I am going to keep this neutral although this is a bear chart. Ultimately, I just wanted to post this chart so I can say in the future that "hey! maybe I was right afterall!". What has been confusing for some time is whether the correction is indeed over. I rechecked all the data and I conclude that the correction from 20k is indeed over as of the 6k bounce. The only thing I am unclear of is whether that correction was the end of mega wave 4, and mega wave 5 has already started. If this wave 5 has started, we should be going to 32k or so but the long term daily indicator is not fanatically bullish although that could change... depending on the flow. But if you zoom out and really look at just the candles, it really does not scream "Mortgage the house and buy me now!". It looks more like the chart of a financial crisis in play.
Now let us look at the wave counts since the bounce at 6k. Some bull chart are counting the smaller waves as 1234 and we are now on wave 5 since the bounce from 9.3k with a potential pullback to 9.9k before it goes off to the moon. If you are bull and you are late to the party, that's probably your entry call to the moon club. On the other hand, from my perspective... I feel some EW users are just forcing the wave counts and it looks more like an ABC climb imo, which marks the start of a long term / mid term bear market. And so for my chart, I am expecting downwards movement all the wave to roughly 7.5k for now. This fall will open the door to lower BTC prices in the long term such as the 2.5k BTC target but that is the stretch target to talk about after we reach 7.5k.
For now, the interesting turning point for both the bull and bear EW charts is around $9100 mark, although a break below $9500 is likely to lose investor confidence right away. If $9100 breaks then the impulse wave 12345 for the moon is invalided and needs to be recount and we can say "Omg, GramTooNoob is from the future! We're going down!"
Assuming both bull and bear analysis are correct then we are expecting a pullback sometime soon from $10588 instead of a straight moon (even though its above the major trendline). Thus, for now we wait and see although my short position is already open. In the event of a straight moon, I believe a break above $11250 is a clear bull sign. Hmm... that's it. Don't think I missed anything, its up to the bulls and bears to fight for the ball now and decide the future direction.
Tip Jar for Beer, Pizza and more Google Home. I love this Google Home speaker! BTC: 16VhzB59twANDvinuWzGJqdNWor9b9Uym2 LTC: LgegoiHGwN8UmoobmSn69nrDU3fvjTuudp ETH: 0xA21844A23d6C18384101E67313C1260449F5cbf2
Thanks for the update... Whilst we are in this no mans land... I am curious about your ideas on MM trying to force bag holders to sell... I have the following thoughts:
1. They must be very big bag holders... but also with plenty of cash in their pockets... so they are in no urgent need to cash in...
2. Exit pumps have not tempted them to get out... and they do not even flinch when it dumps... they really are targeting 100k... 500k... 1000k...
3. MM would like to get prices more affordable to get (a.) more people in the market, (b.) get the ball rolling to higher highs and (c.) possibly influence mass adoption - which would definitely change the balance of power from current financial institutions, but would also mean an end to volatility to make it usable day to day...
4. But the amount of coins supply withheld by bagholders from the market, keeps the price from coming down...
1) MM does not need to hold any existing crypto, just need capital. They buy and sell off immediately, making profit on the spread.
2) MM don't have full control of the market price, especially when retail players keeps "pumping" the price. MM just play along, and sometimes they buy to dump higher.
3) MM makes money off the spread so they like to keep price where there are lots of volume. Affordability does not matter, so long as price range is attractive for milking.
4) MM only needs to be concern with these bagholders if they make the market by shorting to buyers instead of selling from inventory. They get screwed over when long term holders keeps buying the "bottom" and holding, preventing MM from closing the shorts lower. This is a common game between various manipulators as they attempt to squeeze each other.
1. They must be very big bag holders... but also with plenty of cash in their pockets... so they are in no urgent need to cash in...
2. Exit pumps have not tempted them to get out... and they do not even flinch when it dumps... they really are targeting 100k... 500k... 1000k...
3. MM would like to get prices more affordable to get (a.) more people in the market, (b.) get the ball rolling to higher highs and (c.) possibly influence mass adoption - which would definitely change the balance of power from current financial institutions, but would also mean an end to volatility to make it usable day to day...
4. But the amount of coins supply withheld by bagholders from the market, keeps the price from coming down...