Today's episode (Episode 4) of The Trend is a two chart special! We take a look at multiple time scales, and issue ideas for short, medium, and slightly longer term trades. Furthermore we take a look at the long term phase change and discuss the possibility of us having undergone an important shift in market behavior. A potential Wyckoff phase change (Wyckoff event). We are in a great time for new Bitcoin heads to prepare their accumulation strategies. I am long, and I think you should be too. I recommend buying here, but don't go all in!
Why not go all in?
We are missing a single point of the accumulation cycle test. That is a secondary test from the local low. We have not done that. I think we need to reach back down to support at some point in time. When? No idea. It could be coming with any of these moves towards resistance. In all likelihood we will not test support to the same extreme as before. This secondary test may not penetrate the 8,000 level. That is acceptable. If we test, we will reach to a trend level, whether its a 2017 trend or its just the local trend off the automatic rally, it doesn't really matter. We just need a retest. This retest/secondary test (presence or lack thereof) is not a show stopper. I have seen plenty of rally's, especially in the crypto-verse take place without having a secondary test of the absolute bottom. We do have secondary tests of the selling climax. That can be good enough for a phase change.
Entering the Accumulation Cycle
When an asset enters this cycle it's vital to have a long term plan, and long term discipline. I recommend buys here with the intent to hold long term. Typically coming off the bottom you don't get very many good chances to buy, as the term is sideways at a support level just above the bottom. That should look familiar to all of us, as we are there right now. Typically you can expect two trading ranges before supply becomes exhausted and we get high result for low effort (and the beginning of the markup). If we do indeed get our secondary test, you're going to want to have some spare change in your wallet to make another buy! So make sure you are laddering/dollar cost averaging/portfolio balancing your purchases throughout this cycle. It could well be a very long cycle. Prepare yourselves!
Very educational, thank you for taking the time to do that! I'll be sure to follow any upcoming videos as well.
Cheers!
blessmywork
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@cryptobyte, Right on! Thank you! I take that as a huge compliment. Thank you for stopping by, and taking the time to comment! You're very kind!
ttt4567
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Really liked your video as always.
Could you tell us something about ETH? It has a very bullish MACD cross on daily chart but weekly MACD looks very bearish. I very well may misunderstand the indicators, any clarification would be awesome!
Keep it up!
blessmywork
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@ttt4567, Great question. Its possible. I've been bullish on ETH for a long time, but my feeling of it having more room to run-up is slowly evaporating. For the long term, I am no longer holding ETH in huge quantities, I sold most of it off. We'll see at doing a chart on it at some point.
Wolfgang34
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@nukenowakowski thank you so much for your excellent TA! I just started watching your videos and they have been superb. You saved me from selling at 8500. I have been 100% invested since 6500, but am considering taking some profits here around 9600. Do you suggest holding for 10,500 area?
blessmywork
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@Wolfgang34, I suggest holding. I suggest placing stop-limit's at the 23% retrace from the re point of last resistance (not the resistance its currently fighting). Let it run. How hard would you kick yourself if it ran to 17k? ... How would that affect your strategy?
Placing stop limits behind it, in case it runs back down to 6.5k is perfectly acceptable. Thats how the big boys protect profits. So trade like a king, and put your stop-limit on.
zak6111
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v.good effort
blessmywork
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@zak6111, Thank you for the kind words! I appreciate you stopping by and leaving a comment! Thanks!
CryptoSteve564
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Nice work.
blessmywork
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@CryptoSteve56584, Thank you for the compliment, I appreciate it.
Cheers!