Basically i consider a visit to sub 10k almost guaranteed. Supported both by simple technical analisys and fundamental analisys.
Once there there are multiple options. We could be in early 2013 or late 2013.
GREEN: A major bubble incoming, public sees sub 10k btc cheap and the dip is rapidly bought. We reach 100k in 18 months.
BLUE: Institutional rails provide the needed liquidity to absorb weak hands and we keep the same log all time trend up that will take us to 100k in about three years.
RED: Panic puke. Even grandma panics and bitcoin breaks all time trend to puke down to 1k. We reach 100k in less than five years.
- Slow and expensive transactions - Median transaction fee of 13 usd and average transaction fee of 26 usd. Months of a constant backlog of transactions clogging the network [SOURCE1, SOURCE2]
- Tether-Bitfinex bad procedures - Tether officialy accepted not having working banking relations since April 17, and since then has issued 1450 million USDT. Meanwhile they still haven't published anything similar to a real audit despite promising yearly audits in their whitepaper [SOURCE 1] [SOURCE2] [SOURCE3]
- Overleveraged market [SOURCE1] [SOURCE2] [SOURCE3]
- Loosing leadership - Bitcoin already lost its position as the most transacted blockchain and the biggest usd in blockchain transactions. But it is still the biggest blockchain, something that could change in the future as the current trend (from 90% deominance to below 35%).
[SOURCE1] [SOURCE2] [SOURCE3]
- Bitcoin cash proved a bitcoin brand contender - Almost 6 months after the fork bitcoin cash didn't vanish at all. Almost every other dev team but BitcoinCore migrated to Bitcoin Cash , most key services either migrated or at least adopted Bitcoin Cash , trading and transacting is growing and community is strong. Something that didn't happen at all with any other scam fork, proving the real point and the real interest behind Bitcoin Cash . [SOURCE1] [SOURCE2] [SOURCE3] [SOURCE4]
- Stream of new buyers potentially drying out - Google trends chart for bitcoin realated search terms seems to have peaked [SOURCE1] [SOURCE2]
- Lack of on regulated derivatives - Despite all the hype around bitcoin futures and how Wall St . was desperate to get bitcoin exposure is low [SOURCE1]
Bitcoin regulations - SEC, PBOC and now South Korea regulators are tightening all the bitcoin related activities. Including but not limited to mining, trading and profiting.
It is symmetrical, it broke down at 11k and targets 6k.
Short the retest of breakdown and nearby :)
Triangle retested. Let's see if we cancel the break down or resume the move down.
Amazing resilience of $XEM that is now trading at $0.87 just ~10% shy of the levels prior the news geting released.
To put things in perspective: ~5.2% of the circulating supply of NEM tokens has been allegedly substracted, while Mt.Gox hack only affected ~2.8% of circulating btc.
Switched to long at the bottom.
This is my new "long" idea, targeting over 10k. Though as signaled in this chart by the "blue path" price could pump as high as 12.5k without breaking the bear case.
The wedge and the symmetrical triangles keep sugesting down. The head and shoulders does it too.
I know there is that trendline and there is this narrative that what we are seeing is just "Wall st. manipulation" because fo futures setlement. And I also can see some bullish fundamentals such as RSK and LN in mainnet, but overall i think the sentiment is pretty depressed because people is realizing we grew too much in a very short time and since "wall street" came in with their regulated derivatives we are only seeing sell pressure.
Tether is injecting hundreds of millions per week, much more than the ~15-20 daily we need to buy up miners coins, and still price is refusing to go up.
I know not making an ath in 35 days is not such a big deal and it has happened during this bull run since 200 usd
Anyways, through all this year shorting btcusd pair I have an strict risk management procedures that make me feel confident I can deal with any losses resulting from a mistaken analisys