Bitcoin Update
The break above the flag after far East opened had just enough power to take it back to the previous high of the day
but not enough to break higher still - it really had to achieve this in the first hour after the break above the upper parallel
of the continuation pattern - but only double topped before falling back once more to the break-out level before rallying
one last time to a new high for the new day before getting sold off as London opened (hight at 08.30GMT). That pin bar
created in the process means there is some serious near term selling power overhead. If you have raised/trailed your stops
as each blue line is regained by the bulls (to just a few points under the line once broken above) then only about 200 points more
profit have been locked in*.
Those that got long when 14002 was broken above and held for the second time - with a technically near-perfect restest
from above coming soon after (see chart) - have been rewarded with an 1800 point gain, so far, if not stopped out
higher still. But it's a heart-breaker if you followed advice to raise stops to 13675 - the low was 28 points lower - turning a
really good trade bad for those who followed it. Worse than being wrong, the most painful of all trades are those that are
right but with wrong stops. The lesson for 2018 is to know that stops need widening now from 50 to 100 points in past to
100 minimum and 200 to 300 maximum -because price has more than doubled in the interim period.
So if still long here we need to raise stops to just under the 14539 blue support line. Bitcoin should reach a minimum
upside target at 16887 as a consequence of the reverse head and shoulders but to stay good in the very near term it must
now continue to hold up at 14539 at lowest during the course of today - any failure to do so will trigger a short back to
14010 with a stop 100 lower if we see it.
On Upside, The first minor resistance is here, at 14900 and Bitcoin has to push through here to stay positive now in near
term. It's likely then to move sideways to up to retest 15077-15130 range and then to consolidate again before
moving higher still, with each blue line being the likeliest points at which to expect near term resistance/consolidation
to occur. So we stay long, looking to increase positions on a break above 15500 for further strength up to 16506 .
Bitcoin only turns negative from here if 14530 gives way - only then do we enter into short positons again, looking for retest
of 14010, where we would look to reverse back to long again
with stops 120 below, at 13880 .
*For newer traders any break above an upper flag parallel must have enough power to carry it above the last high (top
of flag-pole to immediate left on chart) and should do it within the next hour or so of the break-out occurring - some
flag break-outs only have the power to double top and some are full of intent, as we saw with the first flag breakout from
the 13770 level yesterday. So, for future reference: watch the break-out in that first hour after it happens - if it stumbles
and creates a little pin bar on 15 or 30 minute chart right around the last high it's a good clue that buying power is
waning here - this is when Chart V Heart problems can arise - you want to stay long but the chart is saying it's topping out
and losing upside momentum - you must follow the chart at that point, especially if the next candle starts red from the
outset and cannot make it above the last candle. It's VITAL that you study breaks - they are our life-blood, the things we
need to open new trades. Get a good understanding of breaks and failed breaks and you will be 80% of the way to making
good returns on trades and not letting profits slip away because your heart ruled your head and the chart therefore
got ignored. Overcoming natural human emotion and managing stops are our 2 biggest challenges as traders - not
identifying patterns and trades.
The break above the flag after far East opened had just enough power to take it back to the previous high of the day
but not enough to break higher still - it really had to achieve this in the first hour after the break above the upper parallel
of the continuation pattern - but only double topped before falling back once more to the break-out level before rallying
one last time to a new high for the new day before getting sold off as London opened (hight at 08.30GMT). That pin bar
created in the process means there is some serious near term selling power overhead. If you have raised/trailed your stops
as each blue line is regained by the bulls (to just a few points under the line once broken above) then only about 200 points more
profit have been locked in*.
Those that got long when 14002 was broken above and held for the second time - with a technically near-perfect restest
from above coming soon after (see chart) - have been rewarded with an 1800 point gain, so far, if not stopped out
higher still. But it's a heart-breaker if you followed advice to raise stops to 13675 - the low was 28 points lower - turning a
really good trade bad for those who followed it. Worse than being wrong, the most painful of all trades are those that are
right but with wrong stops. The lesson for 2018 is to know that stops need widening now from 50 to 100 points in past to
100 minimum and 200 to 300 maximum -because price has more than doubled in the interim period.
So if still long here we need to raise stops to just under the 14539 blue support line. Bitcoin should reach a minimum
upside target at 16887 as a consequence of the reverse head and shoulders but to stay good in the very near term it must
now continue to hold up at 14539 at lowest during the course of today - any failure to do so will trigger a short back to
14010 with a stop 100 lower if we see it.
