bagofXMR
Short

BITCOIN POTENTIAL SHORT: BEAR FUNDAMENTALS

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
This is a sad moment for Bitcoin             . And probably for whole crypto-market.

We've seen bullish exhuberance on altcoin markets, where major alts (DASH, ETH, XMR) gained an 100% in average last 7 days. And they gained much more at their peaks.

These are the actual numbers against BTC             since bitcoin             ETF rejection:
  • XMR +155%
  • ETH +295%
  • DASH +265%
And other minor alts also grew A LOT against btc             .

We've seen this before. Prior the great bear market in BTC             at the end of 2013 begining of 2014.
This could be bitcoin             whales manipulating the small altcoins markets to squeeze as much bitcoin             as possible prior the bitcoin             bear market. Or in the best case scenario (unlikely in my opinion) a migration from BTC             to other solutions.

And we have some important bear fundamentals:

I have my opinions about this Bitcoin             Core/Bitcoin Unlimited war, but i think they are irrelevant. What is relevant is that something MUST be done. And splitting bitcoin             in two different chains IS NOT AN OPTION.

The bigger bitcoin             is, the most difficult finding a solution will be. This has been delayed too much. And it has a huge negative effect: people could start thinking that a decentralized governance IS NOT POSSIBLE. As bitcoin             is proving unable to reach consensus for years, and what is worse, this consensus seems more difficult each day.

And this seems to be simplified to a big disconformity about what is bitcoin             .

¿Is bitcoin             a currency/payment method or is bitcoin             a store of value? If even early adopters and leaders of the community can't agree on this, then bitcoin's future is doomed.

All this makes me feel quite unconfident of bitcoin             ability to hold it's current market cap.
I personally sold 40% of my cold storage (~$300 avg             buy price) into fiat at 1200.

And now i am opening a short.

I am laddering my short entry, 1130-1150-1170-1215-1250.
I will stop this short once i see the scaling debate/potential hardfork finding a friendly solution.
Kommentar: More info about this trade.
1130 - 5% of trade
1150 - 15% of trade
1170 - 20% of trade
1215 - 20% of trade
1250 - 40% of trade

Currently 1130 and 1150 filled, so 20% of trade already opened.
If we breakdown clearly of current support (1115-1120) i will readjust my entry remaining entry points.

Unless something changes dramatically, my current target is 690. Though it will be adjusted to market conditions.
Kommentar: Changing entry targets.
While i decide them, i have a 5% at 1040, 5% at 1050 and 5% at 1055.
So far, as expected, most alts couldn't stand btc sharp drop and their usd values were dismished.
Amazing the ZEC ability to make a 100% in usd value during this sharp drop of btc.
Kommentar: Now bitfinex allows you to speculate about if there'll be or not a hard fork and what would be the resulting two coins worth.
https://www.bitfinex.com/cst_token_terms
IMO an unfriendly hard fork with 2 chains with enough support would be the most bearish scenario possible. Outsiders would make fun of bitcoin and its failure to upgrade.
And unluckily each day this seems more and more possible.
Kommentar: Decided my short entries for now. If we simply keep going down without bounce, i might have to give up and leave this short smaller than i initially thought.
I'm trying to catch the top of any potential bounce for now.

So currently, these are my short entries, included the already filled ones:

1200 - 30%
1170 - 20%
1150 - 15% (filled)
1130 - 5% (filled)
1110 - 5%
1100 - 5%
1090 - 5%
1055 - 5%
1050 - 5%
1040 - 5%

1040-1050-1055 are the top of the 4h downtrend.
1090-1100-1110 are the retest of the broken daily uptrend.
1170-1200 are the top of the daily downtrend.

I'm aware weekly uptrend is still untouched (we have room to go down to ~870), but i think the fundamentals exposed could be a catalyst to break it. This is more a fundamental trade than a technichal trade.
Kommentar: 1040, 1050 and 1055 filled.
35% of planned position already opened.
So far, we retested the 4h downwards trendline
Kommentar: 1200 - 30% (waiting)
1170 - 20% (waiting)
1150 - 15% (filled)
1130 - 5% (filled)
1110 - 5% (filled)
1100 - 5% (filled)
1090 - 5% (filled)
1055 - 5% (filled)
1050 - 5% (filled)
1040 - 5% (filled)

50% of short opened. 1092.5 average entry price.
If everything is filled i'll have a +1140 average entry point.

Fundamentals are the same. And technichally we just retesting the breakdown point.
Kommentar: So naive to expect 1170-1200...!
But at least i loaded 50% of the short i planned, and it is still bigger than my remaining cold storage, so everything looking great.
Unrealized Profit so far: 17% w/o margin
Kommentar:
If we break the trendline and make a new high on hourly rsi, i will take any dip to scalp my short and open it higher. ~1050 is possible again if we break that trendline and clear out any potential bear divergence.
Kommentar: Stopped at 1010.
I will reopen if any of these scenarios happen:
hidden bear div in 4h
1045-1055
4h closing under trendline again
Kommentar: Correction potentially over


Bitcoin found resistance at the 0.618 fib retracement of the wave down, as it happened in the last correction that ended there too. Besides, this 0.618 retracement of the last wave concurrs with 0.382 retracement of the whole run.

