the 7th. Aug. 2017 chart.
The real interests is showing us that the Renminbi's inter bank interests has the same level in Nov. 2014 at 4% in 3 months swap and in all terms. The cutting condition may have been met. This cutting prediction is only for the USDCNY plat form ( Now it looks like the 6.8ish for avoiding the 6.83 truncation before) Which will be a "jiangzhun" because the deposit rates is very low.
Source: China Foreign Exchange Center website
www.chinamoney.com.cn/
The real interests is showing us that the Renminbi's inter bank interests has the same level in Nov. 2014 at 4% in 3 months swap and in all terms. The cutting condition may have been met. This cutting prediction is only for the USDCNY plat form ( Now it looks like the 6.8ish for avoiding the 6.83 truncation before) Which will be a "jiangzhun" because the deposit rates is very low.
Source: China Foreign Exchange Center website
www.chinamoney.com.cn/
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The China Government bonds future market is losing control today... We always suggest western investors avoiding trading this sick market before it's ruled. This may cause US inflation failure because of the USDCNY small range pegging.
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A Renminbi's deposit rates hike may have been hidden by the PBOC. Something like the year of 2010 is happening in the markets now. When the western people are enjoying the inflations and the stocks rising the China markets are taking hits by the Japanese Yen's rising. If China hikes the US hike shall be paused soon, they let the risks open fire at will.
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US government bonds 10 year yield has begun to drop. Watch out, an abyss... monthly target to 0.4% as a crab pattern at an extreme level has been predicted on on 24th. June 2017.
I have to say China bonds market is a shit.
I have to say China bonds market is a shit.
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The Sterling hikes 0.25% today and the UK government bonds 10 year yield is dropping, 2Y is dropping hard.
Traders should know that the interests hiking will attract the buyers and the interests is dropping from mathematic negative correlation.
Now you see the China is a shit market.
Traders should know that the interests hiking will attract the buyers and the interests is dropping from mathematic negative correlation.
Now you see the China is a shit market.
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Let's see how high it's gonna go (4.0%-4.1% first target form 2016 low) and how low the price will trigger the purchasing. The yields higher and the price lower, bearish in price, until those real hikes in the deposit interests. The China bonds market isn't ruled, yet. We always suggest western investors avoiding trading this market, it's a chaos.
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Consider the low on 21st. Oct. 2016 is the lowest yield on the title chart of China 10Y bonds as an leading index, and usually we have 20 months lagging from the capital flow.
2016/10/21+20 = 2016/30/21 = 2016+24+6/21 = 2018/6/21, so we should have an hike window in Chinese Renminbi on that Date. Also after an hike we should have an hiking cycle may last in 12 months (2016/10/21~2017/10/31) at least.
The hike on this Dec. 2017 maybe "the last" one in Dollar, the FRB may let the market go firing at will...
2016/10/21+20 = 2016/30/21 = 2016+24+6/21 = 2018/6/21, so we should have an hike window in Chinese Renminbi on that Date. Also after an hike we should have an hiking cycle may last in 12 months (2016/10/21~2017/10/31) at least.
The hike on this Dec. 2017 maybe "the last" one in Dollar, the FRB may let the market go firing at will...
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1, A possible window ( USDCNY bottomed) on
2013/12+20 = 2013+32 = 2013+24+8 = 2015/8 where the Renminbi devaluation day, we have had a new cycle plus 20 months. New window on
2015/8+20 = 2015+28 = 2015+24+4 = 2017/4 where the Euro's gap and USDCNY has been topped for 4 months after the hike on Dec. 2016.
2, If we consider the USDCNY 40 months rising as a Renminbi measuring inflation and we use Dollar hike on Dec. 2015 as the Dollar devaluation inflation, then we should have a cycle on
2015/12+40 = 2015+52 = 2015+48+4 = 2018/4 where the Dollars inflation top. This means what guys, this is predicting where the hike ends in US dollar.
3, Now let's check on the 2004-2006 hiking cycle, a same cycle of 2 years duration. The Renminbi's hike was on 19th. Aug. 2006, the Dollar's hiking was ended on 29th. June 2006. "This's saying that if Renminbi hikes then Dollar hiking should've ended "before" Renminbi's hike."- Victor.Y.F. But how the hiking could end before something might happen?
The answer is simple, "wait and see..."
