Analysis of the latest development with BTC.
The 4HR EMA has crossed for the first time since 26th of February. The red lines represent lower highs or lower lows. The green represent higher highs or higher lows. We are in the process of creating a higher high. Does this mean the trend has reversed? Definitely not. The current count is 11 lower highs/lower lows compared to 4 higher lows and higher highs. This does not mean anything in itself except the overall trend is down.
The long position on the chart now does not represent a trade i am taking as my entry was lower(2% @ 8300) but only the risk reward ratio you would have to take if you were bullish, which isnt appealing. The positive EMA however allows opening long trades, as we have additional confirmation on the MACD, and Stoch RSI.
I entered a small position(2%) at 8300 upon the break and retest of the falling wedge. My strategy does not allow me to open sizable position without at least the 4hr EMAs crossing up, unless i see a severe capitulation and over reaction by the herd. I do not believe that happened with the 7200 low so i did not buy it. Ether was interesting and at the historical trend-line but i did not see the bottom in BTC yet. BTC still rules these markets, and that is why i did not take the trade. I placed a 2% trade upon the 2hr EMAs crossing up. i will look to add another 2-3% if dip and create a higher low. I need to see a higher low before adding to my position.
The key to trading successful for a long period of time is capital preservation and risk management. This strategy has allowed me to profit handsomely in the bear market, and not take any hits. I will share some thoughts and tips below with my faithful few followers and a strategy that will help you become a successful trader.
1. The number one fallacy of the 90% of the traders that fail are position sizes. To become successful you need not rush. Time is your ally and the longer you stay in the markets trading, the more successful you will become. Success happens over time by making 1000 small smart trades that offer good risk to reward, and growing your capital base and not 5 or 10 big trades that 100x your portfolio.
2. I do not care what valuation BTC is at, or how high/low it goes. the only important thing to a successful trader is movement in the market and taking smart low risk trades.
3. Another fallacy especially amongst Elliot wave theorist i see on trading view, is the that they try to predict the next 5 moves ahead of time. Its hard enough predicting the next move let alone 3-5. You cannot build a successful strategy around this.
4. You need to just analyze the current movement and weigh the risk vs reward and possible support and resistance. How high can it conservative go, and how low can it go? Use this to create a risk reward for each trade. Do not enter a trade before calculating your downside and ask yourself if you are willing to lose it on this trade. If you are then it is okay to enter.
A simple strategy below for trading against FIAT markets.
EMA - 8/55 - close and crossing.
1hr EMA cross up = max size of 1% of your portfolio
2hr EMA cross up = max size of 2% of your portfolio
4hr EMA cross up = max size of 5% of your portfolio
1D EMA cross up = max size of 10% of your portfolio (your max position ever)
These EMA crosses up will allow you to scale into a position. Seek 2 additional confirmations on each trade or addition to your position. MACD confirmation upon cross up. Stoch RSI, (6,6,20,20) upon cross up.
When MACD and Stoch RSI cross down you can close the trade based on your own assessment. If a lower time frame EMA crosses down you can reduce your position by the % above. To keep things simple i usually only trade on the 4HR EMA. 3 confirmations to buy, 2 to sell.
Let me know if you like the more in depth article and any comments or questions or discussion is welcome. Hope this insight is useful to some.
Best Regards
Ecic
The 4HR EMA has crossed for the first time since 26th of February. The red lines represent lower highs or lower lows. The green represent higher highs or higher lows. We are in the process of creating a higher high. Does this mean the trend has reversed? Definitely not. The current count is 11 lower highs/lower lows compared to 4 higher lows and higher highs. This does not mean anything in itself except the overall trend is down.
The long position on the chart now does not represent a trade i am taking as my entry was lower(2% @ 8300) but only the risk reward ratio you would have to take if you were bullish, which isnt appealing. The positive EMA however allows opening long trades, as we have additional confirmation on the MACD, and Stoch RSI.
I entered a small position(2%) at 8300 upon the break and retest of the falling wedge. My strategy does not allow me to open sizable position without at least the 4hr EMAs crossing up, unless i see a severe capitulation and over reaction by the herd. I do not believe that happened with the 7200 low so i did not buy it. Ether was interesting and at the historical trend-line but i did not see the bottom in BTC yet. BTC still rules these markets, and that is why i did not take the trade. I placed a 2% trade upon the 2hr EMAs crossing up. i will look to add another 2-3% if dip and create a higher low. I need to see a higher low before adding to my position.
The key to trading successful for a long period of time is capital preservation and risk management. This strategy has allowed me to profit handsomely in the bear market, and not take any hits. I will share some thoughts and tips below with my faithful few followers and a strategy that will help you become a successful trader.
1. The number one fallacy of the 90% of the traders that fail are position sizes. To become successful you need not rush. Time is your ally and the longer you stay in the markets trading, the more successful you will become. Success happens over time by making 1000 small smart trades that offer good risk to reward, and growing your capital base and not 5 or 10 big trades that 100x your portfolio.
2. I do not care what valuation BTC is at, or how high/low it goes. the only important thing to a successful trader is movement in the market and taking smart low risk trades.
