or is this end of Bitcoin's bubble? I see waves situation just like on my drawing. I warned before that dump will be painful (see my previous ideas, especially "Waves counting and future moves anticipating" for BTCUSD). Now most posible for me is reaching 5000$ as very important support level (previous ATH, high of wave 3rd in 3rd in my counting) and 38.2 Fibo's retrace of wave 3rd (highest tier). Of course in scenario when 5000$ will not hold this dump, the counting presented will be viewed by me as failed.
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Alternative counting looks very awful for hodlers.
Market will show us the truth.
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My longterm holdings in BTC however are still not closed. Accordingly to my set of rules, if BTCUSD is above 38.2 Fibo retrace from ATH i hodl, closing is only triggered by crash of price significantly below mentioned 38.2 retrace, and closing is done when there is some bounce (minimum 50.0 retrace from dip to ATH).
See that here:
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Other chart, that better present my set of rules.
case 1st - BTCUSD stay above 38.2Fibo from ATH and the blue line (in this case i stay with my investment steady)
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case 2nd - BTCUSD drops under the red line (perfectly as close as possible to 50.0Fibo) - and i know in thta case, that i must close significant part of my position (50 to 80%) after bounces from levels around 50-61.8Fibo (bounce must be of course minimum 50.0 Fibo measured from dip to ATH, but i use sometimes 38.2, acordingly to fundamental situation of instrument).
What do you think of this bounce bitcoin just experienced - back up to $6400? I believe it is a dead cat bounce and we will continue downward towards the 61.8% fib level around the previous top at $4800. Although, I agree that this could be the top of a long term wave as per the elliot wave theory, in which case I believe this retracement will go very deep.
What do you think? I am holding ALTS.
orminlange
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@DeanJohnMuller, 0.5-61.8 Fibo measured from around 7900 to dip (5000?). Now was dip 5400 so bounce from this point could reach minimum 6600 or more. It looks for now of course like You "said like dead cat bounce":)
orminlange
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Doge_Dean
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@orminlange, Thanks for the response. Glad you agree. I've always been into financial markets and tech analysis, however, I'm new to cryptos, so a little reassurance of my strategy is appreciated :) All the best
orminlange
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Your welcome;)
If that bounce from 5400 will fail, there should be another from around 5000, also 50-61.8 Fibo is most probable.
orminlange
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And wish You the best too;)
orminlange
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Looks like those 5th wave on my previous did not reched 5000 and was "cutted". This things happen when the third wave is significantly longer than 1st. Bitcoin stays much move above 5000$ so for now it's bullish. Of course i dont take now any position, because playing contratrend will "cut the hands" of trader. And playing long in so advanced trend is also very risky an awaits from trader maximum of observation and time for it. I prefer longterm holding, after buying much undervalued coin/asset, and patiently waiting, waiting and ... waiting for bubble to occur.
What do you think? I am holding ALTS.