The Dollar had a 3 months pausing of each hiking, the Dollar hiked on June then paused and the Renminbi hiked on August, so on Sept. 2006 the Dollar hiking ended by in stead of the Renminbi's hiking before it.
4, Here comes the predictions:
If the hike on Dec. 2017 will be "the last" one in US Dollar, then we should see Renminbi's hiking in 2018 ( the Spring Festival is on 16th. Feb. 2018). Every 3 months we shall have the hiking window in Renminbi ( on Feb is a Festival , on April is the Dollar's inflation top has been calculated in section 2, on June is the China 10Y yield window) and after that the FRB should end the hiking "before" it.
It's more likely that the new FRB members may let the inflation run to the top in several months until an hiking from Renminbi then they should announce its ending officially by delaying 3 months.
2013/12+20 = 2013+32 = 2013+24+8 = 2015/8 where the Renminbi devaluation day, we have had a new cycle plus 20 months. New window on
2015/8+20 = 2015+28 = 2015+24+4 = 2017/4 where the Euro's gap and USDCNY has been topped for 4 months after the hike on Dec. 2016.
2, If we consider the USDCNY 40 months rising as a Renminbi measuring inflation and we use Dollar hike on Dec. 2015 as the Dollar devaluation inflation, then we should have a cycle on
2015/12+40 = 2015+52 = 2015+48+4 = 2018/4 where the Dollars inflation top. This means what guys, this is predicting where the hike ends in US dollar.
3, Now let's check on the 2004-2006 hiking cycle, a same cycle of 2 years duration. The Renminbi's hike was on 19th. Aug. 2006, the Dollar's hiking was ended on 29th. June 2006. "This's saying that if Renminbi hikes then Dollar hiking should've ended "before" Renminbi's hike."- Victor.Y.F. But how the hiking could end before something might happen?
The answer is simple, "wait and see..."
The Dollar had a 3 months pausing of each hiking, the Dollar hiked on June then paused and the Renminbi hiked on August, so on Sept. 2006 the Dollar hiking ended by in stead of the Renminbi's hiking before it.
4, Here comes the predictions:
If the hike on Dec. 2017 will be "the last" one in US Dollar, then we should see Renminbi's hiking in 2018 ( the Spring Festival is on 16th. Feb. 2018). Every 3 months we shall have the hiking window in Renminbi ( on Feb is a Festival , on April is the Dollar's inflation top has been calculated in section 2, on June is the China 10Y yield window) and after that the FRB should end the hiking "before" it.
It's more likely that the new FRB members may let the inflation run to the top in several months until an hiking from Renminbi then they should announce its ending officially by delaying 3 months.
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There's an error at section 2 on the last update... 2019/4 is the US inflation top, any way, the new members in FRB should let it exceed 2% target in several months. The Renminbi's hiking should save the Dollar hiking which has been a pain in the ass for a while, then the real inflation should happen in the USA. In fact, Renminbi should've hiked in 2015 from my point of view, but the PBOC was coward.
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Source: FXCM: " The British government encourages all members of parliament to support the date of March 29, 2019 as brexit."
Very interesting, check out the 2019/4 is the US inflation top... in fact, it's all about the inflations. From cycle perspective, on 2019/4 is the first target, then we should have the second target by using money policy as the higher top.
Very interesting, check out the 2019/4 is the US inflation top... in fact, it's all about the inflations. From cycle perspective, on 2019/4 is the first target, then we should have the second target by using money policy as the higher top.
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Western investors should avoiding trading China markets. Now the China 10Y bonds price is bearish unless the deposit interests hike, stocks bearish with Yen higher, Renminbi higher to be against commodities, only few sectors will rise but weaker than the USA. China investment condition is worse after party meeting.
"Winter is coming" - from TV series Game of the Throne. in China. western markets are all good, also in the EEM market, but not the China. It's a compensation.
"Winter is coming" - from TV series Game of the Throne. in China. western markets are all good, also in the EEM market, but not the China. It's a compensation.
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A Renminbi's deposit hike or second devaluation (6.8 pegging has been predicted before) or China inflation has been predicted today, looks like the news has been leak already. People are commencing on purchasing in the city, like Brexit.
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China Government 10Y Bonds yield looks like topping today from an area 4.04%. There’s an hidden purchasing looks like has begun, not for sure but the 5Y and 10Y market price is bottomed.
