Nidalas
Long

[LONG] Bitcoin map for uncertainty days

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Current mid term #btcusd #map
showing bearish for the time being
Target zones in yellow, follow the lines, buy at weakness point, if rebound, sell at resistance point. If it passes through the weakness support point, and does not rebound, sell just below it and wait for the next support zone
Sold at yellow target, and now recovering 100% of my position, with the cash FIAT stack 100% and ready to get the falling knives. If the correction is over, we will see sideway crawling out of the downtrend, or the end of the rebound up to 14k5.
If the correction is not over i would be surprised we broke downtrend channel into pure panic. So i still expect some resting around those levels before more down
Either way, of all the spectrum of "bitcoin disappears tomorrow" to "bitcoin is the official world currency", and everything in between scenarii, we exit as winners.

investor Buy zones and trader sell zones marked in yellow circles. Follow the lines to see where you are at, and stay safe. Choppy markets are where non experienced traders get crushed, and investors nag them with "haha you should have HODL". We don't care about all of that, we are here to win, so we are both investors AND traders

Purpose of the game : win whether if the markets goes up, down, or sideways.

Fundamentals are mixed
negative bearish/neutral short term (regulation fear, miners uncertainty with both china and Lightning, Futures closing, vulnerability to a BCH attack)
positive super mega bull long term ( Futures giving "legitimacy" *sigh*, hype gone, correction level to continue a healthy bull done, Lightning, new projects)

Stay frosty
Kommentar: I often see people nagging with the famous "bubble picture". This picture is true, and bubbles often collapse. But this graph is only true if the rebound has no strength (which is impossible to determine for btc right now, even if it is not looking too good). The rest of the time, bubbles often do a same fractal of this and goes to new highs, making it a simple ABC correction

However, trading or investing is not about being right or wrong, but making money, so you have to always be prepared to both and walk out with a much higher capital in both cases. This is why both the "HOLD" and "GET OUT BUBBLE BURST" people yelling are both people that will eventually get crushed at some point, now or in the future. You need a mixted strategy and be one step ahead.

Markets, be it crypto or any other one is like the jungle, you adapt or die.

If you look at my previous analyses, I began selling at 8k, bought back at 8k5, and began selling again from 16k to 19k, where i sold every single btc for either fiat, to prepare for today, and alts, to prepare for their bull run (which they did).

Now i covered my position 100% and will just wait, with more money to enjoy or re-add at lower prices to have an even better mean value.

-It's a bubble burst , and we see btc going slowly to 1300$ ? it's cool, I will catch falling knives and make +50% swings with the big stack of money i made.
-It's a bear trap, and we see a new all time high ? it's cool, I have my long position intact from 3000$ and before, and can add a lot more on the way up


Patience, discipline and preparation is what will make you earn money, not quick flips

Because even bubbles recover. Holland is still "the land of the tulip", BTC still made x20 since it's last real bubble in 2013, and even nasdaq is retesting ATH after it's dotcom bubble
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/07/NASDAQ_100_No_labels.svg/560px-NASDAQ_100_No_labels.svg.png
Kommentar: Resistance touched (current price 11650)
scalpers, Feel free to take some profit to be safe. Impact had low strength, but I still see positive movement in the medium term, with maybe a selloff for the 26th. However, markets are getting very oversold, so I would be surprised to see it go low without "relaxing" to a 13-14k level first, or at least sideways action
Kommentar: We retraced as expected, nothing to worry about for now, but everything is still very weak, we might have to consider lower targets depending on the strength of penetration of the resistance. I will update when we know the momentum. Very likely the 26th (tomorrow)
Kommentar: A picture is better than a thousand words
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Kommentar: Better rebound now, or it will be panic sell time
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Kommentar: It rebounded, but is weak. Fractal analysis clearly shows us that we are doing the same pattern over again, but with a more present selling pressure, and a more ominous feel
Kommentar: Oops, excuse this message sent too early.
It rebounded, but is weak.

Fractal analysis clearly shows us that we are doing the same pattern over again, but with a more present selling pressure, and a more ominous feel, while for a reversal we should feel the selling pressure getting smaller over time. This is typical of bear markets, and not simply corrections.

