The more likely scenario will be a / dragon reversal that could touch the previous .618x ($14.4k). This is more likely because the next date for xbt future settlement is quite far away, so the market wouldn't be scared of nothing.
Still, b/c the Chinese New Year (also Korean) is very close, we shouldn't expect much upswing at the moment. I would in fact bet that around mid-Feb there'll be a "tremendous" pump b/c the are fun not only in shorting bitcoin .
Right now, I sense that small investors are prepared for breakout, but the market makers are looking to have their holidays after making 1000x in the last year.
In sum, most likely -> 14k -> 12k -> more sideways -> 15k.
Btw, we're looking at a new market cycle now. I'd say we're at the end of Wave C.
This suggests that we'll trade sideways for longer. It's indeed possible to have a crash under 10k.
When bad news have died out ---> reversal.