I've never really been an Elliot wave trader, however I've been looking into the theory behind them lately, and I find the concept very interesting. Let's see how this scenario plays out. Besides the Elliot waves, we have a massive bull flag that formed from 7500 down to 7000, which has now broken upwards again. Elliot waves, bull flags - Bitcoin is going to new highs
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Fuck, it just occurred to me, that if this prediction is correct, BTC will be OVER 9000!!! (DBZ fans will get it lol)
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To support the thesis that this is an Elliot wave, I looked at the properties of each wave and I have come to the conclusion that this setup has the required properties.
Properties of an Elliot Wave:
Wave 1 - Hardly ever obvious at its inception, previous trend is still considered to be in force.
Wave 2 - Corrects wave 1, never extends beyond the starting point of wave 1 however. Bearish sentiment builds. Volume is lower than wave 1.
Wave 3 - Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish , and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend . ( volume higher than wave 2)
Wave 4 - Volume is well below than that of wave three . This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, fourth waves are often frustrating because of their lack of progress in the larger trend.
Wave 5 - Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish . Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top.
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Right now, we're waiting for wave 1 and 2 to complete, and plan to buy at the pullback after wave 2, in the hopes we'll catch a nice run up on wave 3. Entry at 7350, marked by green arrow:
Added the ABC correction wave, and now this follows the Elliott 5-3-5 wave pattern
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Seems wave 1 might be ending, and we may be entering wave 2, the correction
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BREAKING: Fundamentals have changed, fork has been called off /postponed for now. Back to alts guys
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Will see how BTC looks after the 2nd wave, and decide whether or not to go long. The 9k target may not apply since there will be no free money from forked coins
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No longer an Elliott wave, wave 2 broke below wave 1. News changed the situation
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New thoughts on BTC now that there won't be a hard fork
@ZABTC BTC could go to $8200 before this correction you are showing? What do you think?
UnknownUnicorn897809
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@jezuke97, Not so sure after the fork was cancelled
sebastian.soik
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Your technicals are correct but I don't agree with your last conclusion. A major correction was very likely after the 2x fork. Now there is a new (probably bullish) situation for bitcoin.
Nevertheless it will carry all the altcoins higher so I think we have to look for the best percentage (Litecoin? Neo? Ether?) to ride this new momentum.
UnknownUnicorn897809
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@Sebastian.soik, Hmmm, I'm not so sure BTC will keep going now that there is no more news that can materialize. I really think the BTC hype cycle, after this last announcement, has reached the peak of its hype cycle - for now.
sebastian.soik
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@Sebastian.soik, Oh, and the Elliot wave crashed. (Rule2: Wave2 may not be lower than Wave1)
UnknownUnicorn897809
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@Sebastian.soik, Exactly, which is why I changed the conclusion in the end. The catalyst for the run up is no longer there