How where are you looking to close long or short now...how is it looking to you?
Bryan_Ali
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@tbuckle, So I was short from last night until I posted this trade idea as a reversal.. The upside target for me is ~$53.40 where the selloff at 9am occurred today. Price is outside of the blue pitchfork right now which I think is bullish for the Asian session. From a longer-term perspective I am not so sure where the direction is headed. The charts had looked solid for a while but price has not been able to break through $55 which is concerning. Not to mention that a lot of the supposed reason for prices going up, OPEC and nonOPEC production cuts, may not do much to actually lessen the supply glut that currently exists. That is if all of the participants even comply with the proposed cuts. Additionally, there has been a rebound in the dollar which will act as a headwind to crude prices if a breakout occurs (check out the DXY weekly chart). Another headwind is US & Canadian shale production which has been coming online at a relatively high rate lately. But, there is still a lot of uncertainty with Trump in office- that is what has a chance to make prices shoot up for US crude oil, in my opinion, more so than the prospects of increased global growth or anything like that. If he imposes any border taxes that affect imports or if he causes international sanctions to be reimposed on Iran then you'd better hope you are not short. If anything, Yellen is speaking tomorrow so there should be a lot of volatility around then. P.S. I am a college student with little cash and a lot of debt- I don't have a position right now because I wanted to go on Spring Break, instead :P
tbuckle
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@Bryan_Ali, Thanks for the response and taking the time to do so. I generally agree.
tbuckle
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What price are you looking at for the bounce? 53.3 ish?
Bryan_Ali
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@tbuckle, ya around there, top of the pitchfork channel- $53.50, at most.