I hope that many of you have been able to limit your losses or perhaps have made a profit this night. In order to prevent the same situation for the first group in the future, I post a number of important rules here. Use it to your advantage.
If you have read my previous ideas, then you will have seen that I warned of a greater correction. We saw this correction last night. (European time) It has taken a long time before we can finally see a normal correction in this kind of big increases. Some people called it a crash or a total collapse. I call it healthy correction, not more than that.
Why? - On 8 October the price of 1 bitcoin was $ 4000, -. This week a bitcoin was worth almost $ 20,000. - A strong increase is always accompanied by a strong correction. - In a normal stock or currency market, you could indeed have called this a crash. Do not forget that volatility and increases on a normal market are much lower. So, in percentage this was a normal correction. After the extreme increase. - The crypto market is not a normal market, so it takes into account high rises, but occasionally large falls. Remember: Shareholders are often happy with a dividend of 3% and a small price increase per year!
In this market, we often earn 50% or 100% in a day!
How did I prepare for this correction: - As I described in my Litecoin idea, I had a cash position of 39% because I expected a large correction in this cryptomarket. - I did my homework for the decline and had already signed the long-term trend channel. - As soon as we broke from the previous trend channel, (previous btc idea) I placed purchase orders at different levels. A small one at 16400 and a large one at 15700. While I slept, 2 purchase orders were made. I have been able to put a large position on almost the bottom. Unfortanately it didn't reached my largest order at 13500. (I was hoping for a quick spike to touch this level)
When I woke up and I looked at what had happened, I earned money, while many people lost money and panicked and I slept well.
What I want to say with this: - Trading is not always rocket science. Sometimes, it is indeed difficult, to make money in a certain market. But sometimes it is also quite simple! - Switch off your emotions and keep looking at what is happening. - Learn from these experiences. Recognize the situation next time, because they will definitely come. (In the past I also lost money in similar situations on the stock market and foreign exchange market.) I give you this information for free, I paid for it in the past. - After this correction, we are trading in a much healthier bitcoin market again, and this will make the market more predictable for the coming months. That is why I put the risk for this idea very low/ low.
Buy: at the bottom of the channel.
Sell: At the top of the channel.
For the short term: The dotted line is resistance. (Low)
For the long term: The bottom channel line is resistance. (Very low)
Note: In most cases I use more indicators to post this idea. I'll show you only the most important ones, to keep charts clear.
I receive messages that you appreciate my ideas. I'm not happy that I couldn't update you with this before the decline, because I can only post one chart at a time. This has made me decide to upgrade my account this week, so that I can provide you with better information.
I sometimes react slowly in connection with a study and my company. Do not forget that I appreciate your questions and feedback and that I will always do my best to respond as quickly as possible.
Please, follow and like for more trading ideas.
Questions? Feel free to ask and your feedback is welcome.
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Short term idea closed.
Possible re-test of support zone. This is a very strong resistance zone. Three resistances are coming together here. (18ma, hourly fibo and the trendchannel.) So excelent chances to buy, If these supports break, our next supports are 14233 and 12919. So, excelent chances to buy.
SL: 15300
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Something went wrong when placing the chart. See previous update for an explanation of the chart.
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A close of a candle on the daily below the trend channel means that we are gonna trade in a new channel. 14233 is our first resistance then. 12919 is a strong resistance.
With all due respect, you use coinbase to show trend lines, an exchange with the most extreme spike's (up to 20K 2 weeks ago, and a spike down to 14K last night). You could say that Coinbase traders know more than the other exchanges, because eventually BTC went to 20K. But than you could say the same the other way around, BTC will still drop to 14K :).