The bonds market, A shares, China inflation, USDCNY, CNYJPY, where’re affected by the influence of the purchasing they still need to be observed very carefully now.
The bonds market, A shares, China inflation, USDCNY, CNYJPY, where’re affected by the influence of the purchasing they still need to be observed very carefully now.
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Source: news in Chinese
finance.qq.com/a/20171130/023121.htm
"On November 30, the ministry of finance of the People's Republic of China issued 7 billion yuan of bonds in the Hong Kong special administrative region. Among them, the bidding for institutional investors was 6.5 billion yuan, including 2 years, 4 billion yuan, 5 years 2 billion yuan, 10 years and 500 million yuan, with the winning rate of 3.90 percent, 4.10 percent and 4.15 percent respectively. The issuance of 500 million yuan to the relevant foreign central Banks and regional monetary authorities, including the two-year period of 300 million yuan and the 5-year period of RMB 200 million, will be issued at the interest rate of the same maturity Treasury bonds."
We're looking at this chart as a 7 wave correction. If the purchasing has begun then it is changing everything in the forex market in a mid term perspective.
finance.qq.com/a/20171130/023121.htm
"On November 30, the ministry of finance of the People's Republic of China issued 7 billion yuan of bonds in the Hong Kong special administrative region. Among them, the bidding for institutional investors was 6.5 billion yuan, including 2 years, 4 billion yuan, 5 years 2 billion yuan, 10 years and 500 million yuan, with the winning rate of 3.90 percent, 4.10 percent and 4.15 percent respectively. The issuance of 500 million yuan to the relevant foreign central Banks and regional monetary authorities, including the two-year period of 300 million yuan and the 5-year period of RMB 200 million, will be issued at the interest rate of the same maturity Treasury bonds."
We're looking at this chart as a 7 wave correction. If the purchasing has begun then it is changing everything in the forex market in a mid term perspective.
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US 10Y bonds yield is still going down after some tests before the hike. If we have the hike soon, it's the longest cycle in history. US 10Y bonds price is up, it's a long way to go.
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Meet new supply in US 10Y bonds market: US treasury bonds auction sold 20 billion T-notes by yield 2.384% today.
The purchasing is just beginning. US bonds Yields may go higher with USDJPY but shall be topping after Renminbi’s hike, or saying with China’s helping the inflation, the US hike shall pause. Also need to be careful with the Yen. We may see the USDJPY higher and XAUUSD higher together but XAUUSD flat.
This maybe strange but very common in the cycle of 2006-2007.
The purchasing is just beginning. US bonds Yields may go higher with USDJPY but shall be topping after Renminbi’s hike, or saying with China’s helping the inflation, the US hike shall pause. Also need to be careful with the Yen. We may see the USDJPY higher and XAUUSD higher together but XAUUSD flat.
This maybe strange but very common in the cycle of 2006-2007.
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Meet fresh supply in US 30Y bonds market: US treasury bonds auction sold 12 billion 30 years T-notes by yield 2.808% today.
See? The purchasing is just beginning, as predicted before. The FRB is doing new QE without telling the market.
See? The purchasing is just beginning, as predicted before. The FRB is doing new QE without telling the market.
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A long march to recover 0% interests of German 2 years yield here. But be careful, this isn't saying EURUSD is a long in several months. ECB has changed correlation since July 2017. It's very disappointing that central banks are changing bonds market price and interest so easily. Central banks must be audited.
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It took 3 years for DE02Y dropping to -1.0% where were failed experimental financial tests had over there.By used EU zone people's future very quickly.. An typical manipulating failure.
You could find that the negative had begun in summer 2014 or April where was very earlier than you could image. It's a Renminbi's devaluation day before that, also beyond your imagination.
You could find that the negative had begun in summer 2014 or April where was very earlier than you could image. It's a Renminbi's devaluation day before that, also beyond your imagination.
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EU zone's future is done by using out the stocks future quickly in 3 years.
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Goldman Sachs has predicted US10Y yield 3.0% at the end of 2018. It's possible, but we should've paid more attentions to the risks in 2018. We could see some China stock markets rising with UJ before NK war begins. When that happens, the risk off will make UJ down and will make weighted Yen rising. Then the US10Y yield will follow it.
