Schizophrenic Bitcoin Mood Swings To Upside! (BTC) Neat Pattern!

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Hi friends! I hope you are all doing well. Let's take a look at Bitcoin! Looking at the four hour BTC chart, you'll probably notice things look slightly different. Unfortunately, I had to restart my computer, and I lost my all of my charts in the process, so I had to redo them. They're all pretty much the same, so the old analyses should still be comparable to the new charts.

Here on BTC , we can see that we had a break below the "heavy resistance" level (at the 50% retrace) then BTC formed a series of bear flags, inside of a symmetrical triangle, and then miraculously broke to the upside of the triangle. We can see now, that BTC has turned lower and is testing the 50 EMA (in orange) for support, after breaking above it on the symmetrical triangle breakout. Whether or not the 50 holds as support, will be a critical indicator to watch going forward. I've drawn a pink downtrend channel on the BTC chart, to show you that we are still in a bear market correction. Make no mistake, until we break the top side of this pink downtrend channel , the bears will remain in control.

If you'll notice, there is a dotted center line, in the middle of the channel. I noticed that there seems to be a pattern, in the way that BTC has acted, after the center line of the channel is surpassed. At the beginning (left side) of the channel, you can see that when BTC broke above the center line, it hit the top of the channel. After that, it broke below the center line, then rallied back above it later, but failed to stay above. A little later, we can see that it rallied back above, and then reached the top of the channel again. Then, BTC fell back below the center line, and then failed to stay above it again. Now, we have just broken back above. So, is the pattern Top, fail, top, fail, top? It could be. As a professional trader, I look for obscure patterns and technical nuances that give me an edge on the market. This is a good example of a pattern that COULD repeat itself. To know for sure, we need to see how BTC behaves here at the 50 EMA . Remember, baby steps people. If BTC fails to hold the 50 EMA , and especially if it drops back below the center line of the channel, then obviously, the pattern is not repetitive. However, if we see a hold at the 50, and BTC turns back to the upside, after establishing the 50 EMA as new support, then it would certainly increase the probability that the pattern will come to fruition.

Looking at the MACD , we can see that there has been a small bullish divergence , as momentum made higher highs, while price made lower lows. It is a small addition to a slight, tiny little hint of bullishness. Don't, don't, DON'T FORGET, that we are in a huge downtrend channel . Until BTC gets above it, it will remain in a technical bear market correction. If the center line is broken, the repetitive pattern would be nullified. Each low made in the triangle could then act as support, with a larger support level at the 78.6% retrace, and then the bear flag target and the bottom of the channel. If we hold the 50 EMA , the 200 EMA (in purple,) the heavy resistance, and then the top of the channel, will be in play.

This has been your not-so-humble market wizard, droppin' knowledge like bombs in this place! Please follow, comment, like, and share on social media. Good luck trading everyone!

***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***

-MPC loves you-

@MagicPoopCannon , can you please tell what is the support line for BTC?
Does this bear flag have much left in it or we headed south! 50/100/200 converging down on top. RIP
Hi @MagicPoopCannon could you please provide us your opinion on the market risks of tether/bitfinex relationship and the artificial pump of BTC price. Do you put any weight on this? I'm only asking if there is a strategy you employ with news that could potentially have huge ramification in the markets plus technical analysis. What do you suggest we do with such news that has been circulating now for several months.
+12 Antworten
powderpc WolfpackCrypto
@bitcoinbobby, dude, this guy/gal has no interest in guiding you with fundamentals. If you follow Tom Lee ( @fundstrat ) on Twitter you will find a reputable authority and he shares my view that it's somewhat irrelevant what happens to Tether. Even if Tether gets shut down it will be a simple matter to move to some other asset-backed equivalent. And it would be pure suicide for any exchange not to honor the value of USDTs. Why in the world would an exchange essentially kill a multi-billion dollar valuation business by refusing to back the currency they use? Tether could definitely use more transparency and Bitfinex and others definitely come across as shady when they refuse to disclose exactly what they are doing in terms of liquidity management.

