Ok here we go : BTC has to correct before going higher. Or it hits 30k first and then retraces. How will it retrace? ( don't look at the dates, these are just 3 general ideas)
1st way to look at BTC/USD : here we will simply take a look at the orange trendline we've been following for the last 2 years now. If we believe the trend will stay valid for quite some time to come, when BTC takes a needed correction, price shouldn't move much lower than 18k usd. Give or take ofcourse, it could aswel be 20.000 because it's a magic number, you get the point. So moving from 18-20k to +50k in dec 2021 ? This is what i consider the 1st possible way to look at BTCUSD right now.
2nd way : not much explanation needed, we will use the much visited green 10k line, which as you can see has turned from resistance to support and vice versa many times in the past. A huge psychological figure ofcourse, 10k. Will this be the level we revisit in case 20k doesn"t hold? So from 10k to +50k in dec 2021?
Ooorrrrrrr will it be the 3rd way, here we use the "supermagical-everyonegetstoberich" purple 3k line and the 8 ( or 9 haha) purple circles. The story of the 8 (or 9 haha) purple circles goes like this :
Circle 1 : "Hey Joe!" Ever heard about BTC? Here,take 1000BTC for 1000$ Ok, i will, says Joe and he now owns 1000 BTC.
Circle 2 : "Hey Joe!" BTC reached 1000$, you're a millionaire! Great! says Joe, i'll sell half my stock but keep the other half because i believe in the potential of BTC!
Circle 3 : "Hey Joe!" BTC reached 3000, you became a millionaire again! Great! says Joe, but i'll sell at 5000, it'll reach that number because heck, since we're at 3000 already, why not make it 5000, it's such a beautiful number and it'll satisfy peoples emotions.
Some time later btc reached 5000, Joe sold, AND BOUGHT BACK AT 3000.
-----> BTC 3000? YES BTC 5000? NO ! and back to 3000
Circle 4 : "Hey Joe!" BTC reached 20.000, you became a billionaire ! Great! says Joe, sold all his BTC because :
because circle 5 : he'll buy back at 3000
------> BTC 3000? YES ------> BTC 20000? NO! and back to 3000
Circle 6 : Joe sold at 13.000k and guess what??!!!
Circle 7 : he bought back at 3000 !!
-------> BTC 3000? YES 13000? NO! and back to 3000
Circle 8 : Here we are 27-28k (possibly 30k next days?) , and Joe is here too, selling his btc to buy back at cirlce 9? WHY NOT!?!?
Thank you for reading, let me know which way you think it'll be in 2021, and pls be kind, this is the very 1st thing i post here.
You miss the point that noobs becoming a minority on the market where institutional players coming in. Since that we don’t expect such volatility in upcoming circles. Whether it goes down and stays there or it goes up and stays there, the further we move the less crazy ups and downs (ie cheap corn)
ShotGunJoe83
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@Bladerunner2021, i understand this and to a certain point i agree but... the noobs you mention, they were making money longing BTC and shorting BTC, why couldn't the institutions do the same? shorting i mean, but just with bigger numbers than the noobs? Why does no one consider this possibility?
Bladerunner2021
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@ShotGunJoe83, less noobs more corp players mean that there will be whole another level of trades difficulty and less volatility. It's. not about numbers, simply if the market is full of pro players than no one is buying the expected by majority TOP and not selling the DIP. Less "buy high, sell low positions", so if no one is buying the top whose money are you going to scalp? same if most traders are pro's and they are acknowledged(due to their analysis) that btc will go from 30k for example back to 10k and then to 50k, then it's probably not going to touch those 10k and will bounce much earlier. So on such market retail traders will become a cheap corn and will take most of the losses especially during day trading.
@Bladerunner2021, actually, i'ld like to add something. Your explanation, it makes sense in a way, but it also sounds a bit as if the powerful institutions are the only ones owning btc. There are also the rich people, the early adopters, wales in any form, plus all noobs as you call them. I mean, all those have been riding the waves for years now and the really smart people made money riding up AND down and my honest guess is that they want to and will keep doing so, and the institutions will hapily ride along and also make money up and down.