Bitcoin - The Bearish Continuation Scenario

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar

After bitcoin topped off at 5000 it made a quick deep dive to 3000 (even going below slightly) this all happened in approximately 13 days. The main reason for this is that bitcoin has completed three waves up and was ready for a potential correction but the china news about banning exchanges let it plunge at rapid speed. The bearish news of china is still acting, bulls are fighting hard against it but this price correction cuts pretty deep in future uptrend and complete recovery. My feeling says this is the bulltrap (4080-4150USD) and there will be one more wave of sellers wanting to get out. This will form a major ABC and then we consolidate in the lower part ranging from 3000 to 3600 to clear up completely what the future politcal (China volume migration) and technical (november harfork SegWit2x) direction is.

4080 is also the top of the trend channel and it's advised to close a long at this point because pullback is likely. Also this could turn in a big Head and Shoulders pattern which is indicated in the chart.

The bull versus bear fight will be though, good luck and happy trading!

Kommentar: 2H Chart close-up
Trade ist aktiv: Target zone of 4080-4100 Reached. Shorting active.
Kommentar: Short closed
Kommentar: Waiting for a clear break upward or downward. We are still in the red triangle and I expect price to consolidate slowly upwards. Eventually when range gets narrow, if break down short otherwise potential long is possible.
Kommentar: Currently we are waiting for this structure to make a clear move. Hourly MACD says down and so does wave counting.
Kommentar: So this is somewhat experimental, the triangle ends at 4200 then we have fibs spirals giving us two more points of breakdown, 3978 and 4117.
Kommentar: What a great swing all the way from 4150! I should try to seek support again where it broke, but the general downtrend should slowly go down. Still some cloud support present.
Kommentar: Remember that good traders short or long the bottom or top. Shorting while a trend is already going lower or had several waves is risky but can sometimes work out well. Plan your entries and exits in advance!
Kommentar: Retest of Neckline at 4000
Kommentar: Update! Based on 1H MACD we can still expect a third wave up to 4200! Depending how strong the bulls are. We also got Ichimoku Cloud support so could be a turning point.
Kommentar: After we complete this trend I will post the final picture of how the fib spiral progressed so you guys can see it's impact.
Kommentar: Bulls are pushing us up to 4100-4200 and tomorrow evening I expect the dump.
Kommentar: The big short could have began!
Kommentar: Target point for now 3500 USD
Kommentar: Bitcoin could have one more attempt to 4200. The breakout of the wedge was not strong enough and widened the shape. The target from the fib spiral screenshot still holds. This would finally give us three clear waves and give us better confirmation to short while the raising wedge becomes narrow. Understand that no prediction follow 100% it's path and that we should be dynamic as traders.
Kommentar: Within 10 hours we should see a clear move upwards to 4200 or downward to 3800 (retesting bottom).
Trade ist aktiv: Some serious dump now
Kommentar: Target point on Fibs are 3671 and 3586 USD
Kommentar: Up we go again bounce time.
Kommentar: 3600 Incomming
Kommentar: We bounced at 3671 I think we go up or consolidate at this point.
Kommentar: Almost 230$ down move. Should retrace some before more down.
Kommentar: If we dont make lower lows, this should be the bottom and we should be heading up again in 15min
Kommentar: I'm not sure to continue updates on this chart or make a new one for smaller timeframe. Leave in the comments if you would like to get updates on this chart (if it's orderly) or create a new one?
Kommentar: 3730-3740 Target Point (TP)
Kommentar: I will make a new one then :)
Kommentar: Target point cancelled..
Order storniert: This chart has become invalid. My new chart still provides us with some key levels, even outside the broken downtrend.
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If I'm reading correctly,this should be a bull trap.
Looks like you call it end of the dump at that it? Am I misunderstood? Thank you. I will also watch your new post. The chart looks beautiful.
+1 Antworten
About how many days do you expect does the downtrend goes on until we have a real good buy opportunity for an long term investment and also for some other positions?
@kremsy, I think 3200 is a good long entry.
kremsy TheTrex
@TheTrex, Thanks a lot for this information, how many days about do you expect it will take to get there? Im just wondering as I fly in Holidays from 24. - 29. September
kremsy kremsy
@TheTrex, one last question, maybe you could give me an advice as more experienced Trader, I plan to invest 1500€ on long term (no trading), My Distribution looks follows: 50% BTC, 10% BCH, 10% ETH, 10% DASH, 10% XMR, 5% LTC and get a Nano Ledger S, would you suggest me to set all 750€ directly at the trend reversal (3200 or whatever we see) or just a small bit and wait for the rest?

Would be amazing if you could tell me your idea on this :).
What you think of opening a small short position at the current point? Too Late?
atbtc kremsy
@kremsy, better wait for a reversal confirmation and long. Less risk IMO
kremsy atbtc
@atbtc, Yeah I guess you right, was just thinking of catching some of my losses back with a short, but guess that is the wrong idea, better wait for the reversal and than get in :)
Please keep this one, this is a great timeframe, we are targeting the big picture not every $5 bounce, but hoping to be able to go down as low as possible, thanks for all your efforts.
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