Hi traders, I hope you're all having a good weekend.
Here we have BTC/USD on the 8H chart.
BTC/USD appears to be in an up move. Price recently broke down and hit the lowest low on 2nd February, and price hit 8012 at this point. Since hitting this low, price has had some upside since.
Price is picking up momentum to the upside. Price had an initial low at 8012, and is since recovering. Price is trading under a side-wards resistance line which at current levels is at 10760. Once the side-wards resistance line is broken, I am expecting some nice upside potential.
I am expecting Bitcoin to continue with the current upside momentum, and I am expecting a move to at least 10760. It will move further if the side-wards resistance line is broken and is tested as a support.
This trade could play out in 2 ways, I have outlined these below:
-Price continues it's strong momentum to the upside, and hits the upside target at 10760 in one strong swing move. Bare in mind if this does happen it is extremely likely that price will once again be going back into higher levels, and would show a significant change of investors sentiment in Cryptocurrency as a whole, and prices returning to their higher levels would be extremely likely. -Price retests the horizontal support zone at around 10760 before a retest to the side-wards support zone at around 9200 before the up move begins, where we will hit the upside target of 13100.
Bare in mind, the first scenario above is preferred to the second. A straight breakout of the side-wards resistance and a retest as a new support would show a huge change of ideology in the market, and the markets could legitimately see some stellar upside.
If price retests the lower support, it will still bounce and go to the upside, but it is less likely. The first scenario above is the ideal one for Bitcoin's best outcome.
I will updating this analysis if it receives more than 40 likes.
Kommentar
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This is more than just a sell off. This is a slaying of Bitcoin altogether.
Bitcoin even extended itself and broke down much further than I expected.
It's not even almost broke a major side-wards support which is the last useful support before it could drop to 4k.
I recommend stepping back for the time being, this will be a difficult ride for all that are stuck in it.
@TomProTrader I think that there is not so much room left downwards for the bears. Logic tells that for all those who want to take big profit from this market in $$$ to let it grow (at least to allow for building of a reasonable large bull trap (aka 8-10k)...
What we see is the same emotion we saw shortly before the ATH, just the opposite its all driven by fear and greed and the only ones who gain are those who anticipated the risks before and layed out a plan. I will stick to my plan, maybe even buy a little more than original planed... but yea.
I think selling right now will be as risky as buying at the top.
TomProTrader
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@Jbos865, Selling now would be the craziest move of all time.
Just wait for a bit a bit later.
Jbos865
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@TomProTrader, yes. thats what I say... but I have people around that actually consider this as a "exit". While they bought at 18k..
I wont sell, as said I consider to by more in case we reach low high 4k's. For me these weeks are kind of crypto super sale weeks. (but tbh I was also kind of surprised of how low we went, didn't really expect to see such numbers ever again)
@TomProTrader, "This trade could play out in 2 ways, I have outlined these below:
-Price continues it's strong momentum to the upside, and hits the upside target at 10760 in one strong swing move. Bare in mind if this does happen it is extremely likely that price will once again be going back into higher levels, and would show a significant change of investors sentiment in Cryptocurrency as a whole, and prices returning to their higher levels would be extremely likely.
-Price retests the horizontal support zone at around 10760 before a retest to the side-wards support zone at around 9200 before the up move begins, where we will hit the upside target of 13100. "
It's like you forgot what you wrote.
TomProTrader
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@josephtse, Oh, maybe you failed to realize that if the above didn't happen then I would be wrong. Perhaps you want me to factor in all 42773736 possibilities of movement in each idea with minimum detail?
In real trading we need to define a zone for our plan to work, not just show all willy nilly.
So I'll do it Joseph's way,
- Could hit 0
- Could hit 700
- Could also hit 700 and bounce.
See the flaw in your logic?
I'm assuming you likely do but will no way admit it now you're this deep into it.
What we see is the same emotion we saw shortly before the ATH, just the opposite its all driven by fear and greed and the only ones who gain are those who anticipated the risks before and layed out a plan. I will stick to my plan, maybe even buy a little more than original planed... but yea.
I think selling right now will be as risky as buying at the top.