BTCUSD: Long term forecast/guess

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Just documenting this one. I think it's clear the bear market started, and I can already anticipate what we can see going forward...prices could eventually peak at $75,000 on the next bull run, but we will have to wait patiently for that. My plan is to accumulate more $BTC value in my crypto account with my remaining funds, and simply holding off from adding cash until it is clear the market is at the bottom of the correction.

Ivan Labrie.
Kommentar: Buy some gold with BTC...

Kommentar: I think we have a chance that the rally will remain in this sideways state until June. I reviewed the inflation adjusted $BTCUSD chart and the time for the uptrend to end falls between May and June of this year according to it. Considering the dollar depreciated significantly since 2009, the inflation adjusted chart might make more sense than using the normal one for long term forecasting.

I bought back some $BTC with my $ETH holdings for now, given that $ETH is likely to consolidate for 15 days.
Kommentar: ETH did start a consolidation as I expected. BTC fell below the stop zone for the longs though, so I'm out of it. I never got to sell $ETH, since it was taking ages to get to the exchange and I decided against selling. I hold crypto solely as a hedge for my exposure to brokerage firms currently, so I'm not worried if the whole market crashes and burns. It's a hedge, and a long term position, I can eat a 50-90% loss on it and still not be worried, but hopefully I will be on time to hedge my USD value by going short $BTC anywhere.
Kommentar: BTC WAS rekt...now should turn up again.


A couple guesses for the consolidation patterns. Depending on how it pans out, upside targets could end up being between 100k and 1 million, in the long term, after the 20 month consolidation period ends and we get a new signal of that scale.
Kommentar: Daily uptrend signal forming in $BTCUSD After this pans out, we could either go sideways for months, or break the ATH, culminating in a top by May/June. Chances are we saw the long term bottom in $BTC already, from the last peak at least.
Hi Ivan. Just looking through your earlier predictions. You were basically right :) Will you make a new update to the long term analysis?
+1 Antworten
@xpsan, yep mostly right overall, luckily.
I've updated this one, so far this signal is still active.
Hey Ivan, where are your updates from january 30?
after your yesterday's post I bought a few btc, at a price of 11.9k after 10 hours the price is already 11.3 why not growth?
IvanLabrie cardan6006
@cardan6006, people are scared and seemingly negative (but irrelevant) news came out. Despite it the chart is still bullish potentially.
I have a feeling you nailed this chart. I'm interested as to why you changed your mind?
@naldo, one thing is forecasting and another is trading. I constantly reasess and try to take opportunities with risk reward and probability on my side.
+1 Antworten
Wait, what about the long crypto-winter? Is BTC looking now more optimistic to you?