According to one of my potential Elliott Wave counts, we have just completed our intermediate wave (A) and minor wave 5. This tells us that we should expect to begin our intermediate wave (B) and minor 1 upwards. I had been tracking what appears to be a leading diagonal before noticing the potential for a bearish deep crab harmonic . IF this harmonic pattern confirms, I will post a follow-up on a trade idea for that.

I am posting this now, as a potential long swing trade of low risk. We should expect strong support at the $9,000 price level, so as we are currently floating around $9,100, just below $9,000 can be our stop loss.

Deep crab harmonic rules:
B is a 0.886 fib retracement of XA, not to exceed point X
BC is between a 0.382 and 0.886 fib ratio of AB
CD reverses at 1.618 fib extension of XA, and extremes of 2.816 to 3.618 of BC

All of these criteria are met so far, except for that of the CD leg. By taking advantage of being just above an expected support, we can enter this long trade with a tight stop loss below $8,900. I have noticed some harmonic patterns fall just shy of our targets, so I would begin taking profit just before $10,000. If $10,000 resistance is broken, the target range would be $10,250-$10,500.

We should also be mindful of the 0.618 fib resistance, from our previous high, we can expect around $10,300. I also STRONGLY recommend the use of stop-losses as we are in a rising wedge , which is generally a bearish reversal pattern.

Buy: $9,100
Sell target: $10,250-$10,500
Stop: $8,900
Risk/Reward ratio: ~3.5

Although this is a bearish harmonic , it is not yet confirmed. We are looking to take advantage of the current price in relation to an anticipated support in hopes of the harmonic completing. As mentioned above, I will update with a short trade idea if this harmonic completes.

Kommentar: The original wedge broke down, but still holding above $9,000. May have just been premature in calling wave 4 completed.
Trade geschlossen: Stop wurde erreicht: Most likely this will be a channel rather than a diagonal triangle. Lesson learned that I should wait for the 4th wave to complete. The harmonic may still be in play, will update accordingly.