jorge964
Long

BTC at least to 4435. My open trade (BTCUSDT - BITTREX)

POLONIEX:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / Tether USD
Although I initially thought that the breakout on the 25th was going to be a false breakout and sold my position @4229 (bought @2200) I saw with a bit of despair how it was forming a new uptrend after the breakout that seems to be a good one.

In any case, looking at the moving averages, MACD and RSI I thought that on the 28th it should have a small correction. On the 4h chart, the 10EMA was crossing from below the 30EMA implying that a correction could arrive. Also the RSI was very overbought and on the MACD the signal line was getting ready to cut from below. Also there was no divergence on the MAs, RSI nor MACD so there was no indication of a possible change to downtrend, the general up trend should continue after the small correction.

Having those signals I waited for it to happen and it did. I manged to buy back almost at the bottom @3956 setting (slightly below my previous buy) with a stop loss at 3857 (a previous resistance level ) and a level slightly below of 1M$ in buy orders on the ledger.

Now the price is above 4100 hopefully continuing the up trend. On the 4h chart the RSI is not overbought. On the MACD the signal is about to cut from above so the price could go up, but they are very close so the movement probably is not going to be too big for now.

On the 1D chart the RSI is increasing to about 60, there is no divergence. For the MACD the signal is below and increasing, so in a few days we could see a probably small correction but continuing the up trend, there is no divergence for now also.

The 30EMA seems to be working as support so I'll keep moving the stop loss just some points below it or a difference of 99US what ever is bigger. If it breaks below it then I'll wait until it gets to the 120MA to see if it works as support and bounces back.

Looking at the ledger right now the biggest ASKs are at about 4435 with 3.55M$ so for now that would be my target. As it gets close to that value I'll continue looking at the ledger to see how the pending asks are set. There are also resistances of about 1M$ on the ledger at 4330, 4340 and 4400 that I'll monitor.

Sorry if I write too much detail but this information is for me so I know what I'm doing ;)

Disclaimer: this is not trading advice, just my own ideas.
Kommentar: We went above 4300! but around 4295 now. I think the uptrend is losing a bit of steam now and it will have a small correction in the next hours, but not enough to scalp it. After that it will continue rising.

To find a new stop loss level I made Fibo trend based retracement on the 4h chart from the latest bottom at the trend line to the current top, 0.5 and 0.382 seen like good support levels but they are already too close to the trend support line so I better move the stop loss to just below 0.236 fibo (4040) which is also just below the trend line support. The idea is that if it breaks the trend support line plus the 0.236 fibo it will most probably continue going down so better to sell at a slight profit.

In any case I don't think it will break the trend support line and that it will continue going up. In the 4 hour chart the RSI doesn't show divergence and is not too overbought (around 60), MACD and signal lines are very close and signal will cross from below soon so we should expect a small correction within the next 4 hours but nothing to worry about.

On the 1D chart the RSI and MACD look like continuing the uptrend for some more days.

In the 3D chart the MACD signal is getting close to cut from above so we should expect a continuation of the uptrend in the next weeks.

Current pending ASKs orders in the ledger that could work as supports:
4400 with 1.13M$
4500 with 1.63M$
4700 with 1.96M$
Interesting that there is no strong resistance at 4600 so may be heading to 4700. If that level is broken then we have
4788 with 1M$
4900 with 1.72
7600 with 1.05

So people is not expecting to arrive to 4800 but is not very strong with only 1M$, 4900 is relatively strong but if broken we have people already waiting for the 7600!

Here is the updated chart
Kommentar: Still moving within the uptrend channel.

I believe that we will hit the resistance of the channel in about 8-10h and at a level of 4500. From there we probably see a correction to the support of the channel maybe to about 4300 to resume again the uptrend up to probably 4600 (1.64M$ pending asks on the ledger) or even 4700 (1.5M$).

The RSI seems to support the idea, although it is quite high I think it still has some room to increase until price reaches the resistance. MACD also seems to support the idea as it has till some room until it cuts from below after we reach the resistance.

When we reach 4500 I'll update my stop loss to 4100 (which right now has 1.77M$ of pending BIDS on the ledger)

I'm going to leave the trade run above the initial target because with the data I believe we could get to 4500 (resistance from 17/08) or even 4700 (resistance from 07/09). I'll keep the stop loss just below the support channel (at the wigs). I risk losing part of my gains but I don't want to miss a possible run to ATH or higher (there are 1.3M$ of pending asks at 8800). Remember, let the gains run and cut the losses quickly (but without taking you out too early with just the "noise") ;)

Kommentar: I move my stop loss to 4100 just in between the channel support line (at the wigs) and the 40EMA. There are 1.61M$ in pending BIDs on the ledger that confirms also this support level.

The price didn't rise to the resistance of the channel but moved sideways consolidating. It is getting close to the support of the channel (at closes) where it could resume the price increase.