Plus we have two potential hidden bear divs in the 4h
Kommentar: Short reloaded. Same size.
1016 average after closing at 1010, so not worth accounting for the tiny profit made in this scalp.
Kommentar: I made a mistake re-entering the short so fast. But we are still heading south.

We confirmed the hidden bear div in the 4h RSI and we are trying to confirm the same div in the 4h MACD, it will probably happen in the next 8h.

Then i'm expecting a new low around 840's.

Kommentar: This is the sad truth about current bitcoin status:
Kommentar: https://twitter.com/cnLedger/status/846500539839893504
Kommentar:
Even though this last bull try to break the downtrend, everything keeps signaling down in my opinion.
Next 6h are key.
Kommentar: Okay, this went up with strengh against my expectations. Still i hold onto my fundamental analysis.

China is still unable to withdraw their coins, scaling debate is still far from reaching an agreement (we now have a third proposal, extension blocks: https://news.bitcoin.com/bcoin-test-concept-extension-blocks/) and there is an increasing toxicity in the atmosphere (eg: gregory maxwell lying about reverse engineering an asic to try proof segwit opposition is based in an "unfair" mining advantage https://medium.com/@samcole_74219/asicboost-655a73d48ae4). Also the SEC rejected bitcoin as elegible for american average investor, rejecting the SolidX etf proposal (https://news.bitcoin.com/solidxs-attempt-to-disqualify-secs-bitcoin-etf-decision-fails/).

Though we've had some good news lately: japan massive bitcoin adoption (https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-accepted-260000-stores-summer/), Mexico regulation of bitcoin (https://news.bitcoin.com/mexico-bill-bitcoin-game-changer/) and bitfinex being able to pay off their debt after the massive hack they had (https://news.bitcoin.com/bitfinex-bfx-tokens-redeemed/).
Kommentar: And this is the "bear chart" i have for current price.

I'm now 100% filled with +1140 average withoug considering the scalps done.
If the upper trendline is broken i'm ready to stop my short and try a new scalp.
Kommentar:
We broke down and then cancelled the breakdown once it was made public that bitfinex has sued Wells Fargo for suspending Bitfinex outgoing bank wires. (source: https://bravenewcoin.com/news/wells-fargo-sued-for-suspending-bitfinex-wire-transfers/)
I'm in a hurry now, i will analyze this later, but basically this could drive the price up short term as bitfinex customers try to cashout the allegedly 130M usd in fiat assets held by bitfinex in behalf of their customers.
Kommentar: I'm still short. This fakeout on some exchanges (finex/polo/stamp) was surely due to the "fake" buy pressure from bitfinex. Me myself had to max my account to buy btc and get the hell out of there.
Fundamentals are bearer than ever regarding the scalability solution: the so called UASF is plainly wrong. Nodes are cheap and easily faked, that's why we have PoW to secure the network. If cheap nodes are reliable and can make decissions on bitcoin future, why the hell are we throwing away thousands of hundreds of usd in electricity to secure the network? Non sense.

Bear chart of the day:

Now dealing with that +5 points trendline, we need to break it to confirm bear reversal.
Kommentar: Short term short idea:

Ähnliche Ideen

This trade still open?
Antworten
bagofXMR etiennez0r
@etiennez0r, Fundamentally i'm still short, so every technichal short set up in whatever timeframe i see, i'm trying to trade it. some successfully, others not so much. And i'm also selling my remaining cold storage coins at these levels (only going to leave a few coins left just in case btc goes full bubble mode on bitfinex recovery news/china withdrawals reenabled). Specially with this finex issue that imo could end badly, i'm not feeling confident holding btc (i should say that most of my net worth is tied to crypto, so it is the wise move imo for my situation to sell my coins).
+1 Antworten
Yeah, you are right..BTC just started to go down when Bifinex announced this stolen btc recovery. It is a good news however now we need to wait again for massive btc dump...Need few weeks maybe and until btc could rise a bit.
Antworten
Great, something always come to keep the btc price high..:P
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bagofXMR CoinDreamer
@CoinDreamer, the honey badger is always milking money... :P
Damn i missed some nice longs while scalping/holding this short. Still i think the grand scheme of things is the same... Kinda confused right now.
Antworten
CoinDreamer bagofXMR
@bagofXMR, Yeah, the most annoying thing we missed this very long run..tricky old btc..;) However i am sure if I go long now ii will go down to hell..:P
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etiennez0r CoinDreamer
@CoinDreamer, true story xD
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I wonder how will work btc in 260k japanese stores if sometime need to wait an hour to confirm the transaction and the fees are way so high to make micro transations with btc...:\
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You are very silent about this trade..any changes? You filled the 1170 shorting?
Antworten
bagofXMR CoinDreamer
@CoinDreamer, Sorry, yes, i'm silet 'cause i am disappointed. Shouldn't have vanished from here. Yes, i was filled. going to update it.
Antworten
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