This means we could continue to see lower lows in the weeks to come. Overall, don't forget the trend is still up, and the 9200$ entry provided us with a lot of room for getting out with profit

Currently, I see two most probable scenarii
1/ breakout upward, slowly rise to 12k6, pullback, rise pierce to 14k6 and then, we will have to judge the impulse momentum to mesure if we are in bulltrap or new bullrun. I will keep you updated
2/ slow bleed drifting down of the triangle to retest the lows, that lead to a panic selloff then stabilization, and as only holders are left, but no new investors to come, for a boring bear market of couple of months, with quick spikes showing huge price variation within a day.

Overall, the very long time trend (see my other idea) is still intact, and just means we completed the first bull run of this wave, akin to 2013's two part bull with a -75% bear market lasting couple of months in between

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Kommentar: Trying. Probably third and last try

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Kommentar: Decent breakout, decent strength, relatively low volume, I expect BTC to go up until around the 3rd February to the yellow up circle. But mostly, it should give alts some breather as I expect most good ones to rise or recover

Be careful of fakeouts, but for now steam seems enough to continue well this week
Kommentar: A bit late to touch the yellow bubble, but still

If we bottom now, or very soon, it will be a textbook wyckoff accumulation pattern (we would be at (10) right now)

http://static.safehaven.com/authors/ticker/21691_c.png
Kommentar: Note : if we don't bottom, buy anything below 7650 without hesitation, as we are certain to revisit higher values than this at some point
Kommentar: Touched the bottom of my target. Let's see what happens
Trade ist aktiv: I'm buying, it touched lower trendline
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Kommentar: Note : also buying back the alts
Kommentar: Oh well...
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Kommentar: It's a massacre out there haha

Be ready to jump ship if you are feint of heart!

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Kommentar: very short term. Must follow the yellow curve for a reversal. Otherwise, the real selloff to 7k5 begins
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Kommentar: If you are on leverage or betting the house (you shouldn't), maybe it is time to exit with few % if you didn't take the 14% scalp
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Kommentar: 7950, you can start rebuilding the position sold at 8500-8900$

More down expected, still, but not too much. 7k5 still the target


Note there is a 300 / 400$ difference between exchanges

Everybody is buying bitcoins off Bitfinex / Bittrex / Binance / Poloniex etc... To sell on Bitstamp, Kraken, Coinbase etc...

Basically, everybody is fearing USDT collapse, and transfering them into "real" dollars
Kommentar: Basically what is happening is a reverse of my bitcoin analysis at 7k5 (during uptrend), w hen it broke up-resistance and entered a new steeper uptrend, that I called "bubble territory"

We broke downtrend, so anything below now is a safe buy mid term, but short term can get ugly. We are basically in a 5th wave down, which are often waves with no retracement, a lot of fear (or greed in uptrend), and a sharp, steep, ugly end (like bitcoin at 19k)

But it can still go very low. If you refer to my previous mid term btc analysis, we just completed the red correction arrow, and if we don't see a rebound above 7500 to the 9k levels, we can expect a full crashing bear market over the next months

Kommentar: Probably not going there :-)
Patience pays off ! Right on the target !

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Kommentar: Beware of bull trap, as this could also be the wave 4 out of 5 of the downtrend

This is the pattern we need to confirm reversal

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Kommentar: Basically most likely scenarii :

- bullish scenario, we go to 10 100, pullback to 9500, hold it, and re-pierce 10 100, confiring the iH&S, finishing the major leg down of the Grand Cycle correction, and most likely retesting levels near ATH, overall 10-20k range oscillation, then a new highly bullish wave

- bearish scenario, we go to 9k5, can't break it, confirm a sharp and fast wave 4 of the correction, and test sub 7k5 levels, confirming once and for all the months bear market


Anything in-between can happen, and since we are in a deep bear market, expect the bearish scenario until we confirm the bullish. Doesn't mean we won't make profit scalping, such as today
Kommentar: Bearish scenario unfolded, huge dump below support, right after touching 9475

Hope you sold then
This is the last wave down, 5 out of 5 for btc, and probably the strongest. Expect finally some sun after this last storm. However, nothing longterm, bear market in place
Kommentar: You can start rebuilding your position relatively early, it could also get truncated, and only double bottom, in a classic Wyckoff accumulation
Kommentar: Updated view for very short term

