After a huge bull run back in June 2017 we experienced a very healthy market correction that retraced approximately 50% of gain before starting a new bull run. As of today it looks like the market has just corrected a similar 50% from recent highs and could potentially be signalling the end of this correction. Personally, I think this leg down was greatly exasperated by some well-timed negative news out of China and a combination of weak hands and big money taking profits.
If we look at the RSI we can see that Bitcoin is about to dip into the oversold range which has previous indicated that the correction may have run its course. And now that all the China news has seemed to have resolved itself and we now know China's plans regarding the regulation of ICOs and Exchanges, I think this could be the end of the correction. BUT beware, if your an active trader and Bitcoin breaks major support at around $3,000 we could see another leg down to $2,600.
Interesting note: After the last major correction like this the crypto market went on to almost triple in market cap from 65B to 180B. If we continue to grow at a similar pace we could easily hit $250-300 Billion in Market Cap before the next major correction.
There's a lot of sales going on right now so happy investing!
Great post. I think traders are misreading the information about the Chinese suspension not ban. Ban means trading will be looked at as an illegal practice. I think the powers that be are using this to capitalize so they can take thier Money out of a country that is heavily in debt, coupled with its weakening dollars and put it into crypto.
eexus
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@MrConscious, Lol Agreed! I assume your last sentence was referring to the US trying to poor fuel on the fire to scare off its citizens. China is in a massive surplus trying to get rid of USD by buying up commodities and I would assume cryptos also. lol
airmass
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Thank you. Nice article. May I ask how you know that "And now that all the China news has seemed to have resolved itself and we now know China's plans regarding the regulation of ICOs and Exchanges.."?? I personally think it makes no difference what China does. In fact, I think if China makes BTC illegal it would only further boost its demand as Chinese investors would try to seek protection from their own government. (I was just in China earlier this year and if you type Google.com or Facebook.com you will just get a blank page, both are illegal there and they to are fine without China). So while I think that whatever China does will be good for BTC no matter what, I am still curious how you know about China's plans...
eexus
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@airmass, Similar to what @MrConscious was touching on. When I refer to the China news being "resolved" I mean we now know the true intentions of China and the negative rumours/news that came out recently. The manner in which China announced their plans and how it was reported on is both suspicious and I think it was meant to fuel FUD.
First, China said we are halting ICOs and all recent ICO's had to refund Chinese citizens money... the news reported or insinuated that they were permanently banning ICOs. Soon after, China clarified their statement to say they were temporarily banning ICOs until regulations have been put in place because there have been too many scams going on...
Once that began to die down rumours came out that China were permanently banning exchanges... and again news reported that China was against Bitcoin and has permanently closed down exchanges. China has stated that the current exchanges which trade fiat for crypto are illegal and must shut down until regulations have been put in place. They also state “The domestic exchange between all the virtual currency and the renminbi, represented by Bitcoin, and Ethereum, will be closed in full; however, the regulation is not against the virtual currency itself, nor does it prohibit the one-on-one OTC transaction of the virtual currency.” So they have no beef with crypto to crypto trading.
So basically all this FUD was over China saying we're stoping all transactions from fiat to crypto until proper regulations have been put in place.
eexus
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@airmass, Regarding the sell off I agree that you would think that if regulations are coming you would try to buy more before then, but I think this massive selloff was due to a combination of factors:
- Misinformed news about the situation creating FUD globally for emotional newbies/weak hands
- Big gainers/newbies/weak hands in China are taking profits and panic selling to get out the market before China clamps down on fiat-to-crypto or exchanges potentially freeze accounts.
- Liquidation of crypto from refunds by ICOs
- I think whales are also taking profits and exacerbating the situation
- Jamie F'in Diamond talking garbage about bitcoin to scare the general population away from crypto.
The only thing I expect moving forward is a bunch of Chinese exchanges to announce temporary closures or the exclusion of Chinese customers in the exchanges until regulations have been put in place. All of which should not be surprise news.
eexus
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@airmass, A video was just posted by the Dollar Vigilante interviewing Simon Dixon of Bank to the Future in China who is currently in China that is confirming what I just talked about. China has halted all fiat-crypto exchanges until regulations have been put in place. The link to the video is here youtube.com/watch?v=UpOgz5wWrJg