New buyers will enter before the fork to get 2x coins and avoid the burden of deciding which coin to hold.
These new prefork buyers are guaranteed to hold through the fork (~Nov 16) come what may.
Friday, Nov 10 is a bank holiday.
Bitcoin dumps love long weekends. 3 days during which bank deposits cannot come through to provide buy pressure.
Long through this week, then looking for a massive retrace starting on Thursday, Nov 9 that will trap new buyers and expel weak hands. Whales will re-enter for their prefork coins sometime shortly before the 2x fork.
Gotta love bitcoin.
Kommentar
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Note: Arrows are directional only. Dates are most important in this chart.
Kommentar
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S2X Cancelled. Great news for bitcoin, but trade still in effect. Watching for more FOMO leading into the weekend, followed by the retrace.
Kommentar
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blowoff top looks like it hit just shy of 8000. green arrow was a bit optimistic. weekend retrace seems in effect. good place to catch a bounce coming up here pretty soon.
immediate downside targets are ~6500. if weekly closes red on sunday night, downside opens up to 4500-5000. Nov 16 date no longer as relevant for entry so play accordingly.
If that plays out - you're a genius.
And that scenario is well deserved, I pray it happens!
All that greedy pig-like behavior of panic buying non stop in crazy rising rates, thinking bitcoin will go up in a linear line with no major correction...
It screams for an unexpected big nasty crush, to make the piggy buyers - panic sell and lose their money to the whales.
I haven't seen such a greed-rush in my life.
@hamora, I've been having the same observation, in that the whales are about to make an absolute killing off all this new money coming into the market. We are at price levels which have absolutely on support at this point, and while everybody is euphoric about Bitcoin at this moment, I sense a hangover coming.
Sure blockchain is a new technology and long term has already sparked a major re-assessment of how we manage finances, though the market principles are actually similar to a stock market, with limited shares, just the technology to manage the stocks/coins is different. I am very happy for this crypto revolution, and I think it's fantastic, though most of the public buyers coming in now don't understand the first thing about what a correction means, or what a support level is, and because Bitcoin is so now, it's as though Bitcoin can just go up and up forever.
Many of the whales are working with other people's funds and are accountable to them for quarterly profits in fiat currency, and at the end of the day they couldn't care less about what a blockchain is. People get excited about institutional money, but in fact it means more smart cookies who know how to play a market, and this market is about to get plaaayed.
Fact is, most people in Bitcoin recently are in it just to make money, and they are measuring it in fiat. Right now the big market players are seeing how far they can pump the euphoria and fomo, though you better bet these whales have alarm bells set to very high stop losses at this point, and once a few whales start to move, it's going to be a highly coordinated selloff, and we're going to get another panic sell from the public who will get caught catching the knife and lower and lower price points, until it hits the real support which I'd peg around $4500 at this point.
dtruitt
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Well--- I just read all the these analyses on TV's home page and yours makes the most sense. I don't know jack poopie, having gotten into cryptos 5 months ago and having made a number of dumb mistakes, but it's a forgiving market and I've made a bit, but not a lot. I'm just learning how to do chart analyses and, again, am pretty ignorant. A lot of times these guys, in retrospect, are laughably far off the mark. About two weeks ago a number were looking at a retracement to $3500. How'd that work out? I get the impression that many of these analysts are highly trained but still don't quite get the macro picture of BTC and the cryptos, which is that we are on the threshold of a revolution and anything can happen, making predictions a very inaccurate science. These guys buying in now are like me, when I bought in during the big June run-up at $2800 and only had to wait a month for the price to drop to $1800. I didn't panic sell- I held on, and sat through the August run-up, dumb as a post because I didn't even know how to cash out, missing the fall from 5k to 3.3k. Now I'm ready. My problem is that I'm going to the mountains for a couple days and have been debating going all cash. You've convinced me to sit tight. So I'll sit, and be ready for Veteran's Day weekend, when I'll be back. Thanks for the insight. And if it don't work out, that's the way it goes. The big picture still looks like a rocket to the moon.
gumbtg
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@dtruitt, youve got good logic behind your comment. Keep studying thou. Dont rely on these guys on the front page. They have beent rading for years and use techniques you wont pick up for a long time I would imagine. Look at my page as an example of how progression in TA occurs. Search AMTD, ECA, AMAT, NVDA, CLR, XPO on my page for good examples. Keep at it man
VolatilityRocks
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@dtruitt, Technical trading is about charts that manifest psychological behavior. That psychology exists in any market, old-world or otherwise.
TheZabisyu
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@VolatilityRocks, Technical Analyses? There is no definition. Anyone can make up anything and call it technical analysis. The field now seems to encompass everything from drawing trend lines to astrology.
Technical analysis started out with quite simple concepts, which are not all that dumb. In the early days, it was about looking for directional trends in prices and divergences between related market indexes. Experience told traders that when prices start moving in one direction, they are more likely to continue than to reverse. Technical analysis was just a way to visualize this concept.
Divergences were mostly about comparing the Dow Jones Industrial with the Dow Jones Transport, the two most important indexes at the time, and draw conclusions from potential differences.
Adding things like simple oversold/overbought indicators is still in the realm of sanity. Again, experience had taught traders that extreme short-term moves are often followed by a sudden pullback. Emotions run wild as the price takes off, propelling the price further until a short-term correction sets in when the buyers are already in and there’s no one left to push the price higher. Common sense things where technical analysis was used as a tool to visualize abstract phenomena.
Then the problems set it. The visual nature of technical analysis lends itself to get-rich-quick stories. After all, there’s no need for all that hard work, right? Why waste time learning tough things and gaining real-life experience when all you have to do is look at a chart and draw some lines? It was only a matter of time before this field was completely taken over by snake oil salesmen. To be fair, some of them are probably just delusional and not outright immoral.
There are no rules for what technical analysis is. So it became everything. In particular, everything that is easily sold. The more colorful naming and background story, the easier the sell.
At first, we had the indicator explosion. An easy way to get famous in the field is to create an indicator. Especially if you manage to get that indicator included in standard technical analysis software packages. So everyone and his grandmother started making indicators in hopes of fame. It’s a comfortable illusion, that all you need is to find the right indicators and you’ll be rich in no time at all. Just get those parameters right.
Then we have the field of exotic names. Doji, three little soldiers, spinning dragons, crouching tigers, Ichimoku, harami, spanking monkeys, and tons of more colorful names. Well, I might have made some of them up, but if others are allowed to make up random exotic names, why can’t I? That's what's up with TA. As far as lines represent the structure it's good!
TheZabisyu
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@TheZabisyu, That being said as far as lines represent the structure it's good because the structure is the psychology right?
ptbrodie
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@dtruitt, sounds like you've paid the tuition for a solid education. my first buys were into the bull trap after the nov 2013 bubble. paid for my economics education all the way down to 185, where i piled in.
to be clear, bitcoin is not done. it just looks like it might need to catch its breath.
And that scenario is well deserved, I pray it happens!
All that greedy pig-like behavior of panic buying non stop in crazy rising rates, thinking bitcoin will go up in a linear line with no major correction...
It screams for an unexpected big nasty crush, to make the piggy buyers - panic sell and lose their money to the whales.
I haven't seen such a greed-rush in my life.