Change in BTC Buyer Composition: 15-20k Imminent?
Full Disclaimer: Below is my working theory, not to be taken as financial advice. If this theory is incorrect, we could be headed for a 30-40% correction. Volume is relatively thin, big moves in any directions are possible.
I believe most traders are not taking into account the marco picture. They'eve learned from their mistakes in the 2017 bull run and believe this run will be an analog to 2017 but just magnitudes more profitable. However, the crypto landscape has changed a lot during the bear market. A few changes include;
1) More regulations, ico mania tamed
2) Increased number of fiat to crypto pairs (don't need to buy or sell into btc)
3) Fiat to crypto on ramps easily accessible and more abundant
4) Corporations/influential persons involvement has brought more legitimacy
5) Overall composition of the market participants has changed
In part, the last bull run was hyper volatile and erratic due to retail participation (approx 97-98%). The current run up seems to be more organized and less impulse driven. Every breakout is preceded by consolidation via a bullish pennant. Big players don't care about 1k moves up/down because they tend to have a long term investment horizon. This makes them less likely to buy into break outs (unlike retail). I think we retail investors maybe swimming with whales now and in my view this is just the beginning. I don't think they intended on entering this early. Geopolitical instability, tariffs, China's banking crisis, and the dovish fed are causing big players to reallocate their portfolios. I firmly believe big players have begun to hedge with BTC and more will do so once the fed cuts rates. This also explains why gold just had a major break out. Personally, I've layered in some long term buys into btc around 7-9k region and also bought a few alts. Additionally, I increased my passive buying (dollar cost averaging) on coinbase and circle pay when btc was hovering around 7k. I also have some cash on the sideline in case we end up getting a large retracement. In other words, I've prepared myself for any scenario. There's a possibility we may never see btc sub 10k again, and people should prepare accordingly. The current run up is just a tease, the real action will place in 2020. It's gonna hurt to buy btc/alts now because you didn't buy them when they were cheaper. However, it'll gonna hurt even more if you wait for a correction that never comes. Good luck everyone.
I believe most traders are not taking into account the marco picture. They'eve learned from their mistakes in the 2017 bull run and believe this run will be an analog to 2017 but just magnitudes more profitable. However, the crypto landscape has changed a lot during the bear market. A few changes include;
1) More regulations, ico mania tamed
2) Increased number of fiat to crypto pairs (don't need to buy or sell into btc)
3) Fiat to crypto on ramps easily accessible and more abundant
4) Corporations/influential persons involvement has brought more legitimacy
5) Overall composition of the market participants has changed
In part, the last bull run was hyper volatile and erratic due to retail participation (approx 97-98%). The current run up seems to be more organized and less impulse driven. Every breakout is preceded by consolidation via a bullish pennant. Big players don't care about 1k moves up/down because they tend to have a long term investment horizon. This makes them less likely to buy into break outs (unlike retail). I think we retail investors maybe swimming with whales now and in my view this is just the beginning. I don't think they intended on entering this early. Geopolitical instability, tariffs, China's banking crisis, and the dovish fed are causing big players to reallocate their portfolios. I firmly believe big players have begun to hedge with BTC and more will do so once the fed cuts rates. This also explains why gold just had a major break out. Personally, I've layered in some long term buys into btc around 7-9k region and also bought a few alts. Additionally, I increased my passive buying (dollar cost averaging) on coinbase and circle pay when btc was hovering around 7k. I also have some cash on the sideline in case we end up getting a large retracement. In other words, I've prepared myself for any scenario. There's a possibility we may never see btc sub 10k again, and people should prepare accordingly. The current run up is just a tease, the real action will place in 2020. It's gonna hurt to buy btc/alts now because you didn't buy them when they were cheaper. However, it'll gonna hurt even more if you wait for a correction that never comes. Good luck everyone.
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