If China don't solve NK problems, the USA will solve it. Trump would do it very quickly with his personality. A best hedging manager we've ever seen, in the geopolitic strategy.
China is stupid, still making it worse......
If China don't solve NK problems, the USA will solve it. Trump would do it very quickly with his personality. A best hedging manager we've ever seen, in the geopolitic strategy.
China is stupid, still making it worse......
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US10Y yield 2.558% and rising with BOJ tightening, worse is that China cloud sell it too.
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A very good signal for China small caps and Chinese normal people, yes ECB is hurting normal Chinese people, they're working with China dictator to harm people. Now it's going to end......
Everything has its beginning has the end. from the Movie "Matrix" episode 3
Everything has its beginning has the end. from the Movie "Matrix" episode 3
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Looks like BOJ doesn't agree with US10Y yield higher, sneak attack?
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After this important channel has been broken, technically we're in a bear market of the bonds and bunds. The stock markets shall follow it soon.
We're changing our point of view where 0.4% target on US10Y.
We've predicted yield 4.75% target on US10Y in a long term perspective. Where China is selling US bonds in the bonds market and Japan hasn't sold them, yet.
We're changing our point of view where 0.4% target on US10Y.
We've predicted yield 4.75% target on US10Y in a long term perspective. Where China is selling US bonds in the bonds market and Japan hasn't sold them, yet.
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We've predicted China first hike window, on 18th. Feb. 2018, 5th. Mar. 2018, 21st. Mar. 2018. The stock markets are "pre-hike" correcting like 2015 after the first hike in USA.
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We've warned some TV top analysts and traders on 2nd. Feb. 2018......
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The 5 years German government bonds yield is a key for negative interests. It has crossed 0% just one week before the GER30 crashing. This is an visual evidence that the stock market selling has happened on 2nd. Feb. 2018, it's a positive condition.
In a positive condition, a sell is the real one. After this week end, central banks should have communicated during the holidays. There are 2 choices:
1; keep up 0% and buy with big capital.
2; submarine dive again and let it sell.
Which one is preferred? Let's see.
In a positive condition, a sell is the real one. After this week end, central banks should have communicated during the holidays. There are 2 choices:
1; keep up 0% and buy with big capital.
2; submarine dive again and let it sell.
Which one is preferred? Let's see.
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A ceiling in US10Y yield 3.05% may be working.
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Source: Federal Reserve (Fed) Vice Chairman Randal Quarles, the central bank’s supervision chief, is out on the wires now, via Reuters, making his scheduled speech titled "10 years after the Global Financial Crisis: How has the world economy changed and where will it go?" at the International Financial Symposium, in Tokyo.
www.fxstreet.com/new...opriate-201802220520
The question here is: "What can make USA hike pause?" Traders shouldn't take it for granted that USA hikes can last forever. Many factors can pause it, especially the stock market may be out of control.
The BOJ pretended "purchase again" could help it.
The China hike is still possible, yearly meeting on March 2018, is the key meeting for electing a new President. The PBOC Mr. Zhou will retire soon. We eye on some ambitious leaders who are better than him, or worse. Any way, China needs do something here ......
www.fxstreet.com/new...opriate-201802220520
The question here is: "What can make USA hike pause?" Traders shouldn't take it for granted that USA hikes can last forever. Many factors can pause it, especially the stock market may be out of control.
The BOJ pretended "purchase again" could help it.
The China hike is still possible, yearly meeting on March 2018, is the key meeting for electing a new President. The PBOC Mr. Zhou will retire soon. We eye on some ambitious leaders who are better than him, or worse. Any way, China needs do something here ......
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We're independent analysts, we don't work for PBOC and China banks, they're suck, right?
Traders now should look for US10Y yield slightly breaking to 3.05%, after that BOJ may recover positive correlation with USDJPY.
The 22nd. Feb. 2018 chart should work.
Traders now should look for US10Y yield slightly breaking to 3.05%, after that BOJ may recover positive correlation with USDJPY.
The 22nd. Feb. 2018 chart should work.
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We should've played God if we were gone to the uncharted territory.
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"We shouldn't have played God."
This chart is more clear in a condition we're back to sub zero.
This chart is more clear in a condition we're back to sub zero.