Here's the thing. Modern financial systems with fractional reserves essentially have nothing in the bank and rely entirely on central banks to balance out their need for cash on demand. Tether was audited to have $442 M previously in Sept (? not sure this is right) so we know they have a lot of cash and not just nothing. The question is whether or not they have EXACTLY what they are supposed to have and whether or not they've manipulated crypto prices by using their own Tethers in the open market. Given that only $2 B in USDT supposedly exists this amount is unlikely to have much of an impact on a ~$400 B market. What I don't really understand is how transparent Tether volume is overall, and this could be the crux here as Bitfinex could in theory have done a kind of "quantitative easing" where they bought a bunch of crypto to drive prices up and then sold back to USDT to make a profit. But in this scenario they can't exit their USDT and would need to buy back into crypto at a lower price in order to gain more crypto. Given that they just injected a bunch of liquidity into the market they can't exactly reverse the price action by printing more USDT. So the logic here doesn't seem to favor the belief that they benefited by printing a bunch of USDT because 1) they would have to sell them to other exchanges for real dollars and an exchange buying Tethers will want a solid counterparty to feel confident holding those Tethers. 2) Injecting more liquidity into the market doesn't really benefit them in a short-term trade as they can't reverse the price action by adding more Tethers to buy back crypto at lower prices.

The reality is that if 1) they have zero dollars to back their Tethers and there is a 100% run on Tethers (i.e. everyone wants out of Tethers) then it still won't make much of a difference. Bitfinex and whatever other entities backing Tether are rolling in cash and crypto holdings and have equity valuations in multiples of billions USD equivalent. It's highly unlikely they don't have at the very least an equivalent amount of assets to make Tether whole should the entire thing collapse. If they didn't back it up then they would self-destruct their business which would be pointless.

The second part is that if there is a "run" on Tether people aren't going to fiat. They are likely having to buy crypto and then sell to fiat through a local or OTC exchange or moving it to another exchange. If this happens a short term spike in crypto prices will likely create enough momentum that there won't be much of an effect if any on crypto prices overall as you can't exactly unload from Tethers to say Bitcoin and then back to USD in a quick manner. It will be illiquid and highly unlikely to influence crypto prices unless the news triggers adverse market behavior. And with crypto traders being fairly twitchy you never really know how this will play out but given all of the huge bounce backs from Parity hack, Coincheck hack, Nicehash hack, etc. it seems unlikely that some bad news for Tether plays out as anything more than a buying opportunity.
@powderpc, hey man sorry for delay. You know it's been an interesting past few days. Much appreciated you putting some much needed perspective on Tether. It's amazing how much false news or over-hype an article can get. I'll follow Tom Lee as well. I know he's a reputable analyst with some bullish predictions. I believe he is the one that said BTC is a steal at 9k, but I don't think he even predicted a 6k potential bottom this year. Current price action is looking more bullish on the short term charts (RSI, MACD, STOCH), but MACD on the daily is still in bear territory. I would like to see BTC break out of the ascending channel and hold it for a period of time before I go long again. Also what I found interesting is when I did a multi-year look at RSI and I looked for how many times it got to the recent lows I only show 3 times since 2016 on the daily. And after each low it was followed by a bullish trend up up up and away. Let's see where this current run goes.
Could you please take a look at big volume these days. Amount is similar to 17th Jan but holds longer, and we dont see big amplitude. Market looks nervous.
+3 Antworten
Best Poop ever.
+5 Antworten
Very Good advise, saying that Bears are still in control. The problem is "professional traders", as you call yourself, think market has a pattern all the time, and is a beautiful drawing.

In reality, it's more like water and flows with no prediction. So what we, "simple traders", could only do is try catch the water movement.
This is why I am trying to create a hole new way of trading called : "The Moving Water". So far is working pretty well, but I am trying to improve it as I speak.

Bottom line, we could have a bull trap, but even if it happens, would not go so far, there is no power for that:
- it is China's new year, and people from that part are taking there investments out to pay January bills, and a lot of USA results are coming out (fundamental);
- Big correction is about to happen, as the MA 1000 is squeezed down (3h chart), and price is about to loose MA100 (daily chart).

well talk is cheap so:

+5 Antworten
EspressoDopio lemosedmirf
@lemosedmirf, Good point.
What is the tool you use to calculat the risk/reward ratio? Is it done automatically?
Newman5 EspressoDopio
@EspressoDopio, That's the Long Position tool. Above the arrow and below the XABCD pattern tool in my toolbar.
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