BTC - final downward push of this correction has started

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
I think it has already started, however price may toy around a little bit and move upwards more before falling.

I see three possible targets:
Moderate: around 8100
Extreme: around 6100
Insane (not on chart): Around 4900 - Wave 5 of Wave C would be 1.61 of Wave 3, and retracement of 0.61 would be reached from the upward push to 19500$.
Trade ist aktiv: If the wave 1 of correction has indeed started, 10500-10000 is a place to expect some rebound - wave 2.

Kommentar: Also keep in mind, that in this type of aggressive corrective structure, in Impulse waves, each consecutive motive wave (1-3-5) tends to be exponentially 'more brutal'. On base of Wave 1 we had on BTC from 17.12-22.12:

Wave 1: -1770$, 15h
Wave 3: -3450$, 23h
Wave 5: -5420$, 28h - which was 30% of value of BTC at the time
Kommentar: It appears we are in wave 2 now. Targets are following:
1) Moderate - 12000-12200
2) Extreme - 12600

After that we begin powerful wave 3 downwards.

Kommentar: Well, correction was very shallow - it ended at 11900 instead of expected 12000-12200 level.

Target for this wave should be around 9100.
Kommentar: We had very nice retracament which lasted 2 days. Now we should go straight for the blood - target 9100.
Kommentar: @11372 - 24.01 12:38 UTC
It seems like our correction has one more leg to develop. Point of reversal should be: 11900 or 12300.
Kommentar: @10354 - 26.01 09.54 UTC
Finally, this boring period of consolidation has probably ended. Closest small rebound should be now at 10350 or a bit later, at 10350. Possible point of ending your short position or wait for reversal to re-enter.
We have now started the way downward, bigger target for now: 9200-9000
Kommentar: Well, if you are shorting prepare your wallets to burst with $$$. Take profit:
(1) 9000 - smaller wave reversal
(2) 7200 - bigger wave reversal
Kommentar: @9108 01.02.2018 18:30 UTC

I think we have very nice point to end your shorts or do rebuy here, if you are adventurous. I'll post final targets for this correction when markets moves a bit.
Kommentar: @8610 07:11 UTC 02.02.2018

Okay guys, prepare to end your sells or rebuys, the target should be 8000-7600, for some bigger wave correction.

Have in mind, that this part of correction is sharper than I have expected it to be, always wait for CONFIRMATION for ending your sells/rebuys. Candlesticks or divergencies are good point confirmation mechanisms.
Kommentar: @8643 09:11 UTC 03.02.2018

In response to Artmen007 message, I thought that I would share with everybody:

"Artmen007: You were totally right in everything.

I want to ask did correction? it could be that we get close to 10,000 again and then another stronger wave dump in the area 6500-7200?"

Right now, it is hard to predict, but we still have very very bearish sentiment. As for me, the most probable option is:
1) Right now, we will have some small consolidation, so price goes sideways/slightly up.
2) After that, we may be heading very low - to around 5000. Watch out, because the panic sell will be very fast, if you want to catch the bottom.
3) After that, we should get some big bullish reversal FOR A FEW THOUSANDS UP.
Trade ist aktiv: Okay guys, in relation to previous message, I will try to prepare you for what I think is comming to us. Last time we were at the same spot on 22.12.2017, the last wave of correction looked like that:

So plan for action would be:
1) Aggressive - wait to the fall to begin, and buy your BTC at 5000-5400$. It is risky tactic, but there is 60-130% profit to be made over time.
2) Safe - wait for the price to stabilize after the fall and buy your BTC for some short-mid term hold.
3) DO NOT HOLD LONG TERM. We will not reach new ATHs in near future. It will happen, but BTC will still fall more after this 5k~ fall and rebound.
Kommentar: Oh, and time is very tricky to predict in the state of market we are now, but we could see the bottom at around 5k~ on 06 Feb @ 8:00 UTC or 07 Feb @ 10 UTC. Do not take it as written in stone, it is just possiblity.
Kommentar: @9337 14:33 UTC 03.02.2018

This time the top of the correction should be around 10100. After that we sail downwards.
Kommentar: @8061 20:12 UTC 04.02.2018

Ok guys, it seems that this is it. This wave down looks very much like impulse. Right now we will have short consolidation, then we go to the cleaners.

FINAL TARGETS: 5300-4500.
Kommentar: @86799 19:31 UTC 05.02.2018
Ok guys, I KNOW that I already said it - but, THIS IS IT. Situation seems a bit more dire than I have expected.

There is also slight possibility, that we could go even to 3000, so if you plan a rebuy, you should wait - if it passes 4000 - it will turn around at 3000.

AFTER the fall, we will get BIG rebound. I mean B.I.G. When we will stabilize at the bottom, I will post the correction targets, but there is BIG chance for 100%+ if you buy at the bottom.

