On the other hand, if the market keeps crashing & goes under 7k, we'll go slowly to $2k as the bitcoin bubble completely pops. Many altcoins will go to 0. Exchanges may close. We'll know that the big moneyed interests don't want to make money from bitcoin --- they probably have other enterprises that run contrary to cryptocurrencies. It'll be years before bitcoin makes news again.
One thing to look for is tether. I noticed that in the past month every time huge amounts of tether is issued there's a major crash within 12 hours. I don't know what's happening there, but let's call it an interesting coincidence.
Btw , 8.8k is also the 0.236 level since 5k.
Another cue is CBOE . Today their Jan 18 batch matures. If afterwards there's no bounce, since we already have a confirmed double-top we'll probably stay in bear market for some time.
The biggest problem for the market is the concentration of bitcoin wealth & the mechanisms of bitcoin mining. I want to issue a Bitfair coin for which anyone with a valid passport can claim exactly 1 BTF. If trades are all denominated in Bitfair, we'll solve the current manipulation problem.
they can't sell their bitcoins to get cash without futures. now they can do this: sell 3.3x futures @20k, manipulate the exchanges so that the contracts become 10k when they matures = 1.6x profit. supposed to manipulate, they sold 2x at average 1.5. now they have 4.6x to buy bitcoin at 10k
increase their holdings by at least 3x.