Bitcoin is in a period of consolidation at the bottom of the long-term channel. Movement will seem sideways and down until indicators signal the next wave of adoption. Sentiment will remain low. Recovery will be slow.
We'll bounce between key resistance and support lines for the next month to two months. The bottom of the channel has moved down a little, but it's a minor and almost imperceptible change. However, we haven't had a lot of price discovery at the bottom of this channel, which is evidenced by breaching the previously drawn lines. We'll confirm the channel at least twice more before making substantial moves up later in 2018.
There is apparent SEC and bipartisan support from the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs indicates long-term US support for Wall Street to develop tools. There is a green light for growth in related and supporting sectors of finance and speculation.
A : Medium-term consolidation
Resistance to growth remains through February, part of March, and possibly into May. and moderate performance is accompanied by price stability. Two heavy resistance lines are broken before sentiment can return.
B : New ATH sometime between June and August 2018
Heavy resistance is broken--drawn from the 2017 ATH and the January 2018 breakdown—and moderate to sentiment pushes bitcoin to a new ATH . ATH is established somewhere between 20K and 28K USD. A new wave of adoption from new markets is identified. Full capitulation from alt market speculation exposes frivolous Crypto Assets.
C : The ascending drawn from the 2013 ATH is difficult to break.
We bounce off the ascending between June and December 2018. The bottom of the channel is retested near the current ATH .
Bitcoin's user base rapidly grows. It’s fueled by speculation that institutional adoption and an are on the way. Speculation attracts a new wave of users who are disenchanted with traditional investments. Bitcoin's young male demographic starts to diversify and enter new markets internationally.
Segwit and Lightning adoption demonstrate 100x increase in possible transaction support while significantly decreasing transaction fees. LocalBitcoin processes 20 to 40 million USD in transactions daily. Press praises Bitcoin as a tool ready or nearly ready for “Main Street.” A use case for Lightning in retail businesses is implemented in some markets.
D : Bounce off the top of the channel again by early 2019
Speculative fever ignites again and Bitcoin hits the top of the long-term channel for the first time since November 2015. Our new ATH is somewhere between 90k and 250k USD/BTC. The correction to the bottom of the channel triggers a fresh wave of obituaries.
Hitting the top of the channel signals a long-term bear market and moves the price into a comparatively moderate range, well under 100K USD. Bouncing off the top of the channel completes before speculation about the halving takes hold of sentiment in early 2020.
By the end of 2019, 1 million USD price targets are commonly issued from established financial institutions in the United States. The halving and its market impact a discussed regularly in mainstream media outlets. Fees are so low that you can still buy a cup of coffee with Bitcoin at the speculative peak.
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