HOWEVER, HOWEVER, this is not the last bottom of the BTC, we will go lower, but it will take time. So if you plan for buying at the bottom to hold - think again, and after that - DON'T.
Kommentar: @8190 17:30 UTC 07.02.2018

Since I am getting private messages about validity of 4k target 'Is that it?'. If you are asking this type of question 'Is that it?' then it is not it, often in this type of market movements when it ends - you will think that it will go to 0 - you see blood on the streets. The articles on the web will write about 'apocalypse'.

Structure looks very, very bearish. We might have reached the top of this corrective movement or we might move to around 9000.

Target: 4300, if it passes 4000 it might go to 3000.

Kommentar: @9700 13:20 UTC 15.02.2018
This market looks like it starts to rebound. If this correction right now will be shallow, we should be going upwards - first target 11700.
Kommentar: @9700 13:26 UTC 15.02.2018

I would still advise agains buying into bitcoin now. Although there is some volume, the market structure looks very corrective - just look at the time it took bitcoin to reach this 9500~ levels. I think that it can go 10500 and even 11700 and then we will see how it will react upon reaching this level.

If you want to buy - try to keep your SL tight.
Kommentar: @10700 16:31 UTC 17.02.2018

Keep your eyes peeled for a short. We will soon have reversal at around 11000-11200, possibly 11700 (low probability). During the reversal we will be able to tell - if we go down to 4K~ or we go up higher and mark the target for the upward move.
Kommentar: @10123 10:00 UTC 18.02.2018

Well, I called it. Just like clockwork, BTC had reversal at 11200. There are now three possibilities of development, so let's wait for the market to sort it out.
Kommentar: @10363 10:23 UTC 18.02.2018

Ok, here are three scenarios that I think are possible:

1) BULLISH: Bitcoin falls to 9600 and then continues upwards (or sideways, then upwards).
2) BULLISH: Bitcoin falls to around 8100 and then continues upwards, to around 14000. Going below around 7500$ invalidates this - we will have scenario 3.
3) BEARISH: Bitcoin starts to fall to around 4100$. Going above 11200 invalidates this and we will have scenario 2 (or 1).
Kommentar: So right now, good ideas would be:

SHORTER TERM (up to two days)
1) Short till 9600 after this small rebound.
2) Wait for 9600 and rebound there, and if your guts tell you that we go lower, short till 8100.

3) Wait for BTC to breach 11300 and go long till 14000.
4) Wait for BTC to breach 7500 and go short till 4300.
Not bad not bad @thewhitefox I agree on your $10400 then back down. Well done again
+1 Antworten
It looks like forming bearish flag in daily chart. Target 6800 maybe.
I hope you come back soon :)
@HudaK, I am here, no worries. But I stopped trading crypto for now and moved my funds to forex, so naturally, I cannot devote so much time to analysis as before. But if you have any questions, feel free to ask. Right now I think we are:

(I think there is also second, but smaller possiblity: waves a and b from correction, are still part of the impulse and Wave C is actually Wave A, it would imply that BTC will retrace to 10400 before moving down. However, what I posted here on the picture is much more likely)

Actually, I have been bearish since I saw second failure to break 11700. You should have wrote comment back then. ;)
+1 Antworten
HudaK thewhitefox
@thewhitefox, Thank you very much. I wish we will see very soon.
Now This is a very difficult situation for me. Twice rebounded from 8400 I short BTC from 10200. Now the price returned to 9000 I do not dare to buy yet. What are the chances of going again lower?
thewhitefox Artmen007
@Artmen007, Well, so you have nice profit by now. If I were you, I would put stop loss at 9500, where you still get nice profit. Right now I think it goes down to 8000, where it will have stronger rebound. If you want to play safe, finish your order at 8200. if you are willing to risk more, wait for the development of situation and finish your short order when below 8200, when you will see RSI divergence at 15 minute chart. However, I am 80% sure that it will rebound at 8100-7900.

Therefore, I would: put SL at 9500 and now wait until ~8200 and finish order manually there, if you can watch the charts, or just set TP at 8300.
+1 Antworten
Artmen007 thewhitefox
@thewhitefox, Thanks.
thewhitefox Artmen007
@Artmen007, From my experience, it is much better to finish at small profit and miss the chance, rather than lose money. There are always possibilities, but one you lose money it's gone for good. :)
+1 Antworten
Hey. Tell me what do you think about BTC now? like 2 the top and below the 10,000 or the bulls will prevail?
thewhitefox Artmen007
@Artmen007, Hey, I'm not updating because BTC/crypto is not very profitable market anymore and I've moved to other assets now, and I do not have time to closely follow crypto. That being said I now see two possible options:

1) Crash to 5k was wave A, and now we are on the rise to around 13-15k, in three waves A-B-C. Wave A is finished at around 12k, now we are in wave B - which is flat composed of Waves ABC. We are now in the Wave C, of this flat. It will go to around 8300-7500. Then we go UP to 13-15k and then we crash very low.
2) Crash to 5k was wave A, return to 12k was Wave B, now we have begin 5 waves of Wave C, which will crash to around 2k.

Both of those options are still possible.
+1 Antworten
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