Intro: First, the path that I have drawn in green (like a head and sholders pattern) isn't meant to represent exactly the path, it's meant to show which levels we meet before we get a leg up higher. The main reason that I am bullish personally is because I look at long-term trend systems which in my case are long!
Analysis: In my other idea (linked below) I predicted the correction and the level at which BTC would bounce off of. Here I'll try to do something different. I'll try to use fib levels to estimate which levels we're likely to visit before we break above the recent ATH that has been set.
The first thing I notice, is that most of the positive price action has come in the Tokyo session, indicating that the Asian markets are bullish on crypto. This doesn't tell us much, but it indicates a positive inflow into BTC from other places than the ETF's. Some negative price action has occured within the Tokyo session, but there has been more positive.
Another thing that I notice is that price is rejecting on lower and lower prices over time: This could indicate that the market is going downwards to fill Fair value gaps, without letting people build leveraged short positions.
These fair value gaps are especially interesting to observe, as I think these will be filled.
The total marketcap of crypto (excluding BTC) also seems to be ready to test crucial levels before going higher:
Chart: The chart for this post explains itself. I believe we get to the 0.236-0.382 fib levels before we go a leg higher, who knows? Maybe we could hit 93K this cycle?
Some of my indicators have been linked to this idea, they are free for ALL users on TradingView, enjoy! They should make it easier to do mean-reverting trades, and detect trends
p.s. The US has approved trillions in spending, the EU, US and multiple Asian countries are PRINTING money, I really do believe that price for assets like BTC will go up in the long term for this economic cycle. Of course, don't just take my word for it, go research yourself!
seems like BTC is currently bound in a downward channel. until it exits we're in for lower lows. think 56 k might be a realistic lower bound
IkkeOmar
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@gbonamy that sounds very reasonable, we could maybe even go Lower if a lot of people open leveraged LONGS at the bottom of the range that you are describing. You seem very experienced in the fundamental price action, how many cycles have you been through?