In my last chart, I mentioned the potential for a failed breakout, well obviously, that turned out to be true. If you've been following me you'd be well prepared for the situations we've found ourselves in over the past few days. With that in mind, on this most recent break downwards of the triangle, we tested the hard support zone, and immediately bounced. I mentioned yesterday the importance of $11,256 holding as support - it failed and my stop loss triggered @ 10.8, and I immediately re-bought @ 10.5.
Key notes:
1) In regards to shorts you'd be long from $11,600 -- if we were going to test the potential zone @ $11-$11,200 would you then open a short at a potential support zone between $11-$11,200?
I wouldn't.
As a result, I think alot of new shorts opened at $10,800-$11,000, and those shorts are currently in jeopardy, I'd imagine alot of liquidation to happen around $11,200 if people didn't close their shorts, also, seeing the support that was found right away, and a possible short squeeze in play here.
2) Symmetrical triangles (purple) have a 64% chance to break upwards. While it's not perfect, you get the jist.
3) We bottomed out on the weekly RSI.
4) A daily MACD crossing is going to happen unless we take a dramatic downturn in the next 48 hours.
With all the positive indicators on the horizon, I'd be very skeptical if we continued downwards, I've highlighted the zones of interest with price labels, and the long term trends are shown in blue. I'll be looking to exit @ either the $12,700 zone, or, the $14,450 zone.
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We have a break upwards of the triangle, this is a critical point, we want to observe *very* closely on whether or not this is a failed breakout.
If this is a failed breakout, that would imply further downside movement towards, and possibly a break below the triangle below.
Key notes:
For further rally we want the EMA's to hold @ the price label as support in the sell off and for volume to pick back up.
Current situation:
1) Low volume breakout 2) Approaching oversold area
As always trade safe, and I'll update as the situation develops!
We're looking at a breakdown, I have exited the market, we will see where support catches, we could see one last push upwards, but I have exited the market for the time being.
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The trend held overnight, and we have room to grow, I'm looking for scalps today, nothing long term and ready to exit at a moments notice, that said, I have re-bought.
I do not recommend buying in until we see confirmations.
This could either break up, or down. Long term we're in a falling wedge, but we also can drop much lower still. Safe trades will wait for confirmations I'll be looking for, in the meanwhile I'll be in and out of the market but not posting those trades.
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Look for $10,300 - $10,000 to hold, if those fail, we're looking at a complete breakdown, expect 8800-9600 buys
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I've bought in @ $10,410, however ready to exit a moments notice. We will continue to see downward pressure over the coming hours.
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Protect your money if you haven't been, don't try to catch the bottom, let it confirm.
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Another well timed article, (2 months old too) I swear, if this wasn't real life I'd say you couldn't make this up.
Regardless, wait to see what asia does in a couple hours, I'm completely on the sidelines at the moment, we very well may see a test towards the 200EMA, at which point should satisfy the herd, and I'd imagine a super charged bull run, now as I've mentioned on multiple occasions, if for any reason we start trading and closing candles underneath the 200 EMA, I will not be staying in the market as a support that has held for 3 years will be nullified.
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Additionally, some weird crap might happen cause of this, lets say people lose faith in tether..theyd have to BUY other coins...thereby causing them to go up, now, at that point, people might rush to exit, or, keep them.
So we need to pay attention to tethers market cap, if it starts declining, we know a run's about to come, now...the next part is people might be making a run to then exit into fiat...who knows!
Regardless, I've adopted a 'wait and see' approach currently.
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Bullish divergence on 30m, reversal should be soon - to where, who knows!
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For sure a double bottom, possible triple bottom in play here, (if this support holds), if confirmed, should provide significant reversal upwards.
Regardless, if 9500 breaks, we're going down hard, and fast, and I don't imagine it'd stay down there very long. I've managed to scalp about 6% more BTC today onto my stack, and I'm currently in from $9700. As I mentioned, could very well go lower, however, I'm just not really sold on the whole 7k BTC thing. 7800 for the 200 daily SMA(tested 2 times in the past I believe), or 8800 for the 200 daily EMA (tested 5 times past 3 years, might be 6, going off memory)
Could totally be wrong, as we have different market conditions, and as I mentioned, if it does go lower, I'd be asleep anyways to not take advantage of it, however, I'm going to take a calculated risk and assume a major bear run won't resume when we're currently incredibly oversold on everything.
With that said, good luck tonight all, and trade safe, I'll be holding over night.
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I'll make a new chart today, but looks like we have a triple bottom, and that bullish divergence I mentioned has shown up in the hourly as well. We will see a strong test @ 10,500-10,700 zone, if it can clear that we should be good to enter back into the 11's and possibly back towards the $11256-$11500 zone that's been a nightmare.
Alternatively, if price fails to hold support @ 9500 we'll be looking at 8800 (EMA) or 7800 (SMA). I would anticipate 8800 to be the support as its been tested and held more times over the past years.
