Scenario: 1. The 2014-2017 cycle repeats itself from 2018-2022. 2. Market will stay bearish until 2019 and will start to turn bullish again in 2020. 3. Prior to the halving event in June 2020, there will be a lot of buying volume. 4. After the halving event, the price will cool down and will lose momentum. 5. A few months after the halving event, the price will start to gain rapidly again. 6. In 2021 and 2022 the price will test the old ATH and will set new ATHs, while going parabolic again.
@DukeDinhd6, Halving expectation starts 6-9 months before actual event. So people will dump 6-9 months in advance of actual event. Markets are based on expectations 6-9 months in advance.
devilninja777
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You pick the 2014-2017 cycle but that was an anomaly, typical bear markets last less than a year. BTC is more engraved in society and public perception / hype / demand is on another level. We should see ATH this year
prep16505
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One of the best charts I've seen because it shows a great understanding of how halving has an effect on the price. It's no coincidence the rise this year looks very similar to the one in 2013. I went back and read some predictions made back in 2015-2016 that said halving would increase the price to a peak of around $10,000-$12,000. I think this were based on the $100 to $1100 rise of 2013. They predicted $1,000 to $11,000 and we overshot that based on greed mania of everyone buying in near the top thinking they were going to double or triple their money in no time. But just like in 2013 we went from $1,000 all the way back down to $100 so this time it might go as low as say $20,000 to $2,000. Almost all will sell at a loss and a few brave souls will hold and might earn a great return if your chart plays out and bitcoin continues on like it has in the past.
So if you don't mind based on this I'll expand on your #6 and say we will go parabolic again from an all time high of near $20,000 to $200,000 conservatively. But I'm sure at that point the greed will be much more wide spread and could easily go much higher. Maybe $1 million is a possibility on the next run up.
bagsangceon
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OTL
mortonpeak
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thumbs up to any chart predicting lots of down turns and bursts upward -- time to shift toward loving the crashes in BTC, not the surges @WhaleFund