I have been updating my macro view with some of the micro movements and patterns here:
However, I thought it was time to take another look at it with a clean chart and fresh eyes.
I still see a huge descending , which is a fantastically setup, but within that, I see symmetrical triangle fractals.
The first symmetrical triangle took us from ~20k to 10.7k in a matter of 5 days. It then formed into a second smaller triangle that took us from 13.5k to 9.3k over 2 days.
The smaller triangle has an almost identical price pathway that is nearing the top edge and I'd expect it to retest the lower edge at around 10.6k for support. If the support doesn't hold, I believe we will be going down to ~8k, which will be the lower edge of the larger .
If we indeed hit this target and bounce convincingly, I believe this would be a very sign. At the very least, a swing to 12k to test resistance would be in play.
If the 20MA doesn't hold, it will be taking a trip down to see the 50MA; ~6k
This will most likely result in a death cross (200MA crossing the 20MA), further adding to the downward momentum. I believe we break the triangle support within the next ~8hrs.
Now this is when we retest the bottom of the triangle at $10.6k - $10.7k (not $11.7k which I erroneously said in my last comment).
I believe it will have a small bounce there, and then drop hard.
I expect some kind of bounce from 200MA but I'm unsure at this stage if it will be sustained or just another dead cat. Once we get closer to that stage I will update you all.
The worry is that now we have broken the 20MA on the weekly, the 50MA is in play. This results in a lower target of 5k-6.5k
I still feel this is only a temporary reprieve, and that the bigger weekly 50MA is still in play.
The apex is at 10k. I think that area is now going to be significant resistance considering how much support it previously provided.
Even though we hit the target on the daily time frame, I can't help but think the weekly ~6k-7k is still in play.
We will know more within the next day or so, since we will have our weekly close and potentially a completed rising wedge.
I hope you were either able to short and make money on the way down, or preserve capital by getting out in time.