Just to reiterate what I pointed out in my previous post: 8k is the bottom!
Here's a list of reasons
Trading:
The "resistance" comes only from spoofing on GDAX.
Most executed orders area buy orders.
Whales that have sold at the top need to get back in to profit some more.
Nobody benefits from "zero-dollar bitcoin", perhaps with the exception of "investment gurus" who want to sell you books.
Sensational posts immediately get 10k+ views & all comments are flattering. Same on Reddit. When small investors are the most afraid, the market has reached the bottom.
Trend:
At the beginning of a market cycle, the sentiment is still bearish & news still negative. The market always work like this.
Man makes news. What news is made & which part of it is emphasized depend on the market (or market makers / moneyed-interests).
Cryptocurrency will surely have a bright future. To think that world leaders would resist it is foolish, like Louis XVI foolish. Power comes from riding the tide of history (like Napoleon) but resisting it.
TA:
We have not & IMO will not breach the long-term trend line.
We have not & IMO will not breach 200D SMA.
We have corrected equal % since breaching the neckline of the H&S as from ATH to neckline (see chart).
We have fallen equal % since falling out of the bear pennant (see chart).
That there's a second time we touch 8k (go briefly below) is natural (and mentioned in my previous post: see Related Ideas).
8k is the bottom.
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Forgot to mention:
Tether being a "scam" is FUD. That exchanges hold a couple of billions in cash is pretty normal.
Bitfinex being a "scam" is FUD. My problem with it is that there are too many bots trading there. Their trading engine is great. Their service needs improvement but not the worst of all.
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Isn't it amazing all the "big short" experts come out after bitcoin already fell 60%?
Even suppose it goes to 0 (because no matter what their charts tell them, it's not going to be negative)...
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At this point, news from tomorrow MUST before bullish.
Otherwise, we can sell everything & come back next year.
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Very low volume, no bounce.
However, since we just breached the long-term trend line, & I'm personally in despair, I think there's a chance we're already in the "DESPAIR" phase of the bubble blowout.
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All I'm hoping is that the whales haven't overplayed their hand, that they haven't lost control.
Because as long as they're still in control, price will bounce at some point.
If they've lost control & small investors are so fearful, it's going to be a crypto depression.
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About China's ban on crypto:
I just did a quick search in Chinese. Why can't I find anything about China banning access to exchanges? All I found is that an official saying blockchain is the future?
Fuck the fake news media. They think people outside China don't know Chinese so they make up all the fake news about China. This is why every time it's "China" that bans crypto. They can't say US bans it because everyone reads English.
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Was thinking the "F" would turn into a red heart as it does in chat :)
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Hope we go at least to 9300. Then we could have an inverted H&S
Dark days for us believers man, love your analyst DrJLT.
I hope you are doing good and the charts is not messing up your mood,
worst case scenario; we go broke. we still live.
but i think this technology is here to stay, and my personal believe is that we see jupiter prices in years. the market moves in waves, but you know this.
yes, bounces are weak asfk. did some shorting. still large position on long, sad to see im down 60% but f*ck it tbh.
i got a fiat stack to buy cheap alts with.
good luck my friend
gusccbb
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Hi, do you think that BTC below EMA200 daily and fighting EMA100 3 days, is it a background and that it can reverse trend or is it just a dead cat bounce? Tomorrow there will be news of Senado USA meeting with SEC and this can have a big impact in a market with panico. Where will we go?
Two days ago I saw some harmonic patterns that suggested some further bearish moves, but I didn't post it because I didn't want to spread FUD (I'm neck-deep on bitfinex; my margin positions have gone so red & my collateral dropped so much that I've been day-trading to manage it). You can have a look at my NEOUSD post. Basically, if NEO falls to $75 we'd have a bat, to $50 we'd have a crab. IMHO, TA = chart + sentiment. Right now, I can't say that the sentiment has turned bullish, but I hope we can bounce from here & try to close above 200SMA. EMA is way past (SMA is 7800; EMA is 8800).
The news could have big impact, but really depends on how it's spun.
We can guess that it's probably more regulation, more tax. We can spin it as recognition of crypto as a legit asset, or we can spin it as more FUD.
DrJLT
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@DrJLT, not a fan of DJT, but his call of "fake news media" resonates (even though his favorite media outlets are also fake news IMHO)
DrJLT
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@DrJLT, like the Nunes memo: I glanced over it; it said nothing in there. Some media claim this exonerates DJT; some claim this gives legitimacy to the investigation.
They can spin it however they want. All sides win.
gusccbb
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@DrJLT, Thank you. Like many I am also confused. At least save capital. Now I am questioning myself if I enter or leave definitively. I do not see how the rules of the game will go forward. I observe that the market is very manipulated.
DrJLT
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@gusccbb, other markets are the same. the growth potential here is still quite attractive. next time, pull out fast & take some profit after 200% gains or so.
gusccbb
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@DrJLT, "the experience is a comb that you get when you were stripped"..
leondb
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You are not alone. If tomorrow turns out bad... Rekt.
DrJLT
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@leondb, Yes, if we have a "three dark crows" that's very bearish. More FUD will depress the market for months.
I hope you are doing good and the charts is not messing up your mood,
worst case scenario; we go broke. we still live.
but i think this technology is here to stay, and my personal believe is that we see jupiter prices in years. the market moves in waves, but you know this.
yes, bounces are weak asfk. did some shorting. still large position on long, sad to see im down 60% but f*ck it tbh.
i got a fiat stack to buy cheap alts with.
good luck my friend