SteveEnnom
Short

$BTCUSD fall is not over yet

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
$BTC fall is not over yet in my opinion.

The cross will likely turn bull temporarily to let the market brethe but will soon revert into the third wave and the cross could lose another 20% or more till it reaches its next support level around 8000$.

From there, even if it is too early for a "prediction", seems like the market could return bull since the chart is forming a sort of bearish Gartley .

Foundamentally speaking seems like governments (China, South Korea and even France) are more and more trying to "hard" regulate the crypto market and especially exchanges. This is not entirely a bad thing if you think about it. Putting your money at stake in highly unregulated exchanges where liquidity is not granted, may put investor at an even higher risk than investing in an highly volatile market. Although big players (professionals) are into the market we need to take into consideration that lots of small unexperienced investors joined it given the hype around such a commodity. There are lots of money at stake in the market and a crash or the failure of some exchanges can create a contagion effect that will hurt the economy as a whole. Be advised.

As usual, this is not a trading advise, just my idea and analysis.
Kommentar: Attention:
Although BTC seems to bounce I don't think this is over yet!
I think it's a dead cat bounce and the market might be accumulating before another drop.
During this phase prices might even reach 12k but we're still in the bearish channel.
Kommentar: We're gonna hit those 8k!
NOT.OVER.YET.
Kommentar: As I kept sayin' ....NOT OVER YET!
Trade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht: Well, I stand with target reached (8060 on Bitstamp) altough the current market conditions will call for an even lower retracement. 8k is a difficult psycological barrier but, once completely cleared it will be limitless.

Thanks to all who followed my idea.
What do you think about this as another scenario?
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SteveEnnom philipjterry
@philipjterry, well, almost every level below 10k is a sort of support (psycological at least). If it breaks 8k with supporting volumes then the next stop level can definitely be around 3500 or so. Seems to me that a bearish gartley is forming so at its completion a bounce is due. The "macroeconomic" (South Korea, China...) view at that point can be the key at that point.
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Great perspective on this... I was thinking the same. Reminds me of Talebs ideas about antifragile. Maybe these shocks are needed to make the system more robust. It's when they come in seemingly orchestrated succession you wonder... I hope all the craziness doesn't deter too many people on the sidelines though. Just thinking about Buffet's quote "It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it"
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SteveEnnom philipjterry
@philipjterry, Taleb is a genius :) ...a graphomanic (meaning he writes a lot) but definitely enjoyable to read
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Good objective analysis
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SteveEnnom thaytch
@thaytch, Thanks a lot, much appreciated !
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