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I've exited @ 10,240, 50/50 it recovers and a test of $10,500 may come, but likely to fail. We should see further downside movement throughout the day
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Have sidelined this until we're out of the gutter. New data will be posted @
@ant187 Just read a great roundup of why the futures contracts were significantly more difficult to manipulate this time around. Worth a read, as it can inform analysis for future contracts. With thanks to Jonesjr2010 on Reddit.
"The CME futures expire tomorrow, and everyone is panicking that Wall Street will manipulate the price downward to gain the most profit... But it's not that simple; CME has limits on what any given entity can hold, that make it almost unprofitable given the cost of manipulation.
Any entity is limited to owning 1k contracts containing 5btc each. Every $5 move in bitcoin is a $25 profit/loss on a contract. In the recent month, we saw the price move from 19k to 10k potentially tomorrow at expiration - accounting for a 9k price move, meaning 45M possible profit (per entity holding the maximum 1k contracts; every 1K move in btc price equals a 5M profit/loss). I am a realist, and do believe that multiple entities could collect and agree on a direction (for example 10 groups) meaning the profit would be 450M for the month of January. However, open interest today says this isn't happening (more on that below).
To manipulate the price today, it costs about 15M to buy all the btc within 1K of the current price (based on the depth chart in GDAX). The group of 10 entities (referenced above) could agree to spend 15M to move the price lower by 1K, thus gaining the group of 10 a total of 50M (or a 35M profit for the group by spending 15M). This will not hold the price down the 1K, however, and many traders would instantly gobble up the orders at the lower price, meaning the entities would need to do this multiple times to keep the price low. A realistic strategy for Wall Street is going to be to hold their "manipulation money" until right before the market closes, and push price down in the hours leading up to expiration (4pm London time, or 11am Eastern Time for CME futures).
As the market matures and becomes more balanced, these opportunities will be harder to accomplish, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable that this could happen tomorrow, but likely in the 9am-11am hours, and likely immediately rebound back.
Finally, the open interest on the futures expiring tomorrow is currently at 1,459 contracts, meaning the total bitcoin in play here is 7,295 btc or ~80M, meaning the cost of manipulation will dramatically cut into profits. This also means there is not a group of 10 entities teaming up to manipulate the price.
Just food for thought as people prepare for the Wall Street futures dip tomorrow...
TLDR; I don't think it'll happen, the business case and open interest just isn't there."
@rbenz, thanks for this analysis. Really informative. The fact is that most of the traders do not know this and crypto market is controlled by emotions like greed, fear and uncertainty. We need a big drop to 8K IMO in order to reset and see a bullish market again.
10,5k seems to be holding... However isn't it forming a bear flag now?
m5b11
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Yes, on the 4hour window it looks like a symmetrical wedge, however; when you compare to the 1 day window its clearly a falling wedge. I 100% agree bullish break out is imminent
ant187
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@m5b11, glad you agree! Hopefully we can get this party started soon
You must mean take off up for a few days and then crashing down, right?
I see massive bear divergence on the daily rsi, daily MACD, and weekly RSI.
ant187
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@whoisthelorax, Yes, that's why I selected $12,700 and $14,400 zones as sell zones, I believe we *could* potentially reverse at those zones again, gotta get there first though ;P
"The CME futures expire tomorrow, and everyone is panicking that Wall Street will manipulate the price downward to gain the most profit... But it's not that simple; CME has limits on what any given entity can hold, that make it almost unprofitable given the cost of manipulation.
Any entity is limited to owning 1k contracts containing 5btc each. Every $5 move in bitcoin is a $25 profit/loss on a contract. In the recent month, we saw the price move from 19k to 10k potentially tomorrow at expiration - accounting for a 9k price move, meaning 45M possible profit (per entity holding the maximum 1k contracts; every 1K move in btc price equals a 5M profit/loss). I am a realist, and do believe that multiple entities could collect and agree on a direction (for example 10 groups) meaning the profit would be 450M for the month of January. However, open interest today says this isn't happening (more on that below).
To manipulate the price today, it costs about 15M to buy all the btc within 1K of the current price (based on the depth chart in GDAX). The group of 10 entities (referenced above) could agree to spend 15M to move the price lower by 1K, thus gaining the group of 10 a total of 50M (or a 35M profit for the group by spending 15M). This will not hold the price down the 1K, however, and many traders would instantly gobble up the orders at the lower price, meaning the entities would need to do this multiple times to keep the price low. A realistic strategy for Wall Street is going to be to hold their "manipulation money" until right before the market closes, and push price down in the hours leading up to expiration (4pm London time, or 11am Eastern Time for CME futures).
As the market matures and becomes more balanced, these opportunities will be harder to accomplish, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable that this could happen tomorrow, but likely in the 9am-11am hours, and likely immediately rebound back.
Finally, the open interest on the futures expiring tomorrow is currently at 1,459 contracts, meaning the total bitcoin in play here is 7,295 btc or ~80M, meaning the cost of manipulation will dramatically cut into profits. This also means there is not a group of 10 entities teaming up to manipulate the price.
Just food for thought as people prepare for the Wall Street futures dip tomorrow...
TLDR; I don't think it'll happen, the business case and open interest just isn't there."