twismo

BTC-USD - Are we at the bottom?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
The question on everyone lips. Let's take a look at the charts.

1D Chart
Starting with the 1D to get the broad picture. Remember as well that signals on the higher charts are more reliable.
Key levels of Support/Resistance are:
11470 - Has acted as strong support and resistance on the 1HR chart between 21st Jan and 29th Jan when it finally gave way to the downside. Will now act as resistance on the way back up.
10700 - Was the bottom of the wick that ended the fall on the 22nd December. Has provided support multiple times with no daily closing below it until we dropped on the 30th January. Will also now act as resistance.
Upper Box - Indicates area of support which we are now testing. This was a bullish accumulation zone back in 28/29th November on the daily. It has been drawn wider to account for the accumulation candles on the 4HR chart at this time as below:
snapshot

9232 - Was the bottom of the wick from the 17th Jan (and lowest recent low). This will act as resistance and is within the box discussed above.
Lower Box - If we drop through the upper box and the 9232 level then the price could drop to this lower region which aligns with the last significant level of accumulation (16th-24th December). There was very little volume previously between the upper and lower boxes so it may fall through as quickly as it went up.

RSI has been below 50 for a while reflecting the continued bearish sentiment. It is currently tracking down and is at 35. Will it drop further? August 2016 was the last time that the RSI fell below 30 (classic oversold zone) (Note: same date was also the last death cross on the 8HR - see below). The recovery back in May 2017 happened when RSI was at 35 which is the current level. More recent recoveries happened on the 30 (July & Sept 2017). In Nov 2017 is happened at 42 when the market sentiment was extraordinarily bullish dismiss this as an anomaly. Given that we witnessed a death cross on the 8HR recently we could potentially drop below the 30 - I would not be surprised based on this indicator.

Oscillators
200 EMA - We are currently only 7% above this key average. If we move below it then I would consider that we are officially in a bear market. We have not dropped below this since Nov 15!!

8HR Chart
The last time we had a death cross on the 8HR was way back in August 2016 (see below). At the time the cross coincided with the bottom of that drop. The bottom turned into the left side of a W pattern and the market recovered. The 50 EMA recovered to be above the 200 only 26 days later and it has been above it ever since....until now.
snapshot


Fundamentals
There is ALLOT of FUD spreading going on currently with daily stories being released from South Korea, China, India, Tether. Most of these stories being published in mainstream news are out of date and seem to be being released at times that coincide with BTC             price down trends. It is not a stretch to think that this is market manipulation and that institutional investors are trying to shake out weak hands.

SUMMARY
We are at key junction for $BTC. We need to see how price holds up in the upper box region and how it responds to returning to the 200 EMA . The RSI and historical volume plus all of the FUD and negativity indicate we could drop further into the lower box region - 8500 or below.

"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity"
This is not investment advice.

If you found this helpful or disagree with any of it please comment below. Also please follow me if you want to see future analysis on Crypto pairs.
Kommentar: Gulp!!!

snapshot
Trade ist aktiv: I picked up some $BTC at around 8300 level. I just couldn't resist at the price although I know it can drop further! Indeed it did drop to 8000 but found allot of buy orders at this level. Huge green candle on the 8HR chart. This was followed by some selling. Overall it is still down currently on the day.

On the 1D chart (below) we are currently dancing on the important 200 EMA line. Remember that we have not had price cross below this for years. Until a daily closes below this to my mind we are not in a bear market. This appears to be acting as a support and could put the breaks on the drop. Let's hope so...

Thoughts below please!!

snapshot
Kommentar: Just posting a clearer image of the price on 200 EMA.
snapshot
Trade ist aktiv: I have set buys at the 7500 level. This was a strong area of accumulation and resistance previously so will hopefully act as much needed support.
Thanks for your thorough explanations!
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