BTC/USD - The Market Must Decide Soon

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
This price action idea is based on simple trendlines and one single indicator showing the strength of the market.
There is no wave count, moving averages, etc..
This post does not include a trading setup, it is just my thoughts on potential price actions.

I find it very unlikely (still possible) that we keep trading sideways between 10K-12K.

My opinion is that the market will make up its mind rather soon.

There are two upper trendlines (in blue), that may serve as resistance. They also fall into psychological round numbers.

If the 10K support no longer holds, we might re-test the lower trendline . Which would be a bloodbath. I find it unlikely, but I keep telling myself not to be biased. We must still consider this scenario.
The chance of this scenario coming to fruition will increase if we get rejected at RSI60.
In that case, I will close all my alt/long term positions and look for possible short positions.

I have another idea on BTC             "My Analysis for BTC             2018Q1 - Short to $8200", you can find the link in the related ideas. That idea is based on wave counts and targets were based on fibonacci clusters.
I have labelled the two important bearish targets .618 & .786 levels with thick red lines on this chart.

In the case that we re-test lower trend line , it will mean we get a healthy retracement to the .786 level. It might sound implausible with 10K support holding strong. But never exclude the possibility.


This is a 6 hour chart of btc/usd.
The tug of war is real!
We might squeeze to the apex of the triangle (Feb7-9) before any major price movements.

Look closely!

Look at the wicks, this tug of war will have huge implications on price actions in both short/medium terms.
If support no longer holds, we short.

We are already below triangle's lower trend line, waiting for a close below previous support to confirm new short opportunities

This is 30 min chart. If we close below the dashed line, we take a deep breath, close our long term holds, and start looking for shorts.

This might be the most important 30 mins of bitcoin (if we close below)
Trade ist aktiv: Lay buy orders at the two buy zones

using EMA50/55 as resistance/support on 15 minute chart to find entry for both long and shorts in a down trend.
Kommentar: I don't see any support before .618 fib. What do you guys/girls think?
Kommentar: I am no financial advisor. But imo, it's a good time to start a garage sell and put it all into long term crypto portfolio.

I will be building mine/sharing it very soon!
(I'm talking about >1 year positions here)
Kommentar: .618 is showing now support.
Will we test .786?
Kommentar: no support*
Kommentar: Short term fib. resistance for long

- $9422
- $10178

I view this as an ABC correction to the upside in a downtrend.

Current price ~$9400 is at .618 retracement and 1:1 move on A:C
Next resistance is $10178, giving us a 1:1.618 move on A:C
Kommentar: We are on our way to re-test .618

Should it not hold there is structural resistance for short @ 7K
And next fib resistance at around 5K
Trade ist aktiv: 7K is holding for now. Should it fail I expect a straight dump to the red box.
Trade ist aktiv: 7K has failed to hold. We are close to red box now.
I expect to reach .786 ret
Trade ist aktiv: Touched upper trendline and now going to red box.
do you think the correction is over or its just take a breath phase
@DNBoY, according to the charts, the correction will last months. Yes we will can go up 10% here and there, but re; reaching new all time highs. Not anytime soon.
+1 Antworten
@AlexCH, i completely agree with you
gusccbb AlexCH
@AlexCH, I see that I completely change the scenario. Enter the market in January thinking about an investment a few months and I left positions in BTC and XRP, late, barely saving capital and leaving profits on the road. I do not see that it's time to think long. I only cut for a couple of months at least I think. It was not my intention to enter but it is what the market imposes now. Thanks for sharing your knowledge in this field Alex. Your opinion is very valid. Tks
would love another update! Expect it to retest .618 support? Or is that support no longer in play?
I personally expect 5000-7000 range. December I said that Bitcoin is too much overpriced and should correct to 4000-5000 range. Nobody believes me. It seems price will go to normal until next bubble starts.
@nixel, You have no post during last December, link to TA?
nixel AlexCH
I have not trading ideas for btc. I just put some comments -
nixel AlexCH
@AlexCH, according records it was written in November.
I notice at August starting of unreal growth. At that time I was not registered here.
Showing now support or showing no support? thx!
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