**bullish confirmation : 8450 (wyckoff accumulation or double bottom, going to upper channel resistance) for a rejection and ending of bear trend. People wanting to be safe will want to wait for a full 1h or 4h candle above it to buy at a safe premium
**bearish confirmation : Stays below the lower channel support to start a cascading panic into wave full blown wave 5/5 of 5/5 of this correction with very few rebounds, if any. Targets of those are unknown for now due to their parabolic nature, and we will need to asset its momentum for a clear target once it starts, if it starts, as we did for our buys at around 7600$
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Mid term bullish (weeks)
Long term neutral (months)
Very long term super bullish (years)

Stay frosty, those days are important
Kommentar: 6300, almost there, you can start buying for good longterm, but still weakness
Kommentar:
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Looks familiar...? (hint : my February 2nd update)

Same play, same risks, same opportunities
"bears slowly scalping the hide of pigs before going back to hibernate, before the bulls come back to stampede everything once more"
And here we are, patient, on the lookout

Stay frosty.
Kommentar: Short term situation :
Volume is absolutely insane. Higher than when BTC was at 3000$. We have seen 5 waves down, so the question is more "did we bottom yet, or is the wave extended ?" rather than "will BTC recover ?"

Things are also much more promising than February 2nd, as we got more spring in weaknesses. If you took the same trade as us, you are in from below 6100, and you have margin to see things come. Also did some scalping on Telegram using this chart. Never forget that bear and bull markets have exactly as many opportunities

Stay frosty

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Kommentar: Annnnnd second touch of the resistance, just like last time. Scalpers can take profit. This is an important moment, as the real fear of missing out could start, or the bleed to an expanded wave 5

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Kommentar: Currently at 7600, I am liquidating my swing trade positions from below 6100 to be safe

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Kommentar: Touched 8300$ on most exchanges, and we are hitting the ex-support of the downchannel, now a major resistance

Momentum is good, but we are at maximum risk point for any short term trader

Most probable scenario for me, is some more bull to 8400-8500, and a corrective wave to around 7000$ before resuming (temporary) uptrend to 9-10k. After that is to be seen depending on momentum.
Going down now lower than 7k would mean an accumulation period around 5500-7000, while going more up now, extending the wave is a very bullish sign of reversal. Very unlikely due to volume, but possible

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Kommentar:
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Now, your move, BTC
Kommentar: Resistance was a big wall in the face, as expected
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Now, we will see if it extends, giving overall momentum bullish signal, or not
I expect not, but the volume we saw yesterday might prove it enough to give some more bullish price action

Daytraders/scalpers should wait for some confirmation or pullback
Investors and swingers that missed my signal to buy below 6100 should be on the lookout for the pullback
Kommentar: We had our bull to 8400, even extended to 8600 on some exchanges, very good. Now weakness.

levels to watch :

i will sell if we go below 8150, buy if we go above 8450

biais/expectation is "short" (down to approx 7000)
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Kommentar: As this weakness continue (no new ATH, but slightly lower lows and slightly lower highs), alts are super bullish, making a beautiful green market, as expected by the usual cycle "btc bull, btc stable, alts bull, alts stable, btc dump"

Excellent month, just like december and january for us

Congratulations to all !

This is a sign of (temporary) reversal. We will probably see higher highs in the next weeks (but probably not new ATH yet)
Kommentar: Remember :

In bull market, every uptrend is innocent until proven guilty
BUT,
In bear market, every uptrend is guilty until proven innocent
Kommentar: Both most likely patterns, and guideline as we either "distribute" the spoils of the 6000$ dip, or "reaccumulate" as more investors feel the market is safe again. Sentiment is mixed between shorters feeling 3k is near, and investors feeling reversal is here

NASDAQ situation will most likely influence the outcome

Biais is in general bullish short term, due to the strength displayed the last days
We are keeping the invest stack long from 6100 this time (no EJECT button yet), but we liquidated almost all of our swing trade positions, and are doing "hit & run" quick trades like our XRP trade and quick 5% scalps
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Kommentar: Rebounded well in our zone. Now we are approaching the decision time slowly. Look for signs of strength of weakness

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Kommentar: we are back over the mean line, you can start selling the short term stack if you want to lock profits with +12% (MUCH more if you followed my xrp trade instead, and then sold for bitcoins at 0.000134btc as I analysed). Continue to monitor carefully and move the stop losses if you are away from the computer/phone for too long

