BTC/USD Head and Shoulders on the 4 hours chart?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Position: Leaning Bearish

BTC             is having a very interesting development. The worry has been if this is going to continue down with the trend. BTC             has hit a minor resistance point and a major trend line that has it failing to break upwards. Now, we are seeing a small head and shoulders pattern on the 4 hour chart. This could be bad news for BTC             .

My analysis on the chart is a BIG IF. IF the head and shoulders is ratified and breaks this 7.9k-8k area, we are going to see it push down. If the 6k area breaks, we could see it go down to the 3.5k range. this thing has been throwing off signals that it's starting to bottom, but it hasn't done anything to convince me yet that it actually HAS bottomed. I would look for it to form a double bottom at that 6k low, or a new bottom down further in the 3.5-5k area. Technically speaking, the ABCD pattern calls for a bottom down at 3.6k, will we get that low? I don't know. We should get a strong bounce off of that 6k area but the real question will be if that is the bottom, or just a dead cat bounce and we start heading lower. Best way to play this one is to stagger your orders down and use a martingale strategy to enter.

Again, this is a big IF. If this support line collapses, only then will we need to worry about it going down further. If this area holds, it could start moving up to break that trend line and continue higher.

Happy Trading,
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