I believe the bottom of the correction will be at $8800 for a few reasons.
If we look at the natural price progression of BTC, had it naturally progressed instead of going completely parabolic at the end of last year, the price would be at exactly $8800, which also happens to be the 200 EMA and a very strong support. Moreover, we are just about to be oversold.
If we break under the the 200 EMA, we may very well enter a long bear market with the next strong support level at around $6000. OUCH.
A *LOT* of institutional money is about to enter the market. For this reason, I don't think we'll break below the 200 EMA. The last time we were trading under the 200 EMA was Oct 15, 2015 following a long bear trend. We are likely on our way to a recovery within the next few days.
You are ignoring other indicators that are important. FIB levels are already broken beyond repair which indicates a 100% retracement. I would look at it from a historical price perspective. BTC has more 100% corrections than people know about lol. Keep up the ideas flowing. ;)