Castleburning
Short

Bitcoin — Comparative Bubble Analysis

HITBTC:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
This prediction is based on a comparison with the dotcom bubble.

I wanted to compare the price development of Bitcoin             with that of a previous bubble, namely the dotcom one.

I extrapolated the data to infer (an unknown) from something that is known

———

The percentages are taken from the rise and fall of the nasdaq chart, and I applied them to the bitcoin             chart.

The percentages seem to be 'magically' correlated with round numbers for bitcoin             .


This is the Nasdaq comparison chart:
(I used the weekly chart to compensate for the speed difference)



Kommentar:
Kommentar: Inline with a major trendline:
Kommentar: Comparison
Kommentar: Astoundingly similar...
I think your research is great but to have a bubble you need mass adoption. Only about 1-3% of people even know about bitcoin so it is far from being in a bubble. If you look at your dot com chart, I would estimate that we are about in the market correction of late summer of 1998 if I were to pick a correlation point. Crypto currencies haven’t even begun to used yet. We are in the infancy of this market and I see it being years before there will be a bubble.

Cheers!
Don
Antworten
@longbowdon, It depends on your definition of a bubble. Fact is we strayed from the main trend-line in an exponential fashion. This is my definition of a bubble. A bubble can occur on any scale, big or small and usually is followed by a correction. So a bubble doesn't have to only occur when 'all the people know about it' or 'all the people use it'.
Antworten
Nice idea !
Antworten
Very interesting! It also appears to me that cryptos "synchronize" with the Dow's performance and after the Dow closes they go their own way and re-sync in the morning. I'm learning how to use the charts but hopefully soon I'll figure out how to do the analysis. The Dow opening today is very, very important - may just set off the crypto crash too.
Antworten
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