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Kommentar: So far so good

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Kommentar: So far so good²
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Kommentar: Hugging the upper line, I expect a small pullback now or soon, to reload, so I'm selling the 8400$ stack at 9735$

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Kommentar: "Buy the F***** dip"

But also know when to get out to be safe

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Kommentar: Careful, bitcoin just broke uptrend
A consolidation while alts surge would be more logical in terms of previous cycles, but be ready for a drop too (probably more a pullback rather than a dump)

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Kommentar: Situation chart :

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In the middle of the channel, losing steam a bit. We can count the waves up, and it's currently stalling while alts surge a little bit there and there

I moved my stop loss right below the support, I don't like the triple top and re approaching the trendline so fast after testing it. However, my target was 11500, so I still expect one more weak wave up. But you better sell early than late !
Kommentar: Target not reached on my exchange, 11400 was the top instead of 11500 ! Too bad

But my last swing stack got liquidated by the stop loss at almost 11 000, below the support, at the same time I gave my trade on the shorter term idea

We are near the big resistance, so I will only daytrade/scalp few % on 5min timeframes on alts until we get a clear bull signal (huge pierce + pullback) or get a good swing trade opportunity on the way down, also on alts to get the "leveraged" effect of alt/btc recovery (first probable stop, 9800$)
Kommentar: A follower told me that on my own map, the blue line was at 11250 and not 11500. Silly me. My bad

Here we are, situation chart :

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Dangerous situation. I will work on a new map as soon as the market finds its new direction. Stay frosty
Trade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht: I'm travelling so I can't draw for now

Sum up of the situation :

After the recent drop of 6100$ our investment portfolio is up of almost 100%, and we reduced our altcoin exposure, since btc is leading the charge of the recovery (and if btc dumps, alts will too, even more, anyway...)

We sold the swing trade stacks up to 11k, and are daytrading the uptrend, buying pullbacks, and selling quickly for few %, until 12900. There the most probable scenario we are looking for is an ABC quite big pullback down to around 9000$, before more bullish uptrend to 15-17k (target depend on momentum and deepness of the pullback)

Alternate scenario is a trend reversal between now (11700) and 13000 to continue downtrend to around 4700 levels. This scenario is unlikely

Third scenario is a pure fomo to 1 000 000$ (Just kidding). No, the third scenario is a straight light up with a parabolic wave 5 to 17k, and then stalling, but it is also unlikely (but would be amazingly good for altcoins)
Either way, we sit on much more money to buy the dips or trade the downtrend, or invest in good alts once btc finishes its show, and a bigger investment portfolio overall, so win-win. Good job!

I will make a new idea soon, unless some weird event occurs until 12900

Stay frosty
Kommentar: Just got home, and started working on a new idea

Just a quick update to say we are slowly entering **SHORT TERM** oversold territory
It's not a buy opportunity (or a very very aggressive one), but it's definitly a "close your shorts, or reduce exposure, or move the stop loss" signal in my opinion

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Kommentar: Very short term

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Kommentar: Mid term, looking bearish

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Pllllllllease start new threads on all your posts, it takes me 5 minutes to scroll this far to get to new posts. In this world the data is only valid or relevant for a short period anyway. Just my 2 cents worth.
+2 Antworten
@toddreg, Crap, didn't realise how long it was already!
Will do, thanks for your feedback and sorry for the inconvenience
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Nice catch phrase bulls x bears. LOL
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Nidalas PRO TomBrazil
@TomBrazil, :-)
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Decent breakout, decent strength, relatively low volume, I expect BTC to go up until around the 3rd February to the yellow up circle. But mostly, it should give alts some breather as I expect most good ones to rise or recover

Be careful of fakeouts, but for now steam seems enough to continue well this week
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I think scenario 2 is most likely. It's just a repeat of 2014..and 2010. 75%ish drops each time..then several month to years consolidation. Then 10x higher again.
+1 Antworten
Nidalas PRO josephtse
@josephtse, We will see ! Best scenario is one where btc is stable, so alts can grow.

However, even if we get a bear market, for me it is unlikely to be years before the next bullrun, if you look at the long term chart. Most of these bull runs come in two waves with a strong correction in between
+1 Antworten
This is great work !!! Thank you so much
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Nidalas PRO joejjbitt
@joejjbitt, Thanks! I appreciate it
+1 Antworten
Regarding the last chart you posted, you might be right and I hope you are.
Thanks for sharing!
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