As for resistances in the ledger there are 1.96M$ @ 4410, 1.28 @ 4450 and 1.6 @ 4500 (also resistance in the chart) so unless many buyers appear it seems difficult that it will break the 4500 level this time, 4500 could work as a good resistance bouncing to test the support again before going to the 4500.

Alternatively it could break the support channel (although I don't see signals for it right now) and correct in which case the stop loss will trigger and I will wait until the correction finishes to go long again.
Kommentar: Sorry that I posted it twice, I didn't realize I was making a reply below and not an update ;)

Kommentar: Hiting the first line of support in the channel (closures). In the 1h chart the RSI has decreased significantly and the MACD signal is above and very close, also nearing 0, so we could see soon the signal cutting from above and resume the uptrend.

If the recovery doesn't happen then I'll be put out of the market at the stop loss of 4100, let's see what happens, still 210$ away... so I should keep calm (that is to remind my self ;) )
Kommentar:
Kommentar: Bouncing back at the support of the channel as predicted! Let's go for the 4400 and 4500 now!

Kommentar: Increasing my stop loss to 4150
Kommentar: Just above 4400, around 2.2M in the ledger at about 4500 so there seems to be a significant resistance in there. The MACD signal is going to cut from above and the RSI not too high. This might mean that there is enough strengh to arrive to 4450 but not too sure about going about it this time, may be it needs to consolidate a bit before going for the 4500.
Kommentar: We just went above the 4450 resistance level, remembar that we had 2.2M$ in pending sell orders at that level. next target 4500 with 1.77M$ and the 4567 with 1.2M$

Moved my stop loss to 4200

Let's see if we manage to reach the 4500, 4600 and 4700 between today and tomorow, then probably a small correction within the channel and staying above the 4500.
Kommentar: Signigicant correction, the support trend line broken, getting very close to getting stopped out on a profit, I'll stick to my plan. I hope that if I get stopped out it ill continue falling so I can buy cheaper later and doesn't just bounce back at my stop! Looking closely now
Kommentar: We riched a low of 2227 so just 27 units away from my stop!

Apparently it is recovering now, on the 30 mins chart MACD signal crossed from above and starting uptrend from below 20. RSI went oversold and starting up trend also. On the 1h chart MACD hasn't crossed yet, hope it does in 2-3 hours, RSI started uptrend and is below 40. The 4 hours chart is the ones that makes me a bit more nervous, RSI is about 50, that's fine, but MACD don't show any intention of the signal to cross from above and both lines are still very high and side-ways or slightly down trend. It doesn't feel like much strenght in the medium term. In the ledger pending orders I see first support on 4100 and resistance in 4500, so not supporting much strenght either I think.
Trade geschlossen: Stop wurde erreicht: Stopped out in profit at 4190 (at the end I was tempted and decreased by 10USDT just to allow a lit bit more of margin)

Now we will have to wait for a good buying signal.
I move my stop loss to 4100 just in between the channel support line (at the wigs) and the 40EMA. There are 1.61M$ in pending BIDs on the ledger that confirms also this support level.

The price didn't rise to the resistance of the channel but moved sideways consolidating. It is getting close to the support of the channel (at closes) where it could resume the price increase.

As for resistances in the ledger there are 1.96M$ @ 4410, 1.28 @ 4450 and 1.6 @ 4500 (also resistance in the chart) so unless many buyers appear it seems difficult that it will break the 4500 level this time, 4500 could work as a good resistance bouncing to test the support again before going to the 4500.

Alternatively it could break the support channel (although I don't see signals for it right now) and correct in which case the stop loss will trigger and I will wait until the correction finishes to go long again.

Antworten
it is high enough already. If you go short always worth a thought to either miss the big short or wait for a few more $.
but it may be irresponsible top push a bull trap by a single more USD. Shortsqueezes are evil.
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jorge964 fineregex
@fineregex, I don't understand, the chart is for 2014... what are you trying to say?
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fineregex jorge964
@jorge964, chart to show that 0.786 retrace will not happen in such a downtrend.
same this time
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fineregex fineregex
@fineregex, note we are only at the second dump and retrace. There may be 3 too this time
+1 Antworten
jorge964 fineregex
@fineregex, I understand you now. So 0.786 retracement from ATH to me works out at almost exactly 4500. Also 1.64M$ in pending sell orders at 4500. My original target was 4435 so well within ;)

I agree that it is a possibility that it could bounce back before 0.786 but we probably need more signals to confirm it, for now I don't see them. We'll see as it gets closer.

On the other hand, if my previous Elliot Wave analysis is correct, we are just starting Wave 5 so we could see new ATH before starting a completely new long term bear market. We'll see ;)

Thank you for your ideas!!!
+1 Antworten
Thank you! By sharing you make this a win win situation for everyone!
+1 Antworten
jorge964 SpandyAndy
@SpandyAndy, you are welcome! I guess that if I "give" the karma will give me back ;) Also it helps me sorting out my ideas :D
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