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This chart is showing in a condition we're floating above zero. This is very very important for the stock market success. We can NOT trust central banks to watch this for sure, they may NOT notice it at all and they could cause market crashing.
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Please pay attention here, DE05Y may go back to sub zero.
Each time we cross the mirror, the very high yield gap will cause this pair (DE05Y/US05Y) like a car "WINDSHIELD WIPER" to swing crazy. Have you ever seen the 2nd. Feb. 2018 swing?
We shouldn't have played God, into an uncharted territory, and now we should keep it above zero.
Each time we cross the mirror, the very high yield gap will cause this pair (DE05Y/US05Y) like a car "WINDSHIELD WIPER" to swing crazy. Have you ever seen the 2nd. Feb. 2018 swing?
We shouldn't have played God, into an uncharted territory, and now we should keep it above zero.
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We've touched the DE05Y zero mirror and looks like the markets are losing control now.
We've warned traders that central banks may NOT notice this uncharted territory. The market in forex and markets in stocks are all disordered now. Double squeezing shall cause US dollar rising and inflation crashing.
We've warned traders that central banks may NOT notice this uncharted territory. The market in forex and markets in stocks are all disordered now. Double squeezing shall cause US dollar rising and inflation crashing.
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Key fighting to the negative mirror. The German central bank says they're ready for positive, let's see if they keep promise or not...
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Traders! RISK OFF mode!
Please leave stock market or hedge your shares now!
Please look back 2015 crashing. DXY may go down to 86.50 then rises to receive capital squeezing!
1; VIX above 20 again.
2; EA crossed 1.5800 EU zone inflation may go to -2%.
3; Renminbi's devaluation like the Aug. 2015.
4; China incident on March.
Scalpers in forex market should hold short term. It's enough to avoid this kind of risk.
Please leave stock market or hedge your shares now!
Please look back 2015 crashing. DXY may go down to 86.50 then rises to receive capital squeezing!
1; VIX above 20 again.
2; EA crossed 1.5800 EU zone inflation may go to -2%.
3; Renminbi's devaluation like the Aug. 2015.
4; China incident on March.
Scalpers in forex market should hold short term. It's enough to avoid this kind of risk.
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Traders, we're back to the dark side, now "DAX drop is a buying, rise is a selling".
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The US10Y yield is showing us a new QE has begun from 14th. Feb. 2018. Yes, USA is purchasing again...
We suggests USA investors here: ( please leave EU zone stock markets, strong Euro dollar until ECB hike)
1; nail on the core inflation. ( along with 10 months SMA)
2; USA stocks need choose carefully in sectors. ( industrial, miners, resources, basic materials, inflation sensitive, avoid high tech and food and agriculture, they're growing too but less)
3; insurance company should focus on USA bonds market buying.
4; when everyone is expecting FRB cut, they're expanding, or saying the cut is done.
As independent analysts, we believe in chart but not what central banks fairy tales.
We don't work for PBOC and China banks they're sucks.
"Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan: the bonds market is at the beginning of a bubble."
March 1, 2018 23:20"
We suggests USA investors here: ( please leave EU zone stock markets, strong Euro dollar until ECB hike)
1; nail on the core inflation. ( along with 10 months SMA)
2; USA stocks need choose carefully in sectors. ( industrial, miners, resources, basic materials, inflation sensitive, avoid high tech and food and agriculture, they're growing too but less)
3; insurance company should focus on USA bonds market buying.
4; when everyone is expecting FRB cut, they're expanding, or saying the cut is done.
As independent analysts, we believe in chart but not what central banks fairy tales.
We don't work for PBOC and China banks they're sucks.
"Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan: the bonds market is at the beginning of a bubble."
March 1, 2018 23:20"
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We could fill the gap between 2.88%- 2.89% in US10Y yield and should go down again with purchasing. Everything is okay in the future.
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The gap has been filled and the fall should come soon, in US10Y bonds yield.
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previously ...
now...
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We're now at 0.846% yield, almost the same level of the GB02Y yield high on 22nd. June 2016, where has happened Brexit "incident".
Please be careful here, traders... we're on March, the political influences will be huge to the market in 2018.
Please be careful here, traders... we're on March, the political influences will be huge to the market in 2018.
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My mistake: correction is here
"We're now at 0.846% yield, almost the same level of the GB02Y yield high on 22nd. June 2015, where has happened China stock market crashing before."
