Here we can see a clear that BTC broke during the 6k low and has now popped back into the channel.. while most see this as positive I see it as a failed pattern and is now irrelevant.
So where do we go from here?
To me it looks like BTC can go as high as that 11k area measured move off the iH&S but what comes next is incredibly concerning for me. It looks very likely that BTC will fail there and if it does convincingly then I would actually put another lower low back on the table of possibilities.
What else am I watching?
Finex longs vs shorts is so heavily in favor of the longs that I have to wonder if theres anyone left to actually buy. Further, as finex margin funding dries up and rates go higher retail investors will have to compete against the clock to make profitable positions.. if price is unable to sustain momentum then its VERY likely that we see a scenario where longs slowly get liquidated and it becomes a snowballing effect of giant momentum to the downside.
Also, because of the nature of the fib levels we're currently playing under I would expect that most algo traders will be selling all major resistance areas with force until we clear that 13k area. Until then it is a massive uphill battle for bulls to truly turn the trend around.
So while Bulls have temporary control, or it would seem, I see some serious areas of concern that could lead us to another lower low.
Of course, this is all invalidated if BTC can push through that 11k area to 13k then bulls will have gained macro momentum and likely lead us to former ATH and probably new ones as well.
Not financial advice.