Recently, Bitcoin broke above the narrow range we showed in previous articles. Subsequently, it gained bullish momentum, rising to $21 456. Interestingly, the cryptocurrency paused its climb slightly below the resistance at $21 473. If Bitcoin breaks above this level, it will further bolster the bullish case in the short term. However, the inability to break above the resistance might suggest a faltering bullish momentum. Therefore, we will pay close attention to volume levels. To support a bullish case, we want to see a pick-up in volume accompanying a (further) price increase. Contrarily, to support a bearish case, we want to see low volume near high price tags (and then, ideally, a pick-up in volume accompanying a price drop).
Overall, the price of Bitcoin is rising too quickly (and too high), which is more reminiscent of the FOMO (fear of missing out) behavior among market participants rather than a genuine primary trend reversal. Due to that, we are very cautious about this recent move and think it is still too premature to call the market bottom. We expect the U.S. earnings season to reveal more underlying economic problems and enforce the notion of the market progressing deeper into recession. As the cryptocurrency market stays highly correlated to the stock market, we expect this to weigh on it down the road. Accordingly, we maintain our price targets for Bitcoin at $15 000 and $13 000 (though, in the short-term, we do not rule out continuation higher).
Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. Bullish volume accompanying the price rise can be seen on a decline, which is worrisome.
Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish
Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the hourly chart of BTCUSD. Volume can be seen dropping near high price tags, casting a sign of weakness. However, low liquidity may allow for volatile movement to either side.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Trade ist aktiv
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BTCUSD spiked above the resistance. However, then it dropped back below it in the next minute. This flashes a warning sign.
Thanks a lot again for this great post. I have been waiting for this. Many are bullish, I am not. Recently especially currently the long position proportion is getting thicker, it could be the market makers are preparing for a major liquidation toward the long positions, there could be a big long squeeze sooner or later. RSI is testing the 90 zone, it turns into a strong resistance before the pullback occurres. It has occurred several times before and whenever the RSI on the daily TF reached this level of 90, the price then showed us a major pullback first to liquidate the long positions.
Tradersweekly
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@AngelaCat, Thank you as well for your continuous support. You are awesome!
@AngelaCat, perhaps you are right, perhaps we all suffer from self fullfilling proficy?
simplejoe1
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doesn't rally seem artificial?, ie a manipulation. it happened during holiday weekend when liquidity was thin and was ridiculously sharp and volume not so big
Tradersweekly
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@simplejoe1, Very good point. It definitely does not look healthy.