"We're now at 0.846% yield, almost the same level of the GB02Y yield high on 22nd. June 2015, where has happened China stock market crashing before."
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Multiple harmonic patterns are building in US10Y yield, till the 22nd. March 2018. After this harmonic top is completed, we shall have the core inflation break out like predicted before.
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A real foul player...
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Again, central banks don't understand the negative interests consequnces and they've pretended to be God ( Or some of them know it and it's worse). This has caused an USA culture revolution movement in 10 years . This has made our human being civilization to fade slowly. This is unhealthy.
We don't have to start a soft war or hard war to get an inflation trend but need to cancel all negative money policies around the world.
We don't have to start a soft war or hard war to get an inflation trend but need to cancel all negative money policies around the world.
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The harmonic patterns should work better after the completion. There's no guarantee that the pattern in US10Y yield will go to 2.957 once again.
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The currently market condition looks like the same one as Chinese Renminbi deposit interests hike 11 years ago. Be careful here, traders, if China hikes then the FRB shall pause after the March hike to watch the inflation trending or not.
Our prediction is 2-3 deposit interests hikes each one is 0.25% in Renminbi, after that China stocks may crashing, it depends on the speed of the hikes. If the hikes go very slowly, the China stock market may rise with core inflation in China, but still need to watch the interests very carefully.
Our prediction is 2-3 deposit interests hikes each one is 0.25% in Renminbi, after that China stocks may crashing, it depends on the speed of the hikes. If the hikes go very slowly, the China stock market may rise with core inflation in China, but still need to watch the interests very carefully.
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The US10Y yield is climbing higher before the hike.
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Looks like the US10Y yield is topping...
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Previously...
now a pattern Gartley has been completed...
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From here US10Y bonds yield may go higher with the DXY. US dollar should rise with Euro inflation in 2018. Believe it or not, Euro can push US inflation higher too.
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Remember the 2nd. Feb. cross? It's happening again...
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The US10Y bonds yield should reach 4.06% target before Nov. 2018 from this trend line angle. This's saying that the stock market should crash, because the safe assets interests are higher than risk assets and the money policy is unfriendly to the equities.
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Is this a data wrong, or the ECB know that we're watching this boy? Hope it's a data problem.
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This's a very long term perspective, ok? Not for trade.
After China stock market collapse, the crash should affect global market sooner or later. Hopefully we've looked back TNX for long term log scale, and found something very interesting here. We should have the US10Y yield topped in 2018... this's saying the hike will be paused in months.
The log scale trend line has never been broken since 1980S
The lower channel edge is showing us new lows in TNX.
After China stock market collapse, the crash should affect global market sooner or later. Hopefully we've looked back TNX for long term log scale, and found something very interesting here. We should have the US10Y yield topped in 2018... this's saying the hike will be paused in months.
The log scale trend line has never been broken since 1980S
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We should have a zero in US 10Y bonds yield in the future . The new chart is protected here but you guys can do it by count from 1-5 to draw the wave lower. The USA government financial condition can't afford the hike any more soon, if there's no trade balance for good. Please remember that the purchase is a better way.
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The 2.0% yield is the key horizon, if we drop quickly below it, then we may go to negative area.
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On chart, the core inflation will be released.
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The US10Y bonds yield can hold at 3% to form a harmonic top in 12 moths for waiting to China stock market fireworks topping cycle.
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See? told ya!
"22 hours ago Comment: This's a very long term perspective, ok? Not for trade."
now......
"22 hours ago Comment: This's a very long term perspective, ok? Not for trade."
now......
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The TNX data of CBOE US 10Y yield is wrong now. But we've kept a chart since the May. This hidden chart shows that a surprising from the FRB, the US hike may pause under the trade war spreading condition. (from July or Sept. to Dec. 2018 then hike again)
We may see some uprising in the China stock market but not sure...
We may see some uprising in the China stock market but not sure...
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The TNX data is still wrong but we’ve got something new for traders.
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We’ve seen an US 10Y yields lagging with the DE 10Y yields. After we circle the same level around 3.0-3.3. This is fitting for the zero dollar interests in 10Y government markets where chairman Powell mentioned before.
We have a chart with the good view of 3% but this’s 30%.
Don’t sell your US 10Y bonds, it’ll rise again, yields down to zero and maybe lower level of a negative, in the future.
