twismo

BTC-USD - Are we at the bottom?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
The question on everyone lips. Let's take a look at the charts.

1D Chart
Starting with the 1D to get the broad picture. Remember as well that signals on the higher charts are more reliable.
Key levels of Support/Resistance are:
11470 - Has acted as strong support and resistance on the 1HR chart between 21st Jan and 29th Jan when it finally gave way to the downside. Will now act as resistance on the way back up.
10700 - Was the bottom of the wick that ended the fall on the 22nd December. Has provided support multiple times with no daily closing below it until we dropped on the 30th January. Will also now act as resistance.
Upper Box - Indicates area of support which we are now testing. This was a bullish accumulation zone back in 28/29th November on the daily. It has been drawn wider to account for the accumulation candles on the 4HR chart at this time as below:

9232 - Was the bottom of the wick from the 17th Jan (and lowest recent low). This will act as resistance and is within the box discussed above.
Lower Box - If we drop through the upper box and the 9232 level then the price could drop to this lower region which aligns with the last significant level of accumulation (16th-24th December). There was very little volume previously between the upper and lower boxes so it may fall through as quickly as it went up.

RSI has been below 50 for a while reflecting the continued bearish sentiment. It is currently tracking down and is at 35. Will it drop further? August 2016 was the last time that the RSI fell below 30 (classic oversold zone) (Note: same date was also the last death cross on the 8HR - see below). The recovery back in May 2017 happened when RSI was at 35 which is the current level. More recent recoveries happened on the 30 (July & Sept 2017). In Nov 2017 is happened at 42 when the market sentiment was extraordinarily bullish dismiss this as an anomaly. Given that we witnessed a death cross on the 8HR recently we could potentially drop below the 30 - I would not be surprised based on this indicator.

Oscillators
200 EMA - We are currently only 7% above this key average. If we move below it then I would consider that we are officially in a bear market. We have not dropped below this since Nov 15!!

8HR Chart
The last time we had a death cross on the 8HR was way back in August 2016 (see below). At the time the cross coincided with the bottom of that drop. The bottom turned into the left side of a W pattern and the market recovered. The 50 EMA recovered to be above the 200 only 26 days later and it has been above it ever since....until now.


Fundamentals
There is ALLOT of FUD spreading going on currently with daily stories being released from South Korea, China, India, Tether. Most of these stories being published in mainstream news are out of date and seem to be being released at times that coincide with BTC             price down trends. It is not a stretch to think that this is market manipulation and that institutional investors are trying to shake out weak hands.

SUMMARY
We are at key junction             for $BTC. We need to see how price holds up in the upper box region and how it responds to returning to the 200 EMA . The RSI and historical volume plus all of the FUD and negativity indicate we could drop further into the lower box region - 8500 or below.

"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity"
This is not investment advice.

If you found this helpful or disagree with any of it please comment below. Also please follow me if you want to see future analysis on Crypto pairs.
Kommentar: Gulp!!!

Trade ist aktiv: I picked up some $BTC at around 8300 level. I just couldn't resist at the price although I know it can drop further! Indeed it did drop to 8000 but found allot of buy orders at this level. Huge green candle on the 8HR chart. This was followed by some selling. Overall it is still down currently on the day.

On the 1D chart (below) we are currently dancing on the important 200 EMA line. Remember that we have not had price cross below this for years. Until a daily closes below this to my mind we are not in a bear market. This appears to be acting as a support and could put the breaks on the drop. Let's hope so...

Thoughts below please!!

Kommentar: Just posting a clearer image of the price on 200 EMA.
Trade ist aktiv: I have set buys at the 7500 level. This was a strong area of accumulation and resistance previously so will hopefully act as much needed support.
Kommentar: I have been away in Cuba for 3 weeks without internet access...a blessing and a curse!! Good to see that after falling down to the 6000 levels that my buys at 7500 and 8000 are now positive. Lets take a look at the updated charts.

8HR:
- Price on the last full candle respected the key 10700 level which also now coincides with the 200 EMA - making this an even stronger support.
- Price is making high lows and lower highs. 200 EMA and 50 EMA are merging. Both these indicate consolidation.
- Will be looking for the price to keep moving up the green trend line.


1D:
- RSI did move into oversold and completed the downtrend in purple as expected. This coincided with price dipping below the 200 EMA. Each time it has done these previously it then is followed by a huge uptick
- Price has respected the 200 EMA since its recovery


Summary:
- BTC could have broken its bottom. MM or negative sentiment could cause it to fail again but I cannot see it going significantly below the 10000 level based on the current TA.
- If you are looking to open longs I would advise doing this once the price has shown it can stay above the 200 EMA on the 8HR
Kommentar: After a steady climb for 7 days BTC is correcting now for the 2nd day in a row. Is there reason for concern? Let's take a look at TA:
- Volume slightly declining
- High failed to breach the 11917 R level for the 2nd time and was slightly lower than the high on 20th feb
- Price is testing 1) 2 valid trend lines (4HR) 2) the 50 EMA on the 1D and 3) the strong 10700 S level
- RSI showing increase in momentum but might break the uptrend. Needs to stay above 50 to remain bullish.

2 Scenarios
1) Falls below 10700. If it does then we look to see how it responds to the lower S levels. The 9232 level is strong as is also the 0.236 fib level from the 2018 H/L. If we see a swing low in the green box this will be an excellent buy opportunity.
2) Bulls take control again, further validating the up-trend lines. Look for how price behaves with identified R levels, particularly for a daily close above the 11920 level.



