How to profit from all of this? Read the market and think about what can the market do to fool people!
I have marked and numbered entries (long and short). I will try to explain each of them briefly, if you have questions feel free to comment or PM me.
- Big and candle
- Started after two big downmoves at the lower end of channel
- Agressive countertrend entry, but pullback to and short squeeze to be expected
- Steep upmove broken
- Two pushes to a new high
- Nearly all shorts from the previous downtrend had their breakeven stops hit
- An imminent retest of the low is not to be expected after such a strong upmove, but a range should be established below
- Nearly everbody who got long at the start of the pullback (Long 1) had their breakeven stop being hit
- Two legs down from High (Short 1) completed
- Another leg up expected inside possible range or broad
- Several attempts to go lower failed ( candles)
- Possible short trap: Traders looking down, expecting new low or downtrend
- Short term uptrend
- Failed second entry short (which is just a failed second attempt to go lower)
- Target at the upper range, which is also the second big leg up
- Now we had a big move up (2. leg up completed), the break and a new high
- Additionally we are at the upper side of the range, range rules apply
- Possible bull trap: Traders might see a and a new strong uptrend
- Dont forget the low (Long 1) and a ossible retest or new low at this point!
- Small bull trap: after two small pushes up early shorts might be squeezed out again and longs pulled in
- Still thinking range or retest of the low
- Kind of aggressive short entry, but if it is a bull trap it is often hard to get in short later
- New steeper dontrend established
- Second entry short + two small legs back to the downtrend line (best entry in trends)
- Expected test of support levels below
- Prices failed to go higher at the downtrend line two times (second entry short)
- Second leg down expected (blue arrow)
- New low expected (target also from leg down)
Short 6 +7
- After the break of the strong downtrend a new low is to be expected
- Failed to go higher at the
- Second entry short
- Possible downward pointing range
At the time of writing, prices have fallen below the supports and made two legs down.
A rebound can be expected here, but this is not a sign to go long. But a place to cover some shorts.
The new short term downtrend is still intact.