Wave D peaked nice near the expected resistance-area and now a nice little S/H/S top confirms that wave E is developing.
The ideal target for this E-wave is seen at 3,655, but be aware that triangle E-waves can be sub-normal and complete the triangle consolidation prematurely. Once this wave 4 triangle is complete a strong rally is expected in wave 5.
A Bitcoin seems to have a tendency to extend its fifth wave rallies, that could call for a rally all the way to 9,150, before topping.
Based on what you drew the lower retrace trend line?
EWS
⋅
@filipnr1, I fully understand your question, but to explain, we will have to look back a bit.
Bitcoin/USD has a clear tendency to build triangles in the fourth wave position, so my preferred count at the end of wave 3 was that a triangle most likely would be building. As you can see, this triangle isn't the nice symmetric kind, but the more difficult running kind. However, the individual zig-zag's within the triangle has behaved as one would expected.
When one of the individual legs within the triangle is made up by a double zig-zag, there is a tendency for the following leg to complete near the termination of the X-wave. If my count is correct for wave D, then wave E should move close to 3,514 before completing. This is very close to the 38.2% corrective target of wave D.
At this point, I don't know if the slope of the retrace line is correct, but it gives me an idea where wave E could complete.
What, if a clear break below 3,514 is seen, you might ask? If, that happens. the triangle structure then will change and be extended in time. Instead of the decline from 4,453 being the E-wave, I would count it as the C-wave of the triangle. if this happen, then the much more common symmetric triangle likely will be unfolding and wave topped at 4,980 higher and the decline to 2,972 wave A the rally to 4,453 was wave B.