On Upside, The first minor resistance is here, at 14900 and Bitcoin has to push through here to stay positive now in near
term. It's likely then to move sideways to up to retest 15077-15130 range and then to consolidate again before
moving higher still, with each blue line being the likeliest points at which to expect near term resistance/consolidation
to occur. So we stay long, looking to increase positions on a break above 15500 for further strength up to 16506 .
Bitcoin only turns negative from here if 14530 gives way - only then do we enter into short positons again, looking for retest
of 14010, where we would look to reverse back to long again
with stops 120 below, at 13880 .
*For newer traders any break above an upper flag parallel must have enough power to carry it above the last high (top
of flag-pole to immediate left on chart) and should do it within the next hour or so of the break-out occurring - some
flag break-outs only have the power to double top and some are full of intent, as we saw with the first flag breakout from
the 13770 level yesterday. So, for future reference: watch the break-out in that first hour after it happens - if it stumbles
and creates a little pin bar on 15 or 30 minute chart right around the last high it's a good clue that buying power is
waning here - this is when Chart V Heart problems can arise - you want to stay long but the chart is saying it's topping out
and losing upside momentum - you must follow the chart at that point, especially if the next candle starts red from the
outset and cannot make it above the last candle. It's VITAL that you study breaks - they are our life-blood, the things we
need to open new trades. Get a good understanding of breaks and failed breaks and you will be 80% of the way to making
good returns on trades and not letting profits slip away because your heart ruled your head and the chart therefore
got ignored. Overcoming natural human emotion and managing stops are our 2 biggest challenges as traders - not
identifying patterns and trades.
Kommentar:
Self fullfilling?
Kommentar:
Back On resistance line at 15077-15110 - day traders can clsoe out longs again and get ready to go long again once 15110 has been regained and holds up on the next retest. those longs left from yesterday's break above 14010 can also consider raising stops to just under 15000 now as well to trap in 1000 points or so if it fails from here
Kommentar:
Loses parallel and immediately seeks support from nearest structure to left...which is also the blue line of support...so still OK whilst above here and behaving technically in a near perfect way...so far....(nearest stop for longs now just under 15070 and furthest remain just under 15000 - came close, to within 5 or so points earlier but stayed good - must continue to do so - any break 15077- is likely to mean a move back to 15000 quickly and if this were to fail open a short back to 14656
Kommentar:
That looks like a big whale hit Bitcoin at 08:29 GMT with that big spike down from the high - now the pattern is similar on a smaller scale, with a smaller spike high beofre the decline to structure to immediate left - so lonf as 14880 can hold and the lower parallel of a potential flag this is not bearish full-on - close out shorts on next dip and only short agin if the lower paarllel of the flag is lost from here
Kommentar:
Now sliding down a set of parallels and not really bearish unless it breaks the lower parallel from here...looks like a continuation pattern which can be bought from touches on the lower parallel and again once the upper parallel is broken through on upside...this may take some time to achieve but should be worth following when we see it
Started updating via Telegram.org new Channel clled Chartattack (one word) . If you missed yesterday's updates or today's so far you may find it quicker to receive them via Telegram whichis quicker to upload and dooesn't crash when when Bitcoin does.
If you are day-trading Bitcoin or need to know what's happening to it via updates the next time it goes into a tail-spin you will need to sign up to Telegram.org. It's free and there is no catch, that am aware of at least.
Otherwise you can stick with Tradingview - but know that Telegram gets udated first because it's so much quicker (at least a couple of minutes, but a lifetime for Bitcoin in fast markets)
These, below, are from today's Telegram updates. And would really appreciate some feedback as to which is better in slower markets like today - this or Telegram ...all feedback is very welcome.
14:22
Parallel run for day traders _ exit on touch of upper parallel and enter again on touch of lower - with stop under the parallel - and once the lowewr parallel is broken on downside can reverse for quick 200-300 point fall as other day traders exit using the same lines to trade off - but you have to be quick - the quickest of the quick to day trade Bitcoin. Newbies please just watch and learn as much as possible and never get upset you missed a great chance of a profitable trade - there is another one just around the corner with BTC. You can't really make that assertion with most other 'stocks' - you can wait weeks for the next opportunity - with Bitcoin it's hours, next day maximum. Which is why we trade it - and not GE.
Yay! So you can see that thousands upon thusands of other traders have drawn the same lines on their charts today...and so to a large extent a self-fulfilling 'prophesy' is being played out each day in Bitcoin. We have nothing else to go on except News and Charts - and in absence of former traders naturally folllow the latter. We must too. And if we do that and don't go around with strong opinions either way too often unless we have a chart pattern to back it up with - then most of the time we can stay out of trouble - all we have to do is follow what the chart is telling us. ..