3. Another fallacy especially amongst Elliot wave theorist i see on trading view, is the that they try to predict the next 5 moves ahead of time. Its hard enough predicting the next move let alone 3-5. You cannot build a successful strategy around this.
4. You need to just analyze the current movement and weigh the risk vs reward and possible support and resistance. How high can it conservative go, and how low can it go? Use this to create a risk reward for each trade. Do not enter a trade before calculating your downside and ask yourself if you are willing to lose it on this trade. If you are then it is okay to enter.
A simple strategy below for trading against FIAT markets.
EMA - 8/55 - close and crossing.
1hr EMA cross up = max size of 1% of your portfolio
2hr EMA cross up = max size of 2% of your portfolio
4hr EMA cross up = max size of 5% of your portfolio
1D EMA cross up = max size of 10% of your portfolio (your max position ever)
These EMA crosses up will allow you to scale into a position. Seek 2 additional confirmations on each trade or addition to your position. MACD confirmation upon cross up. Stoch RSI, (6,6,20,20) upon cross up.
When MACD and Stoch RSI cross down you can close the trade based on your own assessment. If a lower time frame EMA crosses down you can reduce your position by the % above. To keep things simple i usually only trade on the 4HR EMA. 3 confirmations to buy, 2 to sell.
Let me know if you like the more in depth article and any comments or questions or discussion is welcome. Hope this insight is useful to some.
Best Regards
Ecic
Kommentar:
Kommentar:
3 New considerations to take into our trade.
1.Our Two hour EMA(which we used for this trade) has given double confirmation to sell.
2.We might have just broken an rising wedge. I think we are due for some down side naturally without it.
3. Daily candle is a reversal candle
A bounce at a higher lower would be ideal for adding to your position. A bounce in the blue or orange box would be ideal.
Being conservative and also in the bear market, i know the price will dip in the near future. I just sold my 2% position at a 7% gain. A small and modest gain, but another to the W column. If you just opened a trade, and are sitting at a small loss(due to proper risk management and position size) there is no reason to sell at this point and take the loss. If you have already defined your risk and accepted it, simply use the upcoming dip to dollar cost average down your position.
Next we look to buy on the dip when the market reverses. I've already outlined the ideal zone id look for a reversal. Oncewe reverse up and if the 4hr EMA green line is still above the red(8,55) i will look to add a position size of 5%.
If we are in a wave structure this upcoming dip will be wave 2, and wave 3 should give good profits as well.
Best of luck
3 New considerations to take into our trade.
1.Our Two hour EMA(which we used for this trade) has given double confirmation to sell.
2.We might have just broken an rising wedge. I think we are due for some down side naturally without it.
3. Daily candle is a reversal candle
A bounce at a higher lower would be ideal for adding to your position. A bounce in the blue or orange box would be ideal.
Being conservative and also in the bear market, i know the price will dip in the near future. I just sold my 2% position at a 7% gain. A small and modest gain, but another to the W column. If you just opened a trade, and are sitting at a small loss(due to proper risk management and position size) there is no reason to sell at this point and take the loss. If you have already defined your risk and accepted it, simply use the upcoming dip to dollar cost average down your position.
Next we look to buy on the dip when the market reverses. I've already outlined the ideal zone id look for a reversal. Oncewe reverse up and if the 4hr EMA green line is still above the red(8,55) i will look to add a position size of 5%.
If we are in a wave structure this upcoming dip will be wave 2, and wave 3 should give good profits as well.
Best of luck
Trade wurde manuell geschlossen:
Additionally seems we got rejected by the 200D SMA which has formed this reversal Daily candle with 1.5 hours to go. The Death cross between the 50 and 200 seems Imminent now and we will not have enough momentum to reverse its crossing.
The bear possibilities have quickly piled up and reversed the odds. Its important to stay flexible in our outlook, while keeping risk low. I will keep a close watch on the upcoming action in the next few days and see if we produce a higher or lower low.
Additionally seems we got rejected by the 200D SMA which has formed this reversal Daily candle with 1.5 hours to go. The Death cross between the 50 and 200 seems Imminent now and we will not have enough momentum to reverse its crossing.
The bear possibilities have quickly piled up and reversed the odds. Its important to stay flexible in our outlook, while keeping risk low. I will keep a close watch on the upcoming action in the next few days and see if we produce a higher or lower low.
Kommentar:
We are still in the process of finding the low imo. 2 green 4 hour candles would be a good sign that the low is in. Daily and weekly frames are looking quite bad, and id be surprised if the 4hr EMA didn't cross down. This would limit our position size, which is okay. Patience pays dividends, now is not the time to rush to conclusions and try to outsmart the market.
We are still in the process of finding the low imo. 2 green 4 hour candles would be a good sign that the low is in. Daily and weekly frames are looking quite bad, and id be surprised if the 4hr EMA didn't cross down. This would limit our position size, which is okay. Patience pays dividends, now is not the time to rush to conclusions and try to outsmart the market.
Kommentar:
as expected the 4hr EMA crossed down
as expected the 4hr EMA crossed down
Trade ist aktiv:
1% at 8434
1% at 8915
Looking to add 2% after new high
1% at 8915
Looking to add 2% after new high
