BTCUSD update: Price has pushed to 8020 without any bearish hesitation on the larger time frames in the 6950 to 7350 resistance zone. What happened to the C Wave that I have been writing about?
If you look at my previous BTC report, I specifically explained that B Waves are TRICKY. I also explained that price had to break back below the 6500 area in order to confirm that a C wave was in play, otherwise the market is likely going higher.
The current price structure may still be a B Wave, but the factors that support that argument are much fewer in number. The bearish factors that can lead to a C Wave are the potential double top (8040 is not much higher than 7899). And also the failed breakout zone which price can actually go as high as 8500 and sell off hard from there. Why 8500? The range between 7899 and 8500 is an extension zone that is proportionate relative to the 5400 low. When failed breakouts occur, they are more likely to occur within this zone. If price pushes beyond 8500, then that is a sign of strength and signals higher prices to come.
There are NO bearish reversal structures or support breaks to justify shorts at the MOMENT. The 7k level is the trend support (.382 of bullish structure from 5400 low.) There are NO bearish reversal candles or larger time frame triggers that signal selling. At the moment there is a mini consolidation that is unfolding which usually leads to higher prices since these are trend continuation patterns.
As far as the C Wave, price must break below 7k in order to prove that a selling wave is in progress. Shorting before this happens (IF it happens) especially without any larger time frame structure is a low probability trade. An example of structure is the recent double top formation that occurred at the 7899 high (a week and a half ago). I do not consider this new high part of a triple top until there is proof of a reversal. Again there is nothing.
Also something to keep in mind, markets that are weak test resistance and often reject it quickly. If the current situation was a triple top, price should be rejecting the 7900 level and instead it is consolidating on it. That is not a sign of coming weakness.
I keep emphasizing that being flexible is key in fast markets like this. On the short time horizon, there is no time for opinions. Is it possible that the BTC minors and developer community are using their pull to manipulate this market? Sure, so even more reason to be flexible and recognize what the market is doing NOW and if there are any signs that it wants to reverse. Steve Spencer (The S of SMB Capital), my former boss and world class trader still says, "Be in the present, be flexible". This is an absolute must for short term speculation.
In summary, this market is consolidating at a potential peak which can be taken as a sign of strength. Is it risky to get long if it breaks higher? Absolutely, especially on larger time horizon strategies like swing trading. "This market is always risky" you say, but it is riskier at the moment because it is flirting with all time highs, not a higher low which is where the reward/risk is favorable for swing trades. Wave counts work until they don't, just like everything else in TA. Our job as price action traders is to uncover the clues available now and adjust to changes as the market evolves. Listening to the market is an essential skill for short term trading, while imposing your own ideas upon it will give you a completely random result, but our own natural bias enjoys thinking we were "right". Good trades come from good plans, and flexible mindsets.
I had my fib target at $8,080. In my opinion, your B wave was actually wave 5. The correction is now.
Doc-al-Citadel
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cashening dot watch ;-)
UnknownUnicorn981629
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Amazing advice that I can tell is influenced by years of experience. “Good trades come from good plans, and flexible mindsets.”
Perfectly said.
Sixboost
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Something I have mentioned elsewhere that may tie in with all this Marc, no doubt you have heard by now about Bitfinex printing tether and using it to recover the market and keep pushing it higher. If this is in fact true, it explains why every logical notion the market will correct, and it doesn't, is taking place. I have watched primarily BTC only for months now, learnjbg to be good at understanding one market before taking on others, and it still baffles me. Like the near 50% gain in 4 days this week from $5400 to $8000? There was only 6 red 4hr candles in 24.
Suffice to say the increase is becoming unhealthy and too fast, and if it continues will become parabolic, then we will end up playing who wants to catch the falling knife.... Here's hoping the spotlight being on Bitfinex stops them printing tether and we get a healthy and much needed correction so BTC can continue on its merry way upwards again.
Owcheew8
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@Sixboost, after finex pops btc is going back to 1k.
mk_trader
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@MarcPMarkets Great text, one of the best in past few days that I have read in BTC! I myself currently do not have clue what to do with this situation. On 1-day charts, situation is pretty clear, on the other hand, latest situation developed in last 5-10 days, impossible to use 1D charts only. As I see it, there is great hesitation, nobody is buying in at new ATH. Then again, any "longer" consolidation for BTC is somewhat peculiar situation, because BTC is always in some kind of move.
fernx
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Thank you for your continuing insight and passing along your expertise and educated views. I am learning a lot and making a few dollars along the way. Much appreciated.
filipnr1
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Bearish signal is that BCH is more profitable to mine for more than 24h. fork.lol/
CodyJournell
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@filipnr1, but the majority of buyers don't even know what mining means
would love to hear your feedback on this. tks