Other thing, i have read what you have said, your absolutely right about turning off your emotions, that's the most difficult aspec of trading. But what i don't like about your story (and that's purly my opinion, nothing more than that), it's all based on that it's a guarantee that BTC will continue to go up long term (long term in crypto is months, just like you say the crypto market is different than the normal markets, i totally agree). I don't share that opinion (about crypto's in general) and i am probably not the only one in the world. What i am trying to say is, you make it sound like it's a guarantee that after every correction of 20% or even 40% or more, it WILL continue up. I think that's a dangerous assumption. One could say the same for the stock market the last 5 or 10 years, but history shows that everyting comes to an end, even if some things seem to have unlimited potential. Your from Holland right? Me to :)
For the rest, keep up the good work :)
Trades999
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@botje11, You are right about the fact that after a correction we have no guarantee that we will then go up again. What I am trying to say with this article is that this is a healthy correction in a bull market. And at the moment we are still trading in a bullish market. There are no signs yet, that the market will move the other way in the medium-long term. I only see these signals when it closes on the daily graph under 1919. When I see this kind of signals, I will report this here. What I do is just follow the rules, and I also agree with you that everything comes to an end. Although I am absolutely of the opinion that the crypto market will grow rapidly next year. But I do have my doubts whether this also applies to bitcoin and some other coins. Indeed, Dutch, good to see that there are more hanging around here;) Thanks for your feedback and happy trading! :)
botje11
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@jelmerrr,
Untill now this is still healthy correction, bt the last few hours it is starting to look less healthy. And some important things have changed in comparence to the 5K, 8K,11K and 17K tops. I have mentioned this in my analyses. Following rules is the best way to trade, i agree. You just made it sound a bit to easy that's all actually :). In your midnight sleep for example where you had put in your buy orders and extreme news comes out (like a big exchange got hacked again) and even your new low buys could get big losses. I do understand what you are trying to teach! You mean keep a cool head, keep looking at what the chart is teling, have a helicopter view when needed, and don't get scared of the fast and sometimes deep drops the bitcoin makes! The drops are always very scary, so when your not in the right state of mind, one could make some very bad decisions. What can i say, it's good to have different views :). I just see an extreme hype that's still on full throttle, so it's still very strong! A month ago i thought this hype would go on for smonths, maybe even a year (you can read it in my analyses about a month ago), but the speed it got the last few weeks, especially the Alt coins, it's just not sustainable. But that's my view :) I do have to admitt, what the entire crypto market did the last month, i would have never guessed it was even possible.
The best luck to you too.
maddeneyevan
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thanks for your analysis, i hope we won't see btc struggle to come back up, lots of people are moving to bch from btc, what can u say about this? thanks
Trades999
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@maddeneyevan, You're welcome. You are right that many people are moving to BCH. I think there are three reasons for the sharp decline.: CEO of Bitcoin.com said that he has sold all his bitcoins and moved it to BCH, Segwit2x has been revived and there was a hack of 4000 bitcoins in South Korea. If I am honest, I also believe more in BCH than Bitcoin. Why? The transaction costs of Bitcoin are high and it does not go fast enough. For bitcoincash, these problems have been partly improved, but not solved. But without improvements, Bitcoin Cash also runs into these problems, this is already happening. That is why I do not see Bitcoin Cash as an ideal currency for the future. However, I am convinced that the crypto market will continue to grow and that another currency will eventually become the largest. It could be that Bitcoin will continue to serve as a safe haven in the future, such as gold or something like that. If this does not happen, I do not see bitcoin as a means of payment in the long term, but that is my opinion. ;)
rob2093124
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Thanks for the info and tips! I"ll be looking out for your updates and ideas.
Other thing, i have read what you have said, your absolutely right about turning off your emotions, that's the most difficult aspec of trading. But what i don't like about your story (and that's purly my opinion, nothing more than that), it's all based on that it's a guarantee that BTC will continue to go up long term (long term in crypto is months, just like you say the crypto market is different than the normal markets, i totally agree). I don't share that opinion (about crypto's in general) and i am probably not the only one in the world. What i am trying to say is, you make it sound like it's a guarantee that after every correction of 20% or even 40% or more, it WILL continue up. I think that's a dangerous assumption. One could say the same for the stock market the last 5 or 10 years, but history shows that everyting comes to an end, even if some things seem to have unlimited potential. Your from Holland right? Me to :)
For the rest, keep up the good work :)