Etherik

Bitcoin consolidation

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
312 2 4
On arrive en fin de figure de consolidation.
On a dessiné un bearish pennant , avec une consolidation sur les volumes qui confirme le pattern.
Les probas typiques de ce genre de pattern sont une continuation à la baisse à 55% de chances (les 45% étant partagés entre hausse et poursuite en range).

Si on break vers le bas, une première cible sera l'extension de la hauteur du triangle, qui nous amènerait à un niveau de support solide dans la zone des 7k5-8k2$, appuyé à la fois par le niveau de 100% de retracement de l'impulsion du 20 novembre, et un retracement plus grand de l'impulsion de mi septembre, les deux s'alignant sur le bord inférieur du canal haussier suivi depuis plus d'un an, et étant soutenus par la SMA200.

Une cible plus agressive serait un développement complet de la leg entrante du pennant , qui nous amènerait autour de 4k8$, qui se trouve être un autre niveau de support solide. Mais atteindre un tel niveau sans un rebond immédiat marquant un rejet de ce prix marquerait l'installation nette d'un bear market durable.
Kommentar: Sorry non-French speakers.

We're reaching the end of a consolidation figure, drawing a bearish pennant, which is confirmed by volumes going down.
Typical probabilities for this pattern are 55% chance of breaking lower.

If we break down, my first target would be, from the height of the triangle, about $7k5-$8k2. It also happens to be the initial target of previous symmetrical triangle.
And the 100% retracement level from November 20th's impulse. And also a retracement level from September's larger impulse.
And the lower side of the uptrend we've been following for over a year now.
And 200-day moving average would probably sustain the price around that level.

A more agressive target would be full extension of the left leg to the down side, to around $4k8, another solid support level. But reaching that price level without an immediate bounce and rejection would probably mark an entry into a durable bear market.
Sorry non-French speakers.

We're reaching the end of a consolidation figure, drawing a bearish pennant, which is confirmed by volumes going down.
Typical probabilities for this pattern are 55% chance of breaking lower.

If we break down, my first target would be, from the height of the triangle, about $7k5-$8k2. It also happens to be the initial target of previous symmetrical triangle.
And the 100% retracement level from November 20th's impulse. And also a retracement level from September's larger impulse.
And the lower side of the uptrend we've been following for over a year now.
And 200-day moving average would probably sustain the price around that level.

A more agressive target would be full extension of the left leg to the down side, to around $4k8, another solid support level. But reaching that price level without an immediate bounce and rejection would probably mark an entry into a durable bear market.
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