johnny_repass
Short

1001 days in the life of a Bitcoin turkey

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
There has been a multi-year bull trend where BTC             rises, corrects, rises, corrects...

Every time BTC             successfully survives a correction and makes another run, confidence only increases in this pattern.

...this is exactly like Taleb's "Turkey Problem".

"Consider a turkey that is fed every day," Taleb writes. "Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race 'looking out for its best interests,' as a politician would say.

"On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief."

"Consider that feeling of safety reached its maximum when the risk was at the highest!"

Keep in mind that we've been in a short-term bear trend which, according to the past, should have basically bottomed out, soon reverse course, and BTC             will be back to making ATHs in a few months.

...OR we're getting closer and closer to Thanksgiving Dinner.

This is why risk management is imperative and prediction is a sucker's game.

Don't get me wrong...I think there is a lot of money to be made in cryptos and BTC             and that this tech could change the world. BUT this multi-year BTC             climb has also blinded folks to the true amount of risk they are taking on. There are alot of turkeys that believe that the price just has to keep going up and up and up. And it will...until it doesn't.
Kommentar:



2013-2014 looks very similar to what we are seeing now. A similar drop would put today's BTC into the 5K range... Oh, but things are different now you say. That was 4 whole years ago you say. Well yeah, things are different...until they're not. Better to always be prepared for the worst and not be surprised. At the very minimum, at least have a strategy in place in case prices do continue to drop.

What will happen to the turkey.. I am Turkish
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What will happen to my friend ate turkey
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But what target is it? 100USD? I mean it can happen as everything, but imo it's possible more to bottom at 1-2K$ if several things would be implode like tether, banning Korea, and other things.
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DrStein ja.piotr.bor
@ja.piotr.bor, IMO BTC will never fall below 4K again. Even 8K seems impossible. Next week will be crucial for BTC and crypto market in general. Just wait...

Nice turkey story btw. :)
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@DrStein, never say never. In crypto markets, capital can be easily spooked off, especially such dumb money as it's now.
Bear markets can be as harsh, as euphoric bull markets - every thing is multiplied, because of manipulations and frauds on exchanges. Sorry to say, but it would took at least 10 years to get to even 1000USD for BTC, if Mt.gox fradulent scam wasn't going on hard. In the end it will come from it, but even 60-75% correction can be in the play. Why not? This markets are pumped and dumped, still.
BTC will comeback, but alts can be hurt really severely. It will be the first bubble for them (like 2014 was for BTC), so we will see, how they can bottom out.
Imo a lot of alts is having out of the mind valuation and ico tokens are even more ridiculous. After bloodbath it could be good to see, what survived, and what was drowned and washed out, because a lot of projects are blatant scams, and their authors will sell their 0 worth tokens to get their fast money.
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DrStein ja.piotr.bor
@ja.piotr.bor, I totally agree about the vast majority of alts. Most of them are completely crap and who needs 1000+ crypto coins? I wish they all crash to 0 and then only a few crypto with good products and ideas behind them will survive and prosper. But I find it really difficult for this to happen...too many ignorant noobs are buying shitcoins who are shilled in youtube by stupid kids like JR Business and scammers like Trevon James and Crypto Nick. We need a big crash to see a healthy crypto market again IMO.
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@DrStein, the best example is Bitconnect, still worth roughly 10$, after exit-scam.
I'm providing support for a few smaller blockchain projects, which are technological breakthroughs, and have 10-20-50x less valuation, haha. It's a power of advertising and shilling.
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@DrStein, Yes the fact that 8K seems impossible is exactly my point. We almost hit 9K just a week ago and we have yet to confirm a trend reversal...so why not 8K?
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DrStein johnny_repass
@johnny_repass, There are huge buy walls waiting @10K and @9K. The price falls below 10K only for a few minutes. I don't say that its impossible I just say that it is too difficult. But lets see...
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@DrStein, did we see :)
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