(p.s. I am just settling on colours for my drawing/TA so they have changed. Key is:
Black horizontal - Support/Resistance on 1D (dotted black is on LTF usual 4HR)
Red Box - S Zone based on prior S
Green Box - R zone based on prior R
Green diagonal - Trend on 1D (dotted is on LTF)
Kommentar: Slight update to:
- add a S/R level at 11250 (also the key 0.382 fib). This was a R level on two occasions (10 feb, 20 mar).
- the red downtrend line from the high showing we have breached this downtrend. However this could turn into a bull trap.

Kommentar: Quick look at the 8HR Chart to see if there were clues for when the drop will stop:
- BTC was in rising wedge reversal pattern before it did break down. According to the rules of this pattern price should drop the same amount as the third side of the wedge, as indicated by the red arrow. This level has been reached and indeed as it stands price is now recovering. Volume was decreasing which validates this pattern.
- Note how the prior falling wedge continuation pattern did continue trend as expected and approximately the amount expected by the pattern (green arrow). Volume was increasing which validates this pattern.

Kommentar: BTC broke down again overnight. I have identified another key level at 10577 (emphasised in thick black). This is previous S / R on the 4HR chart and the 1D. As noted yesterday the 50 and 100 EMA are both also around this level (both shown in bright green). This confluence is a bullish sign. Volume is also decreasing suggesting exhaustion from the bears (although its only a slight decrease).

If BTC rejects this then, as noted yesterday we will likely drop down to the next green S box (9220 - 9590).



Note: This additional level was first identified by CryptoCred in his updates. I recommend you check them out. I am learning so much from this guy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujIye25GI4E&feature=push-u&attr_tag=Ep2jI9FTsG5Kak0u-6
Kommentar: - So MM suddenly pushed the markets lower across all exchanges at the same time it seems! Massive sell volumes orchestrated simultaneously.
- Despite panic selling / FUD the previous 4HR support I had at 9499 is holding very well.
- We had a classic Dojo candle indicating indecision. And looks like there will then be another one.
- I have added a new 4HR S/R at 10000 as it has been used a number of times recently and is a psychological level.
- We broke through the downward 1D trend which I have highlighted now in dark red. This is bearish. Hopefully this becomes support for an uptrend.
- Channel is currently sideways between 9499 and 10000.



On 1D chart price has dropped below the 50 and 100 EMA which will now act as resistance. Price did not test the 200 EMA.


On 30 Min and 1HR we are seeing price start to respect the red support line so....
Kommentar: 4HR:
- Bullish divergence as shown with the green lines. Bears trying to push price lower but failed. Momentum is not with them at a lower price. Also note how the price failed to return back to the Head and Shoulders neckline (which is our 9232 level and the 0.236 fib).

Kommentar: Highest 15 Min buy volume on a candle since 2nd Feb. Is this the bottom....obviously too soon to call given the low timeframe...

Kommentar: Quick Note:
- I have added in the Fib levels from the recent low to the recent high as shown by green arrow and green circle. The 0.618 key fib level aligns with the existing dotted (4HR) level.

Kommentar: Bears seem to be loosing momentum:
- Sell volume dropping, buy volume increasing
- RSI Oversold in the 4HR and 8HR charts.
- Price finding support on the fib 0.5 (yellow)

Kommentar: Update on the 9th held true and we did read correctly the end of momentum for the downtrend....for now at least.

Looking today we see:
- Price bounced around the fib 0.5 level and is now using the previously drawn 9232.3 level as support
- W Bottom is forming.
- RSI trend is upward BUT there is a key level around 60 which we have still failed to break

Look out for:
- Break of RSI above 60
- Higher period candles closing above the previously indicated 10577.0 level (fib 0.236) to confirm the W bottom and a return to a bull market

Kommentar: Much anticipated G20 summit proved to positive for BTC and Crypto generally:
- https://uk.news.yahoo.com/bitcoin-prices-surge-g20-gives-085900432.html
- https://www.congress.gov/115/crpt/hrpt596/CRPT-115hrpt596.pdf (see P201)

Weekly Chart:
- Last week the wick bounced from the upward trendline and the 50 EMA


Daily Chart
- Potential Adam and Eve reversal in play
- The recent low on the 18th was higher than the previous low of the 6th Feb. New support trendline added in green. Other trendline is the longtern one reaching back to March 2017.
- Price shot through the 4HR resistance at 8596 yesterday (on strong volume) which was bullish. There has been allot of historic volume at this level as shown by the VPVR indicator

Look out for:
- How price reacts to the red zone (starting at 9223). Can it turn this into support?
- For price to move through the red downward trendline. A string candle through here would (for me) indicated the bulls are back in charge.
- RSI is looking good but need to see it start to move and stay above 50.


All in all I would say we are starting to look for positive but still in no-buy zone until market makes up its mind.
Trade ist aktiv: I have been on vacation for a month. Looking at the current TA based on my previous S&R levels we are out of the downtrend that started back in mid December. Main signs:
- Broken downtrend (red line) on the log scale chart.
- RSI above 60 for the first time since the downtrend started.
- Broken into cloud for the first time since downtrend started.
- Above the 50 & 100 EMA. Broken into the 200 EMA. If we close above this then this will start to act as support. I Have always said that bear market starts and ends when price moves below and above the 200.
- Increasing buy volume and higher buy volumes than sell.

Looking forward
- Flat topped cloud indicates that BTC may start to move sideways.
- If we push through the red resistance zone, thick dotted resistance level & psychological 10K levels then price will surge higher. Look for the two higher resistance zones for initial targets.
- Looking for a golden cross (50 EMA / 100 EMA cross) if price momentum continues. Will be a further bull sign.

Position:
- I am adding BTC positions gradually on dips as we rise whilst adjusting stop loss. Current Stop Loss at 8185 thick dotted support level. STOP LOSSES ARE CRITICAL since this market could reverse again.

Thanks for your thorough explanations!
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