BTCUSD update: Price is making its way higher as anticipated now that it has penetrated the 11600 resistance area. The bigger picture presents a bullish pennant formation which continues to point to an eventual retest of 20K or higher.
You can interpret this environment in many similar ways depending on how you draw the parallel trend lines. Bullish flag, pennant, etc. The idea to take away is this short term price pattern is a broad bullish continuation pattern. Which for me, means this market is more than likely not going any lower than 8K. On top of that if you consider the highly bullish context of the general environment and velocity of expanding technology, it all points to strength.
If you have not taken any longs yet, there is still opportunity, but risk has slightly increased. The 11600 old support/new resistance level has been compromised which indicates bullish momentum is present. The problem is buying in this area is essentially the same as buying in the middle of a range where price action is most random.
In terms of a position trade long, a lower risk alternative is to start a very small position, something like 20% or less of your usual position size. The idea behind this is if price continues higher without any significant retrace, at least you capture some of it while keeping risk under control. If price pulls back, (which is very possible at current levels) you can then add to your position on the formation of a subsequent higher low. The price area to anticipate such a formation is now the 10534 to 9989 support zone which is the .618 area relative to the recent bullish swing.
The scenario I would prefer to see is price retesting the low at 9683 for a double bottom or failed low formation. I DON'T KNOW if this will happen, but if it does I am prepared to buy more.
When I position trade, I am participating on the broader time frame which means using stops will not be effective since price moves can be sharp and dramatic. I prefer to control my risk with careful sizing. IF the market collapses (ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN), I will not be as affected because I only add when the market is in line with my scenario, not against it.
If price works its way up to the 15K area which is in the middle of the 14211 to 15525 resistance zone (.618 of recent bearish swing), I will be looking to LOCK IN some profit from my position trade. You may wonder: Why sell there when it's going to 20K? I am not controlled by greed. I lock in profits when the herd gets excited and buys into an area where there is a better chance the market will pull back again. I make decisions based on estimates and general probabilities, not feelings. Plus there is no guarantee that this market will reach 20K. And if it does, I will still have a small portion of my original position.
One other notable observation about the 15K area is it also overlaps with the upper boundary of the bullish pennant formation. If price cannot break out, then there is a better chance of it retesting the middle or lower regions of the pennant.
In summary, if you find yourself confused in a market like this, the first thing to do is zoom out and to get a clearer perspective. So many people get caught up on the smaller time frames, that they lose perspective of the broader intent of the market which always carries more weight. This market is bullish, even if it pulls back and retests the lows, that would be a buying opportunity in my opinion. Keep in mind my bullish outlook is also based on the context of this environment which is also another factor often overlooked by inexperienced traders. As far as adding to my position, I am choosing to wait for a retest of the 10534 to 9989 area for a reversal formation. Remember effectiveness in trading does not come from charts and indicators. It comes from knowing how to put the information derived from such tools into perspective in light of your own risk tolerance.
I think what Marc is saying (AS ALWAYS) is this ... It's not picking actual prices ie,. 8K or 9K ... whatever. It is about RISK, TIMING and SIZING. Risk/Reward is a the centre of everything. The risk/reward ratio looks more attractive at 8K than it does here. But if you like, sure load up here but your PUNTING not trading. I have been out for a long waiting time for the right risk/reward moment and I have been rewarded for not blowing capital at the wrong time just because I got a twitchy trigger finger.
PATIENCE PATIENCE! Its hard to do but doable.
Anyway ... listening to Marc is optional but I made it mandatory before I commit any of my capital to this market.
Keep up the awesome work Marc. Thank you
milanjelic
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Again you @MarcPMarkets with all those bullish momentum and confirmations, indicators and made up stuff
You are trying to present bullish momentum with incomplete picture given.
Watch and learn.
milanjelic
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@ReubsM, Your chart are better.
Ohhhh, sorry, you don't have any.
PipEze
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Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
milanjelic
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@balocik, I haven't saw better commend lately. (clap)
wp @balocik
ap519925
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oops lol
muaddib83
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I quit for some time now - lost some last days. Too much. It is easy to lose all. It is better to go out just leave small portion that you are not emotionally involved with.
1. BTC went 1000% last year - it must go down, it wasnt adopted anywhere
2. Wealthy jews hate it
3. You all hate it - you were manipulated into XRP, BCH, low crap coins and good alts - they are killing bitcoin. Until you hodl alts btc will drop.
Whales doesn't need to do ANYTHING and btc will drop - you won't be buying - you are on ALTS.
Whales will bleed you out this year - I don't know how long it will take - maybe 6m maybe a year. 90% of hodlers will lose patience, make bad sells/buys. BTC will drop low - hard to say where. Now you all think - wow when it drops to 8 I BUY. But when it does, and drop more - what will you do:P
I doubled my money from 10.17 - 12.17 - quited, got back and lost 10% of it. I take 70%, leave 20%. If it drops - good, maybe I buy when it will be 5k. If goes up - my 20% will make money. When I see that Amazon, FB, Steam, Apple adopt crypto - I go in.
Right now XRP will kill you - they can dump it in 1 day!! same as Bitconnect.
I will wait for Big exchange crush + tether crash + xrp dump - then BTC drops to 500$? THen I buy - and I tell you tether will crush - if not now, it will in 1y.
It would be so nice to go all in now - buy 2btc (all my cash) and double it in few months - yeah but chances for it now are like 20%. In 10.11.17 - chances were 75% - simple RISK MANAGEMENT
DrStein
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I do respect your knowledge and experience but I think that nobody in here knows how the crypto market will behave. Predictions are easy when the trend is obvious but when uncertainty is ruling the game all the indicators and predictions fail. Crypto market is the anarchy of currency and no one can easily say that we are bullish or bearish in times like this. Who can tell where is the price will bounce for sure?
josephtse
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I think we're going sub-10,00. If you look on the 12H graph, the 75dma is about to cross the 100dma down. Also, look at the double bottoms from Dec-24 and Dec-31 and you can see the RSI was in the same vicinity as it is now, and the MACD is about the same amount negative. That means we can fall 3000 to 4000 points from current levels for the double bottom. The RSI and MACD are actually weaker here than the Dec 24 bottom, so we will definitely retest the 9300 bottom. We are in a huge descending channel of the post top, and the channel doesn't converge until middle of April down at $5000. Wish I could show my chart, I don't know how to attach my chart here.
PATIENCE PATIENCE! Its hard to do but doable.
Anyway ... listening to Marc is optional but I made it mandatory before I commit any of my capital to this market.
Keep up the awesome work Marc. Thank you