We are entering or, should I say attempting to re-enter, the channel we have been in for almost this entire run. Except for that loading of the spring the past 2 days to get there. I believe today will be a day for the longs. I would look to a move of the upper side of the channel where you may want to think about taking some profit at this point where my arrows are. I may look at cutting my holdings to half at 12K but also believe we will get a new rush of media hype at this point. Action around here will be something to watch. I will let you know my move when we arrive...until then take this as one mans simple opinion as I am not a financial adviser. Make your own charts, your own decisions and enjoy your own profitable trades
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I would love to know who is shorting this right now??
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So I certainly thought we would get to 10K today but initially called for it on the 16th. I have adjusted my target arrows to that point. I am not selling any portion at this point as I could easily see a pop to 12K. Judgement will have to be made by the reaction at 10K and TA. Remember the 23rd brings the CME closures I believe we will see the exact same large volume in the US am opening and a pop up. This is where I may sell and when I believe we will be testing the 12K region. Remember these are just educated guesses based on the emotion in the market, the TA from these charts, and the fundamentals that are in play out there. This could at the same time double bottom. Be careful out there and stay frosty. These are just my opinions I am not a financial adviser. This market can move fast. Trade based on your own understanding and never with anything more than what you can afford to lose.
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So you can see we respected the sub channel top within out main channel twice. We then broke through that as expected and on that break had another move up. I have changed that channel to green as it will now act as support. It looks as if we may hit 10K today instead of tomorrow as predicted, but since I am long it does not concern me. If anything I take it as emotions are changing faster than expected and I may not take anything off after the initial break of 10K. approx 10200 will be an interesting area to watch as you can see we have quite a bit going on there. A major Fib line and a major trendline down which we (long hope to break). Now to bring it into perspective we are going to have many traders, as you saw early this morning, take some profit at 10K...Im not worried about that. But past 10K we have a ton of conservative longs waiting for this to break as confirmation for their trade and a buy therefore being issued. Along with all of this you have CME expirations on the 23rd. Now last month we were in a bear cycle and many people bought 'puts' or shorts if you will, against bitcoin. You saw what happened on both of those days during the expirations...volume went up and price went down. I believe we will have about the equal and opposite reaction this month. You saw the first CBOE settlements yesterday and I believe the 23rd will produce much the same. This is the momentum we need to break this kind of resistance. Then you add in media coverage that bitcoin is alive again gaining 100% returns in 10 days and poof just like that we are back in a raging bull market. Now this is quite a few stars that have to align. Its possible.. but so is going back down for a double bottom. It is my belief we are already on track to not do that. This is my opinion take it for just something to think about...do not lose money based on my non-financial advise and as always only 'play' with what you are willing to lose!