We have a chart with the good view of 3% but this’s 30%.
Don’t sell your US 10Y bonds, it’ll rise again, yields down to zero and maybe lower level of a negative, in the future.
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This’s what we’re looking at, believe it or not, in a case of China raise basic deposit interests in 2006 where the FRB should pause “before” it...
The purchase may have begun already...
The purchase may have begun already...
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There will be some huge volatiles in the market soon... take care of your stocks or just quit all positions before the buying again.
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We reclaim the US10Y bonds price (yields lower from 3.0% to 0% or sub 0% in the future) is a buying lower now, the US treasury should purchase again.
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The US10Y bonds yield should be limited by 3.11% - 3.31% and they should purchase again.
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Harmonic pattern Gartley PRZ is around 3.372, a little higher but still good, be patient...
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T-note is showing a Batman pattern here, we're still confident about this chart because the core inflation is still holding.
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This's saying that for some reasons (we don't know yet ) the hike will be paused and purchase should begin slowly.
1; Brexit no deal quit
2; China personal interests hike in Renminbi
3; stock market crashing
There're some reasons are lying there.
1; Brexit no deal quit
2; China personal interests hike in Renminbi
3; stock market crashing
There're some reasons are lying there.
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Pros should understand that the QE 2008 is a 10 years bonds purchase, 2 months later the huge capital flow where is sitting on QE will be matured...
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China Bonds market now is opening for foreign investment, we’ll see if this’ll work or not. For our point of view, because the China Renminbi (Chinese Yuan) has not joined the forex market, the problems will be huge in the future. The China government Bonds may be resulted in a default many years later.
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10 years
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Previously
Now...
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To be clear, the US dollar real hike has been paused 13 moths, that’s why in market collapse to here. Now FRB is gonna announce it to let go or hike huge to open the second cycle.
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Now......
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A word to some of those Chinese "pros":
if you can't identify which one is bonds price and which one is yield, or you can't tell what is the mathematical correlation between them, or you have no enough of education then you shouldn't have been a pro.
Simply speaking you're not qualified in this market, your education is wrong for many years already, by feeding ducks style education.
if you can't identify which one is bonds price and which one is yield, or you can't tell what is the mathematical correlation between them, or you have no enough of education then you shouldn't have been a pro.
Simply speaking you're not qualified in this market, your education is wrong for many years already, by feeding ducks style education.
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Now be careful bonds traders, the US10Y market price may have started to correct the rising before. The 10Y bonds yield may rise again by 2% soon.
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This US10Y bonds price can still go higher in several months but a correction is for sure, before continuing the lower leg in the yields chart.
Pros should've realized what we're talking about.
Pros should've realized what we're talking about.
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2020/03/04 Beijing time 17:30
FRB (Fed) cut 0.5% for saving the SPX500, this is too late, if they cut earlier and cut slowly the market should be better. Below chart will show you guys the mistakes 2008 and now they're making it again. ( They're panic, which is emotionally wrong)
Please look at below chart ,it was published on May/29/2018, two years ago.
Please look at below chart, after a retesting 2.04% from 1.0 here, the -0.7% is a reasonable target.
It's gonna go negative.
FRB (Fed) cut 0.5% for saving the SPX500, this is too late, if they cut earlier and cut slowly the market should be better. Below chart will show you guys the mistakes 2008 and now they're making it again. ( They're panic, which is emotionally wrong)
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2021/2/17 Beijing time 03:47
The 0.4% has been reached and has bounced off.
The 0.4% has been reached and has bounced off.
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2021/2/20 Beijing time 02:01
The yields of bonds market are all arising, including 2Y, 5Y, 10Y yields among all currencies. It's a good place to correct, after this quick tightening, more QE should give stock market a longer life. Although it must have an impact to the market, just when and where, and how long it would last. The VIX looks good now, be careful traders, fasten your seat-belts.
The yields of bonds market are all arising, including 2Y, 5Y, 10Y yields among all currencies. It's a good place to correct, after this quick tightening, more QE should give stock market a longer life. Although it must have an impact to the market, just when and where, and how long it would last. The VIX looks good now, be careful traders, fasten your seat-belts.
I also here urge the FRB and the USA authorities calling the China government to look at this market very carefully. Because it'll make your inflation fails too.