Looking at a very long term analysis of Bitcoin we can see that it still follows the trend line formed by the 2017 rally has still held to this day, in fact it is what we bounced off at the 5.9k dip. This indicates we have strong support on this trend line and if it can continue to hold long term we will see 100k by June 2017. That is a big IF and if the 2017 trend line cannot hold then the next one we can form support/bounce off is the 2015 rally trend line which will reach 100k by August 2022. If this trend line fails then your guess is as good as mine but I am very confident we will follow one of these trend lines.
Elliot wave analysis:
The super cycle wave count for BTC is quite nice with easily identifiable waves and please note I am using log scale as this works best with higher degree wave cycles. The question at the moment is have we commenced wave 5 yet or are we still in wave 4? One of the guidelines for Elliot wave theory is that if wave 2 retraces a lot then wave 4 will not retrace as much. Considering wave 2 we retraced 85% compared to my current wave 4 prediction at 65% I'd say this follows the guideline nicely and it is good to note the guidelines usually hold true more so in larger wave cycles. So now that we have likely commenced wave 5 I believe it MUST take us to the 100k mark otherwise the 2017 trend line will likely fail and the May 2019 target is off the table. Wave 5's end will signal a massive correction likely worse than the one we just experienced and a long winded bear market will ensue so I believe we will test the 2015 trend line on that correction. When that day is is anyone's guess but if the 2015 trend line holds throughout the correction we will see 100k again (or for the first time) in 2022.
These are simply trajectories of trends, I am not predicting or calling anything.
Thoughts and comments are appreciated
Elliot wave analysis:
The super cycle wave count for BTC is quite nice with easily identifiable waves and please note I am using log scale as this works best with higher degree wave cycles. The question at the moment is have we commenced wave 5 yet or are we still in wave 4? One of the guidelines for Elliot wave theory is that if wave 2 retraces a lot then wave 4 will not retrace as much. Considering wave 2 we retraced 85% compared to my current wave 4 prediction at 65% I'd say this follows the guideline nicely and it is good to note the guidelines usually hold true more so in larger wave cycles. So now that we have likely commenced wave 5 I believe it MUST take us to the 100k mark otherwise the 2017 trend line will likely fail and the May 2019 target is off the table. Wave 5's end will signal a massive correction likely worse than the one we just experienced and a long winded bear market will ensue so I believe we will test the 2015 trend line on that correction. When that day is is anyone's guess but if the 2015 trend line holds throughout the correction we will see 100k again (or for the first time) in 2022.
These are simply trajectories of trends, I am not predicting or calling anything.